Game Recap: VAN 4, SJS 3 (SO), April 11, 2026

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Game Recap

VAN4

Final/SOSat, Apr 11, 2026Every game that night

SJS3

VAN beat SJS 4-3 in a shootout, with the chances close: 3.30 expected goals to 2.59. VAN outshot SJS 41 to 32. I. Chernyshov led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. DeBrusk had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. K. Lankinen stopped 29 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
VAN	0	2	1	1	4
SJS	1	1	1	0	3

1st 16:19SJSI. Chernyshov0.19 xG
2nd 5:56VANM. Rossi0.09 xG
2nd 9:02SJST. Toffoli0.01 xG
2nd 17:37VANJ. DeBruskPP0.14 xG
3rd 12:44SJSI. Chernyshov0.13 xG
3rd 17:00VANT. BluegerPP0.11 xG

Team Stats

VANSJS

41Shots on goal32

3.30Expected goals2.59

65Shot attempts54

265v5 shots on goal30

2/4Power play0/2

18Hits28

12Blocked shots13

4Penalty minutes6

20Giveaways16

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 3.30 xGSJS 2.59 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN40 on goal, 3 scored

SJS31 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rossi	C	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	18:52	4:54
E. Pettersson	C	0	1	1	7	1	0	-2	0	18:33	4:56
J. DeBrusk	LW	1	0	1	8	1	0	0	2	17:46	4:50
T. Blueger	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	16:15	0:14
L. Karlsson	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	13:48	0:52
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	21:30	5:17
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	1	2	2	-2	0	17:11	0:44
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	15:15	1:19
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:59	0:00
T. Mueller	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	13:02	0:00
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:24	0:00
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:20	0:00
F. Hronek	D	0	1	1	6	2	1	-2	0	30:55	5:02
V. Mancini	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	14:19	0:00
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	22:52	1:21
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-2	0	21:47	0:00
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	18:45	0:59
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	13:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	32	29	3	.906	64:56	Win
N. Tolopilo	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	0	2	2	5	1	2	+2	0	22:14	3:19
I. Chernyshov	LW	2	0	2	4	0	2	+2	0	17:59	0:31
T. Toffoli	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	12:04	1:29
M. Misa	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	11:58	0:30
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	4	2	1	+2	0	22:26	3:19
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	21:35	3:18
W. Eklund	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	2	18:32	2:19
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	17:26	0:31
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	13:26	0:00
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	12:43	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	10:51	0:00
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	9:18	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	2	20:44	1:16
S. Dickinson	D	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	17:02	0:44
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	+1	0	24:27	0:00
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	0	5	0	+1	2	22:43	0:00
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	19:07	0:00
N. Leddy	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	41	38	3	.927	65:00	OT loss
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1L. Karlsson12:56D. O'Connor13:48M. Rossi13:00

Line 2B. Boeser14:23L. Ohgren14:44E. Pettersson11:20

Line 3M. Sasson12:24T. Mueller13:02A. Räty13:38

Line 4T. Blueger13:07J. DeBrusk11:19N. Hoglander12:16

Pair 1F. Hronek21:40Z. Buium20:50

Pair 2M. Pettersson18:25T. Willander16:15

Pair 3V. Mancini14:19E. Pettersson12:54

SJS

Line 1W. Smith18:15M. Celebrini17:31I. Chernyshov17:02

Line 2W. Eklund14:51A. Wennberg14:19K. Sherwood14:06

Line 3T. Toffoli10:35M. Misa11:24C. Graf10:16

Line 4B. Goodrow9:56A. Gaudette9:14Z. Ostapchuk8:46

Pair 1S. Mukhamadullin17:22M. Ferraro18:21

Pair 2D. Orlov17:42V. Desharnais18:18

Pair 3N. Leddy16:08S. Dickinson16:14

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamKiefer Sherwood SJS Faces VAN, his team until Jan 20261 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 3.1, SJS 3.4	VAN 4, SJS 3
Total goals	6.5	7
Shots on goal	VAN 25.4, SJS 28.1	VAN 41, SJS 32
Win chance	SJS 55%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS M. Celebrini	3.5	5	1.42	2	38%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.4	8	0.58	1	27%	1
SJS W. Smith	2.3	4	0.96	0	29%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.2	2	0.77	0	31%	0
SJS K. Sherwood	2.1	1	0.55	0	24%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.1	4	0.70	1	26%	1
VAN D. O'Connor	2.0	3	0.48	0	21%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.8	3	0.64	0	17%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.8	7	0.81	1	28%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.7	6	0.68	1	11%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.6	2	0.53	1	20%	0
VAN L. Ohgren	1.6	1	0.42	0	17%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.6	2	0.61	0	21%	0
VAN M. Rossi	1.5	1	0.68	1	23%	1
VAN T. Blueger	1.4	1	0.44	1	14%	1
SJS I. Chernyshov	1.4	4	0.54	2	17%	2
SJS D. Orlov	1.4	0	0.60	1	11%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.2	1	0.69	0	18%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.1	0	0.32	0	16%	0
SJS M. Misa	1.1	3	0.46	1	16%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.1	2	0.32	0	7%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	1.1	1	0.27	1	4%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.1	0	0.27	0	13%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.0	0	0.34	0	17%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	1.0	1	0.31	0	8%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.0	1	0.30	0	14%	0
VAN T. Willander	0.9	1	0.38	0	9%	0
VAN Z. Buium	0.9	2	0.34	0	7%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	0.8	2	0.34	0	5%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	0	0.19	0	9%	0
SJS V. Desharnais	0.7	0	0.18	0	2%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.7	0	0.13	0	7%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.7	2	0.16	0	4%	0
SJS N. Leddy	0.7	1	0.31	0	5%	0
VAN V. Mancini	0.6	1	0.18	1	4%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.7 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.