Game Recap: VAN 2, SJS 3, October 29, 2026

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Game Recap

VAN2

FinalThu, Oct 29, 2026Every game that night

SJS3

SJS beat VAN 3-2, with the chances close: 2.38 expected goals to 2.77. W. Smith led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). Y. Askarov stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VAN	1	1	0	2
SJS	0	0	3	3

1st 13:21VAND. O'Connor0.46 xG
2nd 18:56VANL. Ohgren0.05 xG
3rd 8:00SJSW. SmithPP0.06 xG
3rd 10:39SJSW. Smith0.22 xG
3rd 10:50SJSM. Marchment0.02 xG

Team Stats

VANSJS

25Shots on goal24

2.77Expected goals2.38

49Shot attempts47

175v5 shots on goal14

0/3Power play1/5

17Hits27

10Blocked shots13

10Penalty minutes6

19Giveaways17

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 2.77 xGSJS 2.38 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN25 on goal, 2 scored

SJS24 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Pettersson	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	21:25	4:26
D. O'Connor	LW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	17:21	0:03
L. Ohgren	LW	1	0	1	3	3	0	0	2	13:21	0:56
F. Chytil	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	22:13	3:35
J. Lekkerimäki	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	4	17:14	4:24
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:03	4:29
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:26	3:28
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	14:29	1:28
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	11:15	1:34
A. Bains	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	2	10:39	0:00
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:37	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:36	1:31
F. Hronek	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	0	27:03	4:37
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	20:48	0:00
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	0	19:55	0:06
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18:23	0:00
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	15:02	1:23
V. Mancini	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Meriläinen	24	21	3	.875	56:27	Loss
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Smith	C	2	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	17:44	6:09
M. Marchment	LW	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	0	17:36	6:05
M. Celebrini	C	0	1	1	6	0	1	+1	0	22:56	6:09
K. Sherwood	LW	0	1	1	3	4	0	+1	0	18:01	2:45
I. Stenberg	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	17:59	6:19
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	17:42	0:00
M. Misa	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	14:13	2:49
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:29	2:41
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	11:41	0:00
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	11:36	0:00
F. Bystedt	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	10:28	0:12
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:12	2:29
M. Kesselring	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	2	19:01	0:12
D. Orlov	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	-1	0	18:11	5:51
N. Allan	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	13:06	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	24:00	3:10
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	1	6	1	+1	0	23:01	0:11
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	14:27	0:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	25	23	2	.920	59:37	Win
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1D. O'Connor13:07F. Chytil13:26J. Lekkerimäki11:11

Line 2J. DeBrusk10:01E. Pettersson10:55B. Boeser8:14

Line 3L. Ohgren12:08L. Karlsson10:13M. Rossi9:14

Line 4A. Bains10:35M. Sasson10:27P. Cotter9:05

Pair 1J. Oleksiak17:27T. Willander19:49

Pair 2F. Hronek14:48E. Pettersson12:30

Pair 3Z. Buium12:45V. Mancini9:20

SJS

Line 1M. Celebrini14:29C. Graf14:15I. Stenberg11:40

Line 2M. Marchment10:33M. Misa10:47W. Smith11:05

Line 3T. Toffoli9:31F. Bystedt10:16K. Sherwood11:55

Line 4B. Goodrow8:13T. Dellandrea8:54A. Gaudette7:37

Pair 1D. Nurse17:14M. Kesselring16:18

Pair 2J. Trouba14:24S. Dickinson13:29

Pair 3D. Orlov12:12N. Allan12:23

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 19 overs hit (42%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
SJS M. Celebrini	3.5	-120	-108	6	Over
VAN F. Chytil	2.5	+140	-185	3	Over
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.5	+130	-150	2	Under
SJS M. Marchment	2.5	+160	-180	3	Over
SJS T. Toffoli	2.5	+154	-195	0	Under
SJS W. Smith	2.5	-105	-114	3	Over
VAN B. Boeser	1.5	-140	+130	1	Under
SJS C. Graf	1.5	-115	-110	1	Under
SJS D. Nurse	1.5	-140	+120	1	Under
VAN D. O'Connor	1.5	+110	-135	4	Over
SJS D. Orlov	1.5	+155	-175	1	Under
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	+114	-130	3	Over
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	1.5	-110	-110	1	Under
SJS J. Trouba	1.5	-125	+110	0	Under
SJS K. Sherwood	1.5	-175	+145	3	Over
VAN L. Karlsson	1.5	-135	+115	0	Under
SJS M. Kesselring	1.5	+115	-135	0	Under
SJS M. Misa	1.5	+125	-155	2	Over
VAN M. Rossi	1.5	+120	-175	0	Under

4 of 34 overs hit (12%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
VAN A. Bains	0.5	+800	-1400	0	Under
SJS A. Gaudette	0.5	+460	-800	0	Under
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	+230	-320	0	Under
SJS B. Goodrow	0.5	+850	-1400	0	Under
SJS C. Graf	0.5	+310	-475	0	Under
SJS D. Nurse	0.5	+1100	-2000	0	Under
VAN D. O'Connor	0.5	+440	-750	1	Over
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+650	-1600	0	Under
VAN E. Pettersson	0.5	+1100	–	0	Under
SJS F. Bystedt	0.5	+480	-800	0	Under
VAN F. Chytil	0.5	+380	-500	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+650	-1400	0	Under
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	+230	-290	0	Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+325	-400	0	Under
VAN J. Oleksiak	0.5	+1500	-2800	0	Under
SJS J. Trouba	0.5	+750	-1200	0	Under
SJS K. Sherwood	0.5	+290	-390	0	Under
VAN L. Karlsson	0.5	+410	-600	0	Under
VAN L. Ohgren	0.5	+600	-1200	1	Over
SJS M. Celebrini	0.5	+105	-140	0	Under
SJS M. Kesselring	0.5	+1400	-2800	0	Under
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+250	-320	1	Over
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+340	-600	0	Under
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+430	-550	0	Under
VAN M. Sasson	0.5	+725	-900	0	Under
SJS N. Allan	0.5	+1600	-3500	0	Under
VAN P. Cotter	0.5	+550	-1000	0	Under
SJS S. Dickinson	0.5	+1300	-3500	0	Under
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.5	+750	-1400	0	Under
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+280	-350	0	Under
VAN T. Willander	0.5	+1700	-2800	0	Under
VAN V. Mancini	0.5	+1800	-4000	0	Under
SJS W. Smith	0.5	+180	-220	2	Over
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+900	-2500	0	Under

5 of 17 overs hit (29%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	+158	-190	0	Under
SJS C. Graf	0.5	+240	-295	0	Under
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+146	-175	1	Over
SJS F. Bystedt	0.5	+275	-380	0	Under
VAN F. Chytil	0.5	+215	-275	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+115	-135	1	Over
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	+215	-260	0	Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+255	-275	0	Under
SJS J. Trouba	0.5	+175	-225	0	Under
SJS K. Sherwood	0.5	+220	-255	1	Over
VAN L. Karlsson	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
SJS M. Celebrini	0.5	-155	+140	1	Over
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+185	-200	1	Over
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+215	-275	0	Under
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+215	-235	0	Under
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+250	-275	0	Under
SJS W. Smith	0.5	+142	-155	0	Under

5 of 17 overs hit (29%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
SJS M. Celebrini	1.5	+115	-135	1	Under
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	-132	+115	0	Under
SJS C. Graf	0.5	+130	-135	0	Under
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+110	-115	1	Over
SJS F. Bystedt	0.5	+165	-220	0	Under
VAN F. Chytil	0.5	+120	-135	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	-105	-105	1	Over
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	-118	+100	0	Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+126	-145	0	Under
SJS J. Trouba	0.5	+135	-160	0	Under
SJS K. Sherwood	0.5	+110	-130	1	Over
VAN L. Karlsson	0.5	+165	-205	0	Under
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	-115	+105	2	Over
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+120	-145	0	Under
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+126	-150	0	Under
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+110	-132	0	Under
SJS W. Smith	0.5	-166	+155	2	Over

3 of 17 overs hit (18%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
SJS A. Gaudette	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	+235	-295	0	Under
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+250	-350	1	Over
VAN F. Chytil	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+210	-275	0	Under
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	+300	-350	0	Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+280	-550	0	Under
SJS J. Trouba	0.5	+400	-1100	0	Under
SJS K. Sherwood	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
VAN L. Karlsson	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
SJS M. Celebrini	0.5	+135	-175	0	Under
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+310	-450	1	Over
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+400	-625	0	Under
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+380	-600	0	Under
SJS W. Smith	0.5	+230	-290	1	Over
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
SJS Y. Askarov	22.5	-110	-120	23	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamKiefer Sherwood SJS Faces VAN, his team until Jan 20261 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 3.0, SJS 3.6	VAN 2, SJS 3
Total goals	6.6	5
Shots on goal	VAN 24.7, SJS 29.9	VAN 25, SJS 24
Win chance	SJS 59%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS M. Celebrini	3.9	6	1.54	1	41%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.7	2	0.66	0	30%	0
VAN F. Chytil	2.6	3	0.58	0	25%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.4	3	0.91	2	29%	2
VAN B. Boeser	2.1	1	0.76	0	31%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.0	0	0.59	0	23%	0
SJS K. Sherwood	2.0	3	0.52	1	21%	0
SJS M. Marchment	1.9	3	0.77	2	27%	1
VAN E. Pettersson	1.9	3	0.90	1	30%	0
SJS J. Trouba	1.8	0	0.45	0	9%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.8	0	0.54	0	20%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.7	1	0.62	0	23%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.7	4	0.40	1	19%	1
SJS D. Nurse	1.7	1	0.33	0	9%	0
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	1.7	1	0.58	0	23%	0
SJS I. Stenberg	1.6	1	0.65	0	21%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.6	3	0.65	1	11%	0
SJS M. Kesselring	1.6	0	0.32	1	6%	0
SJS M. Misa	1.4	2	0.56	0	18%	0
VAN L. Ohgren	1.4	3	0.38	1	16%	1
VAN M. Rossi	1.3	0	0.55	0	21%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.3	1	0.33	0	16%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	1.2	0	0.33	0	5%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.1	1	0.49	1	9%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.1	0	0.29	0	10%	0
VAN J. Oleksiak	1.0	0	0.27	0	7%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.0	0	0.24	0	8%	0
VAN M. Sasson	0.9	0	0.28	0	14%	0
VAN T. Willander	0.9	3	0.33	0	8%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.9	0	0.20	0	9%	0
VAN P. Cotter	0.8	1	0.29	0	15%	0
VAN Z. Buium	0.8	0	0.29	0	6%	0
SJS N. Allan	0.8	0	0.31	1	7%	0
VAN A. Bains	0.7	0	0.17	0	7%	0
VAN V. Mancini	0.6	1	0.15	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.