STL beat VAN 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 2.69 expected goals to 1.19. STL outshot VAN 29 to 18. B. Boeser led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). R. Faksa had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. J. Binnington stopped 15 of 18.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| STL | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
- 2nd 15:47STLZ. Bolduc0.01 xG
- 3rd 1:11VANK. Sherwood0.01 xG
- 3rd 6:35VANB. Boeser0.01 xG
- 3rd 9:28STLT. Tucker0.01 xG
- 3rd 9:52STLD. Holloway0.23 xG
- 3rd 19:56VANB. Boeser0.08 xG
- OT 3:42STLP. Broberg0.19 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 1.19 xGSTL 2.69 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:32 | 0:45 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:56 | 0:49 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:57 | 0:00 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:58 | 0:36 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:06 | 0:45 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:44 | 0:34 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:52 | 0:43 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:00 |
| D. Joshua | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:41 | 0:00 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:22 | 0:00 |
| N. Aman | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:58 | 0:00 |
| L. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:26 | 0:30 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 30:18 | 1:19 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 27:14 | 0:34 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:44 | 0:00 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 0 | 21:37 | 0:00 |
| D. Forbort | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:08 | 0:00 |
| E. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:21 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 29 | 25 | 4 | .862 | 62:17 | OT loss |
| A. Silovs | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:57 | 1:02 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 17:57 | 0:59 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:33 | 1:00 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:59 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:36 | 0:16 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 13:16 | 0:00 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:46 | 0:19 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:00 | 0:17 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:02 | 1:03 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:09 | 0:00 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:44 | 0:00 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:23 | 0:00 |
| T. Tucker | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | +2 | 0 | 15:49 | 0:00 |
| P. Broberg | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24:57 | 0:10 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 2 | 24:48 | 1:09 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:42 | 0:20 |
| N. Leddy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:42 | 0:00 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:46 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 18 | 15 | 3 | .833 | 63:42 | Win |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 2.7, STL 3.0 | VAN 3, STL 4 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 23.7, STL 26.1 | VAN 18, STL 29 |
| Win chance | STL 55% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.3 | 4 | 0.76 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.2 | 1 | 0.96 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.1 | 2 | 0.68 | 2 | 23% | 1 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.0 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 1.9 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 1.9 | 4 | 0.68 | 2 | 28% | 2 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.8 | 3 | 0.94 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.7 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 1.7 | 0 | 0.76 | 2 | 27% | 0 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.6 | 1 | 0.60 | 2 | 20% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.5 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.5 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.5 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.4 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.3 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.3 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.3 | 3 | 0.32 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.2 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.1 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.0 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.0 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 1.0 | 0 | 0.35 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 0.9 | 4 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 0.9 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN L. Karlsson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN D. Joshua | 0.9 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 0.9 | 2 | 0.15 | 2 | 6% | 1 |
| STL N. Leddy | 0.7 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 0.7 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN D. Forbort | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 0.6 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VAN N. Aman | 0.6 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.