Game Recap: VAN 4, STL 3 (SO), October 30, 2025

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Game Recap

VAN4

Final/SOThu, Oct 30, 2025Every game that night

STL3

VAN beat STL 4-3 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 1.75 expected goals to 3.37. STL outshot VAN 39 to 18. K. Sherwood scored three for VAN. K. Sherwood had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. K. Lankinen stopped 36 of 39.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
VAN	1	1	1	1	4
STL	1	1	1	0	3

1st 3:23STLD. Holloway0.10 xG
1st 13:08VANK. SherwoodPP0.15 xG
2nd 0:58STLJ. SnuggerudPP0.03 xG
2nd 10:42VANK. Sherwood0.16 xG
3rd 7:04VANK. Sherwood0.03 xG
3rd 10:48STLP. SuterPP0.16 xG

Team Stats

VANSTL

18Shots on goal39

1.75Expected goals3.37

49Shot attempts72

155v5 shots on goal26

1/3Power play2/3

21Hits17

16Blocked shots14

4Penalty minutes6

14Giveaways10

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 1.75 xGSTL 3.37 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN17 on goal, 3 scored

STL39 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Sherwood	LW	3	0	3	5	4	0	+1	0	24:12	2:34
D. O'Connor	LW	0	2	2	0	1	0	+2	0	16:19	0:00
E. Kane	LW	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	19:47	3:31
A. Räty	C	0	1	1	0	2	3	+1	0	10:33	0:00
E. Pettersson	C	0	0	0	2	2	2	-1	0	23:29	3:14
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	22:59	2:46
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	18:22	2:35
A. Bains	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	14:02	2:00
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:28	2:22
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	13:19	1:42
M. MacEachern	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:18	0:00
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0:33	0:00
M. Pettersson	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	4	23:18	0:00
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	25:40	2:50
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	24:12	0:14
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	19:12	2:07
P. Joseph	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	15:19	0:00
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	12:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	39	36	3	.923	65:00	Win
T. Demko	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Suter	C	1	1	2	3	1	1	+1	0	18:22	2:28
O. Sundqvist	C	0	2	2	2	1	1	+1	0	14:28	2:19
D. Holloway	LW	1	0	1	3	3	0	+1	0	22:30	3:29
J. Snuggerud	RW	1	0	1	4	0	2	0	0	20:14	3:08
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	21:01	3:02
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	20:15	3:25
J. Kyrou	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	19:48	2:42
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	16:36	2:45
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	13:46	0:00
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	8:51	0:00
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	7:52	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	7:18	0:00
C. Fowler	D	0	2	2	2	0	2	0	0	23:41	2:23
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	3	2	2	-1	0	24:43	0:00
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	24:31	3:27
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	2	23:39	0:02
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:20	0:00
L. Mailloux	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	4	10:45	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	18	15	3	.833	64:09	OT loss
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1E. Pettersson14:59K. Sherwood15:45J. DeBrusk16:15

Line 2M. Sasson10:07A. Bains10:57L. Karlsson11:03

Line 3E. Kane15:24L. Reichel14:01M. MacEachern12:18

Line 4D. O'Connor13:11A. Räty9:52

Pair 1M. Pettersson21:07T. Willander15:37

Pair 2T. Myers17:16P. Joseph14:39

Pair 3E. Pettersson12:07F. Hronek15:29

STL

Line 1B. Schenn15:31P. Buchnevich14:25J. Snuggerud15:52

Line 2D. Holloway15:25P. Suter12:14O. Sundqvist10:00

Line 3M. Joseph11:56J. Kyrou15:06D. Dvorsky13:51

Line 4N. Bjugstad6:32A. Toropchenko5:48N. Walker7:17

Pair 1C. Parayko19:34P. Broberg19:45

Pair 2J. Faulk17:43C. Fowler18:26

Pair 3L. Mailloux10:45T. Tucker10:30

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamPius Suter STL Faces VAN, his team until Apr 20251 G, 1 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 2.8, STL 3.2	VAN 4, STL 3
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	VAN 23.4, STL 25.9	VAN 18, STL 39
Win chance	STL 56%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
STL J. Kyrou	2.8	3	0.84	0	33%	0
VAN E. Kane	2.4	1	0.56	1	27%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.3	3	0.75	1	25%	1
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.2	0	0.60	0	28%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.1	0	0.77	0	31%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.9	4	0.82	0	27%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.9	5	0.57	3	24%	3
VAN E. Pettersson	1.8	2	0.85	0	29%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.7	2	0.45	0	13%	0
STL P. Suter	1.7	3	0.52	2	21%	1
STL J. Faulk	1.6	3	0.46	0	10%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	1.6	4	0.49	1	17%	1
STL B. Schenn	1.6	1	0.62	0	21%	0
STL N. Bjugstad	1.4	2	0.30	0	14%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.4	2	0.58	2	11%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.4	1	0.51	0	7%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.3	0	0.29	2	13%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.3	3	0.38	0	11%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.2	1	0.31	0	10%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.2	1	0.27	0	11%	0
STL N. Walker	1.2	1	0.32	0	14%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.2	3	0.29	0	5%	0
VAN L. Reichel	1.1	0	0.32	0	12%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.1	0	0.31	1	16%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	1.0	2	0.36	2	12%	0
VAN M. Sasson	0.9	0	0.24	0	12%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	0.9	1	0.22	0	9%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	0.9	1	0.30	1	4%	0
STL L. Mailloux	0.8	1	0.25	0	7%	0
VAN P. Joseph	0.8	0	0.13	0	3%	0
STL T. Tucker	0.8	1	0.18	0	6%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.7	0	0.13	0	4%	0
VAN M. MacEachern	0.7	0	0.15	0	6%	0
VAN A. Bains	0.5	3	0.12	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.