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Game Recap
VAN1
WPG3
WPG beat VAN 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.60 expected goals to 1.88. K. Connor led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). L. Karlsson had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. C. Hellebuyck stopped 23 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| WPG | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
- 1st 18:55VANP. Suter0.17 xG
- 2nd 9:26WPGK. Connor0.03 xG
- 3rd 6:24WPGM. Appleton0.49 xG
- 3rd 12:11WPGC. Perfetti0.15 xG
Team Stats
VANWPG
24Shots on goal27
1.88Expected goals3.60
50Shot attempts54
195v5 shots on goal19
0/3Power play0/4
50Hits24
8Blocked shots11
6Penalty minutes4
12Giveaways13
4Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 1.88 xGWPG 3.60 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Suter | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:04 | 4:06 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:09 | 4:01 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:25 | 1:56 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:06 | 4:08 |
| D. Joshua | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:04 | 0:00 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:51 | 1:26 |
| A. Räty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:56 | 0:00 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:57 | 0:02 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:14 | 0:02 |
| J. Lekkerimäki | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:32 | 4:17 |
| L. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:01 | 1:51 |
| N. Aman | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:27 | 0:00 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:07 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 27:08 | 6:00 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:29 | 2:11 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:02 | 0:00 |
| D. Forbort | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:16 | 0:00 |
| E. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:21 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Demko | 27 | 24 | 3 | .889 | 56:40 | Loss |
| K. Lankinen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Connor | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:19 | 3:21 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:51 | 3:26 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:10 | 2:47 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:57 | 3:19 |
| M. Appleton | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:42 | 1:37 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:33 | 0:00 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:03 | 2:52 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:11 | 3:16 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:30 | 2:54 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:10 | 0:00 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:42 | 0:00 |
| D. Gustafsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:51 | 0:00 |
| C. Miller | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 16:18 | 2:38 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 27:48 | 4:55 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:13 | 0:00 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:12 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16:31 | 0:00 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13:28 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 24 | 23 | 1 | .958 | 59:31 | Win |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 2.6, WPG 3.2 | VAN 1, WPG 3 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 24.0, WPG 26.6 | VAN 24, WPG 27 |
| Win chance | WPG 61% | WPG won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 2.9 | 3 | 1.06 | 2 | 36% | 1 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.6 | 2 | 0.90 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG N. Ehlers | 2.5 | 2 | 0.85 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.0 | 2 | 0.52 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.0 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.0 | 2 | 0.79 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 1.9 | 3 | 0.64 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 1.8 | 3 | 0.99 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.7 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.6 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.6 | 1 | 0.57 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.5 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.4 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.4 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WPG M. Appleton | 1.4 | 3 | 0.35 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.3 | 2 | 0.43 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.2 | 3 | 0.27 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.2 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG C. Miller | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.1 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN J. Lekkerimäki | 1.1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG L. Schenn | 1.1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VAN A. Räty | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN L. Karlsson | 0.9 | 4 | 0.14 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 0.9 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG B. Tanev | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN D. Joshua | 0.8 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG D. Gustafsson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 0.7 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| VAN D. Forbort | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VAN N. Aman | 0.5 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.