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Game Recap
VAN2
WPG3
WPG beat VAN 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.27 expected goals to 2.21. WPG outshot VAN 36 to 23. M. Scheifele led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Scheifele had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. C. Hellebuyck stopped 21 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| WPG | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 7:28VANL. Karlsson0.07 xG
- 2nd 19:48WPGM. Scheifele0.07 xG
- 3rd 0:33VANL. Ohgren0.13 xG
- 3rd 15:12WPGG. VilardiPP0.22 xG
- OT 1:49WPGJ. Morrissey0.13 xG
Team Stats
VANWPG
23Shots on goal36
2.21Expected goals3.27
37Shot attempts71
205v5 shots on goal31
0/0Power play1/2
25Hits15
17Blocked shots5
4Penalty minutes0
24Giveaways16
3Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 2.21 xGWPG 3.27 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:08 | 0:00 |
| L. Karlsson | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:42 | 0:00 |
| L. Ohgren | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:57 | 0:00 |
| M. Sasson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 14:37 | 0:00 |
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:59 | 0:00 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:57 | 0:00 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:12 | 0:00 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:08 | 0:00 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:49 | 0:00 |
| E. Kane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:34 | 0:00 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:12 | 0:00 |
| A. Räty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:40 | 0:00 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 26:45 | 0:00 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:51 | 0:00 |
| T. Willander | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:55 | 0:00 |
| E. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:04 | 0:00 |
| Z. Buium | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:35 | 0:00 |
| V. Mancini | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:55 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 36 | 33 | 3 | .917 | 61:49 | OT loss |
| N. Tolopilo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Scheifele | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 25:07 | 2:36 |
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 25:09 | 2:38 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:22 | 2:39 |
| J. Toews | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:32 | 0:51 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:04 | 2:39 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:13 | 0:00 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:15 | 0:00 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:13 | 0:00 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:07 | 0:48 |
| I. Rosen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:24 | 0:48 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:28 | 0:00 |
| B. Lambert | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:26 | 0:49 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:27 | 2:52 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:01 | 0:00 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:14 | 0:00 |
| E. Salomonsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:28 | 0:00 |
| H. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:31 | 0:35 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:58 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 23 | 21 | 2 | .913 | 61:17 | Win |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
VAN
Line 2E. Pettersson15:23J. DeBrusk14:32N. Hoglander12:12
Line 3L. Karlsson13:42M. Sasson14:37T. Blueger14:32
Line 4E. Kane12:02D. O'Connor13:19A. Räty11:19
Pair 1M. Pettersson21:13T. Willander19:38
Pair 2F. Hronek22:48E. Pettersson19:14
Pair 3V. Mancini13:23Z. Buium16:03
WPG
Line 1M. Scheifele21:19K. Connor21:06A. Iafallo17:13
Line 2A. Lowry15:38C. Perfetti14:57G. Vilardi18:11
Line 3J. Toews10:41G. Nyquist11:19I. Rosen10:36
Line 4M. Barron11:41C. Koepke8:28B. Lambert6:37
Pair 1D. DeMelo20:14J. Morrissey20:34
Pair 2D. Samberg21:13E. Salomonsson18:28
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 2.6, WPG 3.6 | VAN 2, WPG 3 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 24.5, WPG 29.2 | VAN 23, WPG 36 |
| Win chance | WPG 67% | WPG won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.6 | 3 | 1.44 | 1 | 43% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.4 | 6 | 1.41 | 3 | 41% | 1 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 2.4 | 3 | 0.78 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.1 | 5 | 0.93 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.1 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VAN E. Kane | 2.1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 2.0 | 2 | 0.97 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 1.9 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.6 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.5 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.5 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG E. Salomonsson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN L. Ohgren | 1.4 | 4 | 0.26 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.4 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.4 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VAN L. Karlsson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.38 | 2 | 14% | 1 |
| VAN M. Rossi | 1.4 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.3 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.3 | 2 | 0.35 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG J. Toews | 1.3 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| WPG G. Nyquist | 1.2 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG C. Koepke | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN T. Willander | 1.1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN A. Räty | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN M. Sasson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG I. Rosen | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG H. Fleury | 0.9 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VAN Z. Buium | 0.9 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG B. Lambert | 0.8 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN V. Mancini | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG J. Bryson | 0.3 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.