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Game Recap
VAN2
FinalThu, Nov 5, 2026Every game that night
WPG6

WPG beat VAN 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.43 expected goals to 1.40. M. Scheifele led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Rossi had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. S. Skinner stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
VAN1012
WPG3216
  1. 1st 3:49WPGA. IafalloPP0.06 xG
  2. 1st 4:03WPGC. Koepke0.04 xG
  3. 1st 6:51VANL. Ohgren0.03 xG
  4. 1st 14:04WPGD. Mercer0.17 xG
  5. 2nd 6:52WPGN. Pionk0.20 xG
  6. 2nd 11:36WPGM. Scheifele0.41 xG
  7. 3rd 11:32WPGM. Ferraro0.06 xG
  8. 3rd 15:09VANB. Boeser0.10 xG

Team Stats

VANWPG
26Shots on goal29
1.40Expected goals3.43
48Shot attempts55
245v5 shots on goal26
0/1Power play1/3
20Hits31
10Blocked shots10
6Penalty minutes2
22Giveaways14
3Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 1.40 xGWPG 3.43 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdWPG goal, 3:49WPG goal, 4:03VAN goal, 6:51WPG goal, 14:04WPG goal, 6:52WPG goal, 11:36WPG goal, 11:32VAN goal, 15:09

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN26 on goal, 2 scored
WPG28 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. BoeserRW1013110020:020:56
J. LekkerimäkiRW0112000013:480:54
M. RossiC0117400213:390:51
L. OhgrenLW1013100012:410:51
J. QuillanC0110100012:290:00
E. PetterssonC000030-2019:050:53
J. DeBruskLW0001000017:061:09
D. O'ConnorLW0001100215:010:00
M. SassonC000010-1014:570:15
L. KarlssonC000111-1013:480:51
P. CotterLW000020-3011:520:51
B. GallagherRW000320-2011:310:13
F. HronekD000110-4025:421:09
Z. BuiumD000202+1222:020:51
E. PetterssonD000004-2021:450:00
G. BriseboisD0001100019:070:16
J. OleksiakD0000120015:320:00
V. ManciniD000100-1014:300:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Meriläinen29236.79360:00Loss
K. Lankinen000–0:00

WPG Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
K. ConnorLW022210+2218:172:55
M. ScheifeleC112321+2018:082:58
D. MercerC112100+1014:561:54
G. VilardiC011200+1016:532:57
V. BjörckC011050+1016:121:54
A. IafalloLW1011400015:441:53
C. PerfettiC011200+1015:262:59
M. BarronC0110210014:100:34
C. KoepkeLW1014200012:560:31
A. LowryC0000300014:540:00
B. YagerC000210+1013:001:50
I. RosenRW0001000012:080:33
D. DeMeloD022202+4019:300:00
N. PionkD1013320024:313:12
M. FerraroD101111+3020:460:28
H. FleuryD0114110010:480:45
D. SambergD0001310026:001:32
T. BauerD000031-1013:410:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Skinner26242.92360:00Win
N. Daws000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1B. Boeser15:51E. Pettersson14:50J. DeBrusk15:52
Line 2M. Rossi12:48J. Lekkerimäki12:54L. Ohgren11:50
Line 3D. O'Connor13:31L. Karlsson12:22J. Quillan12:21
Line 4B. Gallagher11:18P. Cotter11:01M. Sasson12:50
Pair 1F. Hronek20:10E. Pettersson18:05
Pair 2G. Brisebois17:25Z. Buium21:05
Pair 3J. Oleksiak15:01V. Mancini13:51

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele15:10K. Connor15:22G. Vilardi13:56
Line 2A. Lowry13:37V. Björck14:18A. Iafallo13:25
Line 3M. Barron12:53C. Koepke12:10I. Rosen11:35
Line 4C. Perfetti12:27D. Mercer11:45B. Yager11:10
Pair 1D. Samberg23:34N. Pionk20:24
Pair 2D. DeMelo18:22M. Ferraro19:13
Pair 3T. Bauer13:41H. Fleury10:03

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

6 of 13 overs hit (46%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
WPG K. Connor3.5-115+1052Under
WPG C. Perfetti2.5+105-1252Under
WPG G. Vilardi2.5+150-1782Under
VAN J. DeBrusk2.5+122-1401Under
WPG M. Scheifele2.5+134-1553Over
WPG N. Pionk2.5+120-1353Over
VAN B. Boeser1.5-148+1163Over
WPG B. Yager1.5+125-1502Over
WPG D. Mercer1.5-160+1401Under
VAN F. Hronek1.5-102-1201Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki1.5-105-1102Over
VAN L. Karlsson1.5+115-1391Under
VAN M. Rossi1.5+125-1857Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreVAN 2.9, WPG 3.7VAN 2, WPG 6
Total goals6.68
Shots on goalVAN 23.8, WPG 29.9VAN 26, WPG 29
Win chanceWPG 62%WPG won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
WPG K. Connor3.821.41245%0
WPG C. Perfetti2.620.85129%0
WPG M. Scheifele2.531.41239%1
VAN J. DeBrusk2.410.64028%0
WPG G. Vilardi2.121.01134%0
WPG N. Pionk2.030.63112%1
WPG D. Mercer2.010.59224%1
VAN B. Boeser1.930.68125%1
VAN E. Pettersson1.700.84024%0
VAN F. Hronek1.610.6309%0
VAN J. Lekkerimäki1.620.52118%0
VAN L. Karlsson1.510.52018%0
VAN D. O'Connor1.510.37016%0
WPG A. Iafallo1.310.39115%1
VAN L. Ohgren1.330.38115%1
WPG M. Barron1.300.32113%0
WPG D. Samberg1.210.3406%0
VAN M. Rossi1.270.49116%0
VAN B. Gallagher1.230.29012%0
WPG C. Koepke1.140.25111%1
WPG A. Lowry1.100.42016%0
VAN E. Pettersson1.100.2306%0
WPG V. Björck1.000.24112%0
WPG M. Ferraro1.010.2615%1
VAN Z. Buium1.020.3507%0
VAN J. Oleksiak0.900.2405%0
VAN M. Sasson0.900.27012%0
VAN G. Brisebois0.910.1504%0
VAN P. Cotter0.800.30014%0
WPG H. Fleury0.840.1814%0
VAN J. Quillan0.800.1716%0
WPG D. DeMelo0.820.2724%0
WPG T. Bauer0.600.1402%0
VAN V. Mancini0.510.1402%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.