Game Recap: VGK 4, CGY 5 (SO), April 15, 2025

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Game Recap

VGK4

Final/SOTue, Apr 15, 2025Every game that night

CGY5

CGY beat VGK 5-4 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.64 expected goals to 4.02. VGK outshot CGY 42 to 28. B. Saad led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). V. Olofsson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. D. Wolf stopped 38 of 42.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
VGK	3	0	1	0	4
CGY	1	0	3	1	5

1st 5:25VGKP. Dorofeyev0.02 xG
1st 10:11CGYM. FrostPP0.05 xG
1st 14:52VGKN. Roy0.23 xG
1st 19:36VGKT. Hertl0.18 xG
3rd 0:32CGYN. KadriPP0.06 xG
3rd 1:04CGYM. Backlund0.04 xG
3rd 11:01CGYA. Klapka0.11 xG
3rd 11:12VGKB. Saad0.08 xG

Team Stats

VGKCGY

42Shots on goal28

4.02Expected goals2.64

74Shot attempts66

355v5 shots on goal25

0/2Power play2/2

13Hits22

19Blocked shots19

4Penalty minutes2

22Giveaways25

6Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 4.02 xGCGY 2.64 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK42 on goal, 4 scored

CGY28 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Saad	LW	1	2	3	4	0	0	+1	0	14:55	0:00
T. Hertl	C	1	1	2	3	0	1	+1	0	18:16	2:21
N. Roy	C	1	0	1	3	0	2	+1	0	19:18	2:44
P. Dorofeyev	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	18:49	2:23
I. Barbashev	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	17:00	1:40
K. Kolesar	RW	0	1	1	2	2	1	+1	0	15:34	0:00
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	17:16	1:45
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	16:47	1:37
W. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	2	16:28	1:16
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	15:21	0:00
A. Holtz	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	13:41	2:13
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	2	13:01	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	1	1	1	2	0	+2	0	16:59	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	25:58	2:55
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	0	0	21:19	0:00
B. Hutton	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	19:13	1:05
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	18:21	0:01
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+3	0	16:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Samsonov	28	24	4	.857	64:42	OT loss
A. Schmid	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kadri	C	1	1	2	3	0	0	-1	0	20:48	0:50
M. Coronato	RW	0	2	2	2	1	0	-1	0	19:17	0:50
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	21:53	0:50
M. Backlund	C	1	0	1	2	0	2	0	0	19:09	0:00
B. Coleman	LW	0	1	1	1	2	3	0	0	18:18	0:00
A. Klapka	RW	1	0	1	4	6	1	-1	2	17:56	0:00
M. Frost	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	14:53	0:50
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:33	0:00
M. Pospisil	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	12:08	0:00
K. Rooney	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	10:01	0:00
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	9:11	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	8:34	0:00
M. Weegar	D	0	1	1	3	1	3	-1	0	26:52	0:50
K. Bahl	D	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	23:24	0:00
B. Pachal	D	0	1	1	2	3	2	-1	0	14:08	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	23:30	0:00
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	-1	0	22:24	0:00
J. Bean	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	42	38	4	.905	65:00	Win
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamRasmus Andersson VGK First game back in Calgary, his team until Jan 20261 SOG
Old teamVictor Olofsson VGK First game back in Calgary, his team until Apr 20265 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.2, CGY 2.8	VGK 4, CGY 5
Total goals	6.0	9
Shots on goal	VGK 28.4, CGY 28.1	VGK 42, CGY 28
Win chance	VGK 57%	CGY won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.4	3	0.82	2	30%	1
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.9	4	0.59	1	29%	1
CGY M. Coronato	2.4	2	0.55	2	23%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.4	1	0.51	1	22%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.2	2	0.44	1	17%	1
CGY M. Weegar	2.2	3	0.55	1	11%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	2.1	4	0.60	0	21%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.1	3	0.62	2	24%	1
CGY J. Huberdeau	2.0	1	0.76	1	23%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.9	2	0.68	0	9%	0
CGY R. Andersson	1.8	1	0.38	0	9%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.8	4	0.44	3	21%	1
VGK V. Olofsson	1.7	5	0.44	0	21%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.7	2	0.50	0	17%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.7	4	0.35	1	17%	1
CGY M. Frost	1.6	2	0.44	1	15%	1
CGY J. Farabee	1.6	0	0.33	0	14%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.6	1	0.62	1	22%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.5	1	0.44	0	20%	0
VGK N. Roy	1.5	3	0.45	1	17%	1
VGK B. Howden	1.4	1	0.41	0	18%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.4	3	0.30	0	9%	0
VGK T. Pearson	1.3	3	0.28	0	11%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.2	2	0.25	0	12%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.2	0	0.16	0	4%	0
VGK N. Hague	1.2	1	0.17	1	4%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.1	4	0.26	0	4%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	1.0	0	0.22	0	6%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.0	1	0.21	1	4%	0
VGK K. Korczak	1.0	1	0.24	0	2%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.9	0	0.15	0	8%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.9	2	0.27	1	10%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.8	1	0.18	0	4%	0
CGY J. Bean	0.8	1	0.13	0	4%	0
CGY K. Rooney	0.8	0	0.14	0	7%	0
CGY B. Pachal	0.7	2	0.12	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.