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Game Recap
VGK6
LAK4
VGK beat LAK 6-4, and the chances backed it up: 3.72 expected goals to 2.04. T. Laczynski led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). B. McNabb had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. A. Hill stopped 15 of 19.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| LAK | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
- 1st 10:59VGKP. Dorofeyev0.19 xG
- 1st 14:31LAKQ. ByfieldPP0.07 xG
- 2nd 14:44LAKA. Kempe0.17 xG
- 3rd 8:07VGKC. Sissons0.06 xG
- 3rd 11:16VGKB. Saad0.16 xG
- 3rd 12:21VGKR. Smith0.04 xG
- 3rd 13:26LAKQ. Byfield0.13 xG
- 3rd 15:59VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.16 xG
- 3rd 18:54LAKB. Clarke0.05 xG
- 3rd 19:32VGKI. BarbashevEN0.29 xG
Team Stats
VGKLAK
25Shots on goal19
3.72Expected goals2.04
63Shot attempts57
235v5 shots on goal14
1/2Power play1/1
26Hits24
24Blocked shots14
7Penalty minutes19
8Giveaways13
3Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 3.72 xGLAK 2.04 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Laczynski | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:43 | 1:07 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:29 | 2:15 |
| R. Smith | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:30 | 0:34 |
| C. Sissons | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:23 | 0:00 |
| B. Bowman | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:13 | 2:39 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:58 | 2:30 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:24 | 0:10 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:10 | 1:42 |
| B. Saad | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:35 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:12 | 0:00 |
| K. Uchacz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:38 | 0:00 |
| C. Reinhardt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:00 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 21:18 | 0:00 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 23:42 | 2:28 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 2 | -1 | 5 | 21:30 | 0:00 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 21:13 | 0:00 |
| D. Coghlan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:15 | 0:21 |
| B. Hutton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:42 | 0:19 |
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kempe | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:20 | 0:40 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:08 | 0:40 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:05 | 0:40 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:35 | 0:00 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:28 | 0:00 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:23 | 0:00 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:33 | 0:00 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:00 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 12:57 | 0:00 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:57 | 0:00 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 17 | 10:34 | 0:40 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:58 | 0:00 |
| B. Clarke | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 19:20 | 0:40 |
| D. Doughty | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:10 | 0:00 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:12 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:21 | 0:00 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 18:06 | 0:00 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:11 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Forsberg | 24 | 19 | 5 | .792 | 56:50 | Loss |
| D. Kuemper | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
VGK
Line 1I. Barbashev16:34K. Kolesar15:39T. Hertl14:44
Line 2R. Smith14:13P. Dorofeyev14:19T. Laczynski14:36
Line 3C. Reinhardt11:25K. Uchacz12:38B. Bowman10:34
Line 4C. Sissons11:18B. Saad11:25A. Holtz12:28
Pair 1R. Andersson19:30J. Lauzon20:05
Pair 2B. McNabb18:53K. Korczak19:07
Pair 3B. Hutton14:23D. Coghlan14:54
LAK
Line 1A. Panarin17:15A. Kempe18:30A. Laferriere16:58
Line 2A. Kopitar14:45Q. Byfield15:51T. Moore13:25
Line 3A. Turcotte12:57A. Kuzmenko12:19W. Foegele12:47
Line 4J. Armia10:09S. Helenius7:58C. Perry7:59
Pair 1M. Anderson19:25C. Ceci17:19
Pair 2D. Doughty19:23B. Dumoulin17:11
Pair 3J. Edmundson16:07B. Clarke16:27
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 3.0, LAK 2.8 | VGK 6, LAK 4 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 26.9, LAK 25.3 | VGK 25, LAK 19 |
| Win chance | VGK 53% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK A. Panarin | 3.0 | 3 | 1.27 | 2 | 36% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.6 | 4 | 0.58 | 2 | 28% | 2 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.6 | 4 | 0.89 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.3 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.1 | 2 | 0.63 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.0 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 2.0 | 1 | 0.53 | 2 | 10% | 1 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 1.8 | 4 | 0.61 | 2 | 21% | 2 |
| LAK T. Moore | 1.8 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK R. Andersson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK C. Perry | 1.8 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| VGK B. Saad | 1.5 | 2 | 0.32 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| VGK D. Coghlan | 1.5 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.4 | 2 | 0.56 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 1.4 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.3 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK J. Armia | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.3 | 1 | 0.36 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| LAK A. Kuzmenko | 1.2 | 0 | 0.52 | 2 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.1 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK B. Bowman | 1.1 | 1 | 0.39 | 2 | 13% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.1 | 0 | 0.68 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK J. Lauzon | 1.1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK C. Sissons | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 2 | 9% | 1 |
| VGK B. Hutton | 1.0 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK C. Reinhardt | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 0.8 | 4 | 0.18 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK B. Dumoulin | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK T. Laczynski | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 3 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK C. Ceci | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.7 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.