ANA beat WPG 3-2, with the chances close: 3.22 expected goals to 2.49. ANA outshot WPG 31 to 23. F. Vatrano led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. LaCombe had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. L. Dostal stopped 21 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| ANA | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
- 2nd 4:45ANAF. Vatrano0.11 xG
- 2nd 10:24WPGG. VilardiPP0.16 xG
- 3rd 4:13WPGM. Scheifele0.13 xG
- 3rd 15:14ANAF. Vatrano0.04 xG
- 3rd 19:34ANAT. Terry0.14 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WPG 2.49 xGANA 3.22 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:15 | 4:28 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:42 | 4:33 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:57 | 4:28 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:51 | 3:51 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 17:04 | 1:42 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 16:17 | 1:43 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:12 | 0:00 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:14 | 0:00 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:20 | 1:34 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:44 | 1:57 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9:06 | 0:00 |
| R. Kupari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7:12 | 0:00 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:13 | 4:09 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 22:53 | 2:11 |
| H. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 20:51 | 0:00 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:41 | 0:05 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15:16 | 0:04 |
| V. Heinola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:39 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Comrie | 31 | 28 | 3 | .903 | 59:33 | Loss |
| C. Hellebuyck | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Vatrano | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:46 | 3:29 |
| T. Terry | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:27 | 3:41 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:46 | 3:28 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:08 | 2:33 |
| M. McTavish | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:22 | 2:29 |
| R. Fabbri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:06 | 2:38 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:58 | 2:21 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:36 | 0:00 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:19 | 3:21 |
| B. McGinn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:12 | 0:00 |
| J. Harkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:22 | 0:00 |
| R. Johnston | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:00 | 0:00 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:09 | 0:00 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:08 | 3:49 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | +1 | 0 | 22:12 | 0:00 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:52 | 2:11 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 19:35 | 0:00 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:53 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WPG 3.3, ANA 2.8 | WPG 2, ANA 3 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | WPG 30.7, ANA 29.5 | WPG 23, ANA 31 |
| Win chance | WPG 58% | ANA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.4 | 3 | 1.05 | 2 | 38% | 0 |
| ANA F. Vatrano | 3.2 | 5 | 0.61 | 3 | 29% | 2 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.5 | 2 | 0.78 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| WPG N. Ehlers | 2.4 | 2 | 0.72 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.3 | 1 | 0.83 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 2.2 | 2 | 0.80 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.2 | 3 | 1.00 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 2.1 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 2.0 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.9 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.9 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.9 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 1.8 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.8 | 0 | 0.53 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.7 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA J. Trouba | 1.6 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA R. Fabbri | 1.5 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WPG H. Fleury | 1.4 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.4 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WPG M. Appleton | 1.4 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.3 | 4 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.2 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA B. McGinn | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.1 | 4 | 0.31 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG V. Heinola | 1.1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA B. Dumoulin | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 0.9 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 0.9 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WPG R. Kupari | 0.9 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA R. Johnston | 0.5 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.