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Game Recap
WPG1
BOS6
BOS beat WPG 6-1, with the chances close: 3.27 expected goals to 2.66. D. Pastrnak led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Toews had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. J. Swayman stopped 23 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| BOS | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
- 1st 14:52BOSD. Pastrnak0.17 xG
- 2nd 6:23BOSL. Reichel0.12 xG
- 2nd 18:16BOSV. Arvidsson0.18 xG
- 3rd 3:15BOSP. Zacha0.07 xG
- 3rd 5:38WPGJ. ToewsPP0.12 xG
- 3rd 15:52BOSF. Minten0.28 xG
- 3rd 18:18BOSJ. Aspirot0.08 xG
Team Stats
WPGBOS
24Shots on goal27
2.66Expected goals3.27
57Shot attempts50
205v5 shots on goal25
1/4Power play0/1
10Hits24
8Blocked shots10
2Penalty minutes8
18Giveaways11
4Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WPG 2.66 xGBOS 3.27 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Toews | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:59 | 3:42 |
| B. Lambert | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:16 | 3:49 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 21:56 | 2:53 |
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 20:41 | 2:54 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 19:13 | 2:32 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:48 | 2:55 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 14:59 | 3:43 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:38 | 0:00 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:34 | 0:00 |
| I. Rosen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:51 | 3:41 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:30 | 0:00 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:41 | 0:00 |
| E. Salomonsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:21 | 3:24 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 25:19 | 3:12 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 22:28 | 0:00 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 21:02 | 0:15 |
| H. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 11:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:49 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 27 | 21 | 6 | .778 | 60:00 | Loss |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 4 | 14:55 | 0:50 |
| L. Reichel | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:45 | 1:10 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 14:15 | 1:10 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:11 | 1:10 |
| P. Zacha | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 12:54 | 0:50 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:55 | 0:50 |
| F. Minten | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:40 | 1:10 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:39 | 0:50 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:21 | 0:00 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:43 | 0:00 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:00 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:28 | 0:00 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 19:06 | 0:01 |
| J. Aspirot | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 0 | 17:17 | 0:00 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:20 | 0:00 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 0 | 20:34 | 0:50 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:23 | 1:09 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:33 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 24 | 23 | 1 | .958 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
WPG
Line 1M. Scheifele19:03K. Connor17:17G. Vilardi16:41
Line 2A. Lowry14:11C. Perfetti14:53B. Lambert8:27
Line 3J. Toews11:17G. Nyquist11:16I. Rosen8:10
Pair 1D. DeMelo20:43J. Morrissey22:07
Pair 2D. Samberg19:01E. Salomonsson17:42
BOS
Line 1M. Geekie14:05E. Lindholm13:58L. Reichel13:35
Line 2V. Arvidsson13:05C. Mittelstadt13:01P. Zacha12:04
Line 3S. Kuraly13:15T. Jeannot12:52M. Kastelic11:33
Line 4D. Pastrnak13:56F. Minten11:50M. Khusnutdinov10:45
Pair 1H. Lindholm18:12M. Lohrei18:57
Pair 2N. Zadorov16:45A. Peeke16:29
Pair 3C. McAvoy15:37J. Aspirot17:01
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WPG 3.0, BOS 3.0 | WPG 1, BOS 6 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | WPG 27.1, BOS 27.2 | WPG 24, BOS 27 |
| Win chance | BOS 51% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.8 | 3 | 1.39 | 2 | 42% | 1 |
| WPG K. Connor | 3.5 | 1 | 1.16 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 2.5 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BOS V. Arvidsson | 2.4 | 2 | 0.63 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.4 | 1 | 1.13 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.1 | 1 | 0.74 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.0 | 1 | 0.79 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 1.9 | 3 | 0.76 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.8 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.8 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS F. Minten | 1.6 | 4 | 0.49 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.6 | 2 | 0.66 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.6 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.5 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.5 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WPG E. Salomonsson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.3 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.3 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WPG J. Toews | 1.2 | 4 | 0.36 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.2 | 2 | 0.54 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| WPG G. Nyquist | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 1.1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG I. Rosen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS S. Kuraly | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WPG C. Koepke | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.0 | 2 | 0.19 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS T. Jeannot | 0.9 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS J. Aspirot | 0.8 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| BOS L. Reichel | 0.8 | 1 | 0.24 | 2 | 9% | 1 |
| WPG H. Fleury | 0.8 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG B. Lambert | 0.7 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG J. Bryson | 0.4 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.