Game Recap: WPG 1, BUF 5, December 1, 2025

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Game Recap

WPG1

FinalMon, Dec 1, 2025Every game that night

BUF5

BUF beat WPG 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.09 expected goals to 1.96. J. Norris led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Samuelsson had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. U. Luukkonen stopped 23 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	0	1	0	1
BUF	3	1	1	5

1st 2:46BUFJ. ZuckerPP0.64 xG
1st 3:01BUFB. Byram0.08 xG
1st 14:54BUFJ. Norris0.08 xG
2nd 11:26WPGK. Connor0.17 xG
2nd 12:49BUFA. Tuch0.11 xG
3rd 0:41BUFJ. Norris0.19 xG

Team Stats

WPGBUF

24Shots on goal31

1.96Expected goals3.09

46Shot attempts58

195v5 shots on goal28

0/2Power play1/3

35Hits12

17Blocked shots8

26Penalty minutes14

13Giveaways7

1Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 1.96 xGBUF 3.09 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG24 on goal, 1 scored

BUF31 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Connor	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	-1	0	19:12	2:59
M. Scheifele	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	17:54	3:08
G. Vilardi	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	18:41	3:04
J. Toews	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:24	0:55
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	0	15:18	1:51
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	15:01	1:26
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	14:34	0:00
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	10	14:03	0:54
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	12:23	0:46
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	12:22	0:00
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	12:09	0:00
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	11:08	0:45
J. Morrissey	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	23:49	3:01
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	2	22:00	0:00
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	1	3	3	-1	0	21:02	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	17:28	0:00
C. Miller	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	17:00	1:01
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	14	15:17	0:10

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Comrie	14	11	3	.786	20:00	Loss
T. Milic	17	15	2	.882	40:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Norris	C	2	1	3	3	0	0	+1	0	15:25	2:46
Z. Benson	LW	0	2	2	0	0	0	+1	0	15:05	0:16
J. Doan	RW	0	2	2	1	0	0	+1	0	14:43	2:48
J. Quinn	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	16:56	2:35
A. Tuch	RW	1	0	1	3	0	1	+2	0	16:01	2:09
T. Thompson	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	15:44	2:54
J. Zucker	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	2	13:58	2:43
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	16:01	2:18
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	14:35	0:00
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:21	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	10	13:50	0:00
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	12:03	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	2	22:18	2:50
B. Byram	D	1	0	1	2	0	3	+2	0	19:58	2:29
C. Timmins	D	0	1	1	3	2	0	+2	0	19:15	0:00
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	4	1	1	+1	0	21:36	0:00
O. Power	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	20:21	2:27
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	24	23	1	.958	60:00	Win
A. Lyon	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1G. Vilardi15:37K. Connor14:55M. Scheifele14:46

Line 2J. Toews14:29C. Perfetti13:35V. Namestnikov13:09

Line 3N. Niederreiter11:37A. Iafallo12:18A. Lowry11:36

Line 4G. Nyquist9:18T. Pearson10:54M. Barron9:39

Pair 1J. Morrissey19:11D. DeMelo18:54

Pair 2L. Schenn16:19D. Samberg17:04

Pair 3C. Miller15:59L. Stanley14:25

BUF

Line 1Z. Benson14:49J. Norris12:39T. Thompson12:50

Line 2P. Krebs14:35B. Malenstyn11:52J. Greenway12:24

Line 3R. McLeod11:41J. Quinn14:21J. Zucker11:15

Line 4N. Ostlund12:03J. Doan11:55A. Tuch11:49

Pair 1M. Samuelsson19:35R. Dahlin19:28

Pair 2C. Timmins17:09B. Byram15:35

Pair 3J. Bryson13:50O. Power15:55

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 3.2, BUF 2.9	WPG 1, BUF 5
Total goals	6.2	6
Shots on goal	WPG 27.5, BUF 28.4	WPG 24, BUF 31
Win chance	WPG 55%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.2	2	1.12	1	37%	1
BUF T. Thompson	3.1	2	0.83	1	36%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.8	2	0.81	1	16%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.1	0	1.04	1	35%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.1	1	0.49	2	19%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.1	3	0.68	1	26%	1
BUF J. Zucker	2.1	2	0.60	1	22%	1
WPG G. Vilardi	2.0	2	0.79	0	31%	0
BUF J. Quinn	2.0	2	0.60	1	22%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	1.9	1	0.82	1	15%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.8	1	0.59	0	21%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.7	0	0.50	2	15%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.7	3	0.55	3	27%	2
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.7	1	0.47	0	21%	0
BUF O. Power	1.5	1	0.40	0	7%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.5	2	0.48	0	18%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.4	1	0.55	0	19%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.3	1	0.31	0	5%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.3	1	0.32	0	14%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.3	2	0.45	1	11%	1
WPG M. Barron	1.3	2	0.26	0	12%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.3	4	0.30	0	6%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.3	0	0.37	0	16%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.2	2	0.43	0	15%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.2	1	0.26	0	6%	0
WPG T. Pearson	1.1	2	0.28	0	12%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	1.1	0	0.17	0	8%	0
WPG G. Nyquist	1.1	3	0.41	0	13%	0
BUF J. Greenway	1.0	0	0.24	0	10%	0
BUF C. Timmins	1.0	3	0.27	1	4%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.0	1	0.28	0	13%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.0	1	0.33	0	5%	0
BUF P. Krebs	0.9	3	0.26	0	8%	0
WPG L. Schenn	0.9	1	0.15	0	3%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.9	1	0.25	0	4%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.4	1	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.