CAR beat WPG 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.49 expected goals to 2.17. M. Jankowski led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Jarvis had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. F. Andersen stopped 20 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| CAR | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
- 1st 18:05CARM. Jankowski0.04 xG
- 2nd 5:21CARM. Jankowski0.38 xG
- 3rd 2:34CARL. StankovenPP0.13 xG
- 3rd 17:14WPGA. Iafallo0.02 xG
- 3rd 17:58CARS. JarvisEN0.81 xG
- 3rd 19:08WPGA. Lowry0.08 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WPG 2.17 xGCAR 3.49 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lowry | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:05 | 0:05 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:43 | 0:43 |
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22:06 | 3:59 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:48 | 4:02 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 19:44 | 4:04 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:19 | 3:52 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 13:14 | 0:15 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:42 | 0:47 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:37 | 0:00 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 10:02 | 0:24 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:38 | 0:00 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:24 | 0:44 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25:35 | 0:59 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:51 | 4:00 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:31 | 0:05 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:00 | 0:00 |
| C. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:18 | 0:16 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 9:06 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 26 | 23 | 3 | .885 | 58:14 | Loss |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Jankowski | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:06 | 0:47 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:44 | 7:02 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:31 | 7:24 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:11 | 0:04 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:53 | 7:07 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:57 | 0:00 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:45 | 2:41 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:13 | 0:00 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:46 | 2:47 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:20 | 3:59 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:47 | 2:25 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12:41 | 4:56 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:33 | 7:29 |
| S. Morrow | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:51 | 0:13 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:43 | 2:36 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:01 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:31 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 22 | 20 | 2 | .909 | 60:00 | Win |
| P. Kochetkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WPG 2.7, CAR 2.7 | WPG 2, CAR 4 |
| Total goals | 5.5 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | WPG 24.7, CAR 30.4 | WPG 22, CAR 27 |
| Win chance | CAR 51% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 2.9 | 4 | 0.95 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.7 | 0 | 0.89 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| WPG N. Ehlers | 2.5 | 2 | 0.77 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.4 | 6 | 0.71 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.4 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.4 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 1.9 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 1.9 | 1 | 0.86 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 1.8 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 1.8 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.8 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.8 | 4 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.7 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.7 | 0 | 0.47 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.7 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.7 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.5 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.5 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.5 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.4 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG M. Appleton | 1.4 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.4 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.3 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.2 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.1 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 1.1 | 2 | 0.25 | 2 | 12% | 2 |
| WPG B. Tanev | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| WPG C. Miller | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 0.8 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.