Game Recap: WPG 1, CAR 5, November 28, 2025

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Game Recap

WPG1

FinalFri, Nov 28, 2025Every game that night

CAR5

CAR beat WPG 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.49 expected goals to 1.74. CAR outshot WPG 35 to 13. S. Jarvis scored three for CAR. S. Jarvis had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. B. Bussi stopped 12 of 13.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	0	1	0	1
CAR	1	0	4	5

1st 16:06CARS. Jarvis0.14 xG
2nd 10:41WPGM. Scheifele0.20 xG
3rd 11:52CARJ. Martinook0.09 xG
3rd 12:39CARS. Jarvis0.18 xG
3rd 18:57CARS. JarvisEN0.39 xG
3rd 19:37CARA. Nikishin0.01 xG

Team Stats

WPGCAR

13Shots on goal35

1.74Expected goals3.49

40Shot attempts68

105v5 shots on goal29

0/2Power play0/4

32Hits13

17Blocked shots14

10Penalty minutes8

15Giveaways12

2Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 1.74 xGCAR 3.49 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG13 on goal, 1 scored

CAR32 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	-1	0	21:00	2:34
G. Vilardi	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	2	18:05	2:27
K. Connor	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	21:31	2:26
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	1	2	2	-2	0	15:38	1:34
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	14:46	0:00
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	13:15	2:27
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	13:10	0:00
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:40	1:26
J. Toews	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	12:38	1:33
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:24	0:00
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	11:26	0:00
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	10:10	1:07
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	23:58	3:05
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	0	6	2	-1	2	20:07	0:02
E. Salomonsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	-3	0	19:17	0:00
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	18:18	0:00
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	3	3	1	-1	4	18:00	0:00
C. Miller	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	2	16:59	1:19

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Milic	34	30	4	.882	58:38	Loss
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Jarvis	C	3	0	3	8	1	0	+2	0	18:59	4:11
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	2	2	2	2	0	+2	2	17:47	4:11
S. Aho	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	19:27	4:33
J. Martinook	LW	1	0	1	4	0	1	+1	2	14:02	0:09
M. Jankowski	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	13:56	0:09
E. Robinson	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	13:38	0:00
J. Robidas	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	11:57	0:00
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:15	4:05
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	14:52	3:18
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	14:44	3:40
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	14:14	3:42
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	2	4	1	+1	2	10:26	0:09
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	2	2	1	0	2	+2	0	21:28	4:28
K. Miller	D	0	1	1	5	0	2	+1	0	24:28	3:50
A. Nikishin	D	1	0	1	5	1	2	+1	0	16:38	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	22:18	3:32
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	17:31	0:00
J. Nystrom	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	13:20	0:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
B. Bussi	13	12	1	.923	60:00	Win
F. Andersen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele17:17K. Connor15:22G. Vilardi15:07

Line 2A. Lowry10:25A. Iafallo11:49N. Niederreiter13:13

Line 3V. Namestnikov10:30C. Perfetti10:16T. Pearson10:10

Line 4G. Nyquist6:54M. Barron8:20J. Toews10:18

Pair 1C. Miller14:43L. Stanley15:34

Pair 2J. Morrissey19:13E. Salomonsson15:41

Pair 3D. DeMelo15:26D. Samberg12:52

CAR

Line 1S. Aho12:35A. Svechnikov13:05S. Jarvis12:05

Line 2E. Robinson13:13J. Robidas11:57T. Hall11:34

Line 3N. Ehlers12:10L. Stankoven10:31J. Blake11:02

Line 4M. Jankowski11:11J. Martinook11:15W. Carrier9:26

Pair 1S. Walker15:50K. Miller17:20

Pair 2S. Gostisbehere16:29J. Chatfield15:27

Pair 3A. Nikishin15:09J. Nystrom12:51

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNikolaj Ehlers CAR Faces WPG, his team until May 20250 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 2.7, CAR 3.0	WPG 1, CAR 5
Total goals	5.7	6
Shots on goal	WPG 23.9, CAR 31.6	WPG 13, CAR 35
Win chance	CAR 55%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.0	1	1.03	0	34%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.6	2	0.70	2	27%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.6	8	0.79	3	30%	3
CAR N. Ehlers	2.5	0	0.73	0	25%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.5	0	0.86	1	31%	0
CAR S. Walker	2.3	0	0.33	0	10%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.1	0	0.49	0	20%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.0	3	0.45	0	18%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.0	2	0.96	1	32%	1
WPG G. Vilardi	1.9	0	0.71	1	28%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.9	1	0.65	2	11%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.7	3	0.55	0	19%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.7	0	0.47	0	18%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.6	5	0.43	1	9%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	1.5	0	0.63	0	12%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.4	1	0.38	0	17%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.4	5	0.29	1	6%	1
WPG J. Toews	1.3	1	0.42	0	16%	0
CAR J. Nystrom	1.3	2	0.19	0	3%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.3	0	0.23	0	7%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.2	1	0.29	1	13%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.2	1	0.25	0	11%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.2	0	0.28	0	12%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.2	0	0.33	0	14%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.2	0	0.38	0	14%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.1	4	0.33	1	12%	1
CAR W. Carrier	1.1	2	0.22	0	11%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.1	0	0.21	0	4%	0
WPG T. Pearson	1.0	0	0.25	0	10%	0
WPG G. Nyquist	1.0	0	0.36	0	12%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	0.9	1	0.25	1	13%	0
WPG C. Miller	0.9	0	0.18	0	4%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.7	3	0.26	0	4%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.7	0	0.19	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 13 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.