Game Recap: WPG 0, CAR 7, November 1, 2026

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Game Recap

WPG0

FinalSun, Nov 1, 2026Every game that night

CAR7

CAR beat WPG 7-0, and the chances backed it up: 4.85 expected goals to 2.76. L. Stankoven led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). S. Walker had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. P. Kochetkov stopped 26 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	0	0	0	0
CAR	1	4	2	7

1st 5:16CARS. WalkerSH0.06 xG
2nd 1:55CARJ. Välimäki0.06 xG
2nd 2:19CARS. AhoPP0.10 xG
2nd 7:41CARS. Walker0.03 xG
2nd 9:09CARL. Stankoven0.18 xG
3rd 6:53CARM. JankowskiPP0.08 xG
3rd 8:38CARJ. Kotkaniemi0.23 xG

Team Stats

WPGCAR

26Shots on goal32

2.76Expected goals4.85

58Shot attempts71

195v5 shots on goal22

0/3Power play2/5

30Hits13

14Blocked shots13

10Penalty minutes6

12Giveaways17

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 2.76 xGCAR 4.85 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG26 on goal, 0 scored

CAR32 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	4	0	0	-2	0	20:08	3:28
K. Connor	LW	2	0	3	-2	0	19:16	3:24
G. Vilardi	C	2	1	0	-2	0	16:57	3:25
D. Mercer	C	0	2	0	0	0	15:40	2:21
C. Perfetti	C	3	3	0	-2	2	15:34	3:20
V. Björck	C	0	2	0	0	0	15:06	2:34
M. Barron	C	2	2	1	-2	0	14:47	0:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	3	2	0	0	0	14:26	2:35
A. Lowry	C	0	5	1	-2	0	14:21	0:00
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	3	-2	4	13:59	0:00
I. Rosen	RW	0	0	0	-1	0	10:36	2:36
N. Pionk	D	4	2	0	-2	0	22:55	3:23
D. Samberg	D	1	0	1	-1	2	21:39	0:11
D. DeMelo	D	0	3	2	-1	0	19:59	0:03
E. Salomonsson	D	3	1	0	-1	2	19:19	2:40
H. Fleury	D	1	1	0	-2	0	16:43	0:00
M. Ferraro	D	1	2	3	-2	0	13:55	0:00
T. Bauer	D	0	4	0	-1	0	8:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	17	12	5	.706	29:09	Loss
C. Stevenson	15	13	2	.867	30:51

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Stankoven	C	1	2	3	3	0	0	+2	0	13:26	1:47
S. Aho	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	+1	0	21:16	4:05
S. Jarvis	RW	0	2	2	3	1	2	+2	0	16:16	1:37
N. Ehlers	LW	0	2	2	4	0	0	+2	0	13:22	3:39
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	1	1	3	4	1	0	2	17:34	4:05
M. Jankowski	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	15:46	2:13
J. Blake	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+3	0	15:01	4:13
E. Robinson	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	14:35	0:00
J. Kotkaniemi	C	1	0	1	1	0	2	+2	0	13:31	1:35
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	14:03	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:58	0:00
N. Deslauriers	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	2	11:44	0:00
S. Walker	D	2	0	2	5	0	0	+2	0	21:19	0:09
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	2	2	1	1	2	+2	0	17:23	4:06
J. Välimäki	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	+2	0	15:39	1:33
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	2	22:01	0:13
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	+1	0	20:25	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	17:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Kochetkov	26	26	0	1.000	59:58	Win
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1K. Connor14:44G. Vilardi13:32M. Scheifele16:40

Line 2C. Perfetti12:14D. Mercer11:06A. Lowry12:56

Line 3A. Iafallo12:45V. Björck11:41N. Niederreiter11:51

Line 4M. Barron10:39I. Rosen7:58

Pair 1D. Samberg18:25N. Pionk16:16

Pair 2D. DeMelo17:06H. Fleury16:11

Pair 3M. Ferraro11:50E. Salomonsson16:16

CAR

Line 1S. Aho14:28A. Svechnikov13:29W. Carrier12:58

Line 2N. Deslauriers11:44E. Robinson13:58J. Kotkaniemi11:56

Line 3J. Martinook11:17S. Jarvis12:04M. Jankowski10:19

Line 4L. Stankoven11:30J. Blake10:46N. Ehlers9:41

Pair 1S. Walker19:00K. Miller20:12

Pair 2J. Slavin16:33J. Chatfield14:15

Pair 3S. Gostisbehere13:15J. Välimäki13:10

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

11 of 18 overs hit (61%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.5	-105	-110	3	Over
CAR J. Blake	2.5	+110	-125	1	Under
WPG K. Connor	2.5	-118	+100	2	Under
CAR L. Stankoven	2.5	+105	-120	3	Over
CAR N. Ehlers	2.5	+115	-140	4	Over
CAR S. Aho	2.5	-105	-110	1	Under
CAR S. Jarvis	2.5	+125	-130	3	Over
WPG C. Perfetti	1.5	-188	+150	3	Over
WPG E. Salomonsson	1.5	+165	-225	3	Over
WPG G. Vilardi	1.5	+100	-125	2	Over
CAR J. Chatfield	1.5	+120	-135	0	Under
CAR J. Slavin	1.5	-110	-115	0	Under
CAR M. Jankowski	1.5	+125	-140	3	Over
WPG M. Scheifele	1.5	-146	+115	4	Over
WPG N. Pionk	1.5	+110	-135	4	Over
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.5	-130	+108	1	Under
CAR S. Walker	1.5	-115	-105	5	Over
CAR W. Carrier	1.5	+105	-125	0	Under

6 of 33 overs hit (18%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
WPG A. Iafallo	0.5	+750	-1600	0	Under
WPG A. Lowry	0.5	+900	-2000	0	Under
CAR A. Svechnikov	0.5	+190	-225	0	Under
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	+310	-390	0	Under
WPG D. DeMelo	0.5	+2200	-3500	0	Under
WPG D. Samberg	0.5	+1800	-4000	0	Under
CAR E. Robinson	0.5	+550	-750	0	Under
WPG E. Salomonsson	0.5	+950	-3500	0	Under
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	+320	-490	0	Under
WPG H. Fleury	0.5	+1900	-5000	0	Under
WPG I. Rosen	0.5	+700	-1400	0	Under
CAR J. Blake	0.5	+200	-270	0	Under
CAR J. Chatfield	0.5	+1400	-2000	0	Under
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	0.5	+475	-900	1	Over
CAR J. Martinook	0.5	+475	-750	0	Under
CAR J. Slavin	0.5	+1200	-2000	0	Under
CAR J. Välimäki	0.5	+1000	-2000	1	Over
WPG K. Connor	0.5	+195	-225	0	Under
CAR K. Miller	0.5	+1000	-1600	0	Under
CAR L. Stankoven	0.5	+230	-275	1	Over
WPG M. Barron	0.5	+900	-1600	0	Under
WPG M. Ferraro	0.5	+2100	-3500	0	Under
CAR M. Jankowski	0.5	+360	-475	1	Over
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	+250	-370	0	Under
CAR N. Deslauriers	0.5	+750	-1400	0	Under
CAR N. Ehlers	0.5	+215	-240	0	Under
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+850	-1600	0	Under
CAR S. Aho	0.5	+165	-210	1	Over
CAR S. Gostisbehere	0.5	+500	-900	0	Under
CAR S. Jarvis	0.5	+210	-270	0	Under
CAR S. Walker	0.5	+900	-1600	2	Over
WPG T. Bauer	0.5	+1500	–	0	Under
CAR W. Carrier	0.5	+475	-750	0	Under

7 of 20 overs hit (35%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
CAR A. Svechnikov	0.5	+145	-155	1	Over
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	+230	-275	0	Under
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	+230	-275	0	Under
CAR J. Blake	0.5	+120	-145	1	Over
CAR J. Chatfield	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	0.5	+320	-475	0	Under
CAR J. Martinook	0.5	+320	-400	0	Under
CAR J. Slavin	0.5	+330	-350	0	Under
WPG K. Connor	0.5	+160	-185	0	Under
CAR K. Miller	0.5	+235	-330	0	Under
CAR L. Stankoven	0.5	+205	-250	2	Over
CAR M. Jankowski	0.5	+310	-400	0	Under
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	+110	-135	0	Under
CAR N. Ehlers	0.5	+110	-135	2	Over
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+180	-225	0	Under
CAR S. Aho	0.5	+100	-120	1	Over
CAR S. Gostisbehere	0.5	+105	-130	2	Over
CAR S. Jarvis	0.5	+165	-205	2	Over
CAR S. Walker	0.5	+275	-390	0	Under
CAR W. Carrier	0.5	+255	-350	0	Under

10 of 20 overs hit (50%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
CAR A. Svechnikov	0.5	-160	+140	1	Over
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	+115	-135	0	Under
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	+130	-135	0	Under
CAR J. Blake	0.5	-170	+140	1	Over
CAR J. Chatfield	0.5	+250	-350	0	Under
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	0.5	+175	-240	1	Over
CAR J. Martinook	0.5	+175	-200	0	Under
CAR J. Slavin	0.5	+250	-250	0	Under
WPG K. Connor	0.5	-145	+130	0	Under
CAR K. Miller	0.5	+180	-220	0	Under
CAR L. Stankoven	0.5	-110	-105	3	Over
CAR M. Jankowski	0.5	+155	-160	1	Over
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	-150	+125	0	Under
CAR N. Ehlers	0.5	-175	+150	2	Over
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+140	-150	0	Under
CAR S. Aho	0.5	-215	+180	2	Over
CAR S. Gostisbehere	0.5	-132	+105	2	Over
CAR S. Jarvis	0.5	-125	+110	2	Over
CAR S. Walker	0.5	+200	-275	2	Over
CAR W. Carrier	0.5	+145	-180	0	Under

4 of 12 overs hit (33%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
CAR A. Svechnikov	0.5	+210	-280	1	Over
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	+310	-400	0	Under
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	+280	-375	0	Under
CAR J. Blake	0.5	+240	-275	0	Under
WPG K. Connor	0.5	+200	-275	0	Under
CAR L. Stankoven	0.5	+475	-1400	1	Over
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	+235	-275	0	Under
CAR N. Ehlers	0.5	+200	-260	1	Over
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+300	-600	0	Under
CAR S. Aho	0.5	+210	-240	1	Over
CAR S. Gostisbehere	0.5	+200	-225	0	Under
CAR S. Jarvis	0.5	+340	-750	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
WPG S. Skinner	29.5	-115	-120	12	Under
CAR P. Kochetkov	19.5	-106	-110	26	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
WPG D. Samberg	1.5	-155	+110	1	Under
CAR J. Slavin	1.5	+115	-165	4	Over
WPG M. Ferraro	1.5	+115	-160	3	Over
WPG N. Pionk	1.5	-135	-105	0	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNikolaj Ehlers CAR Faces WPG, his team until May 20252 A, 4 SOG
BirthdayStuart Skinner WPG Turns 28 that day12 saves on 17

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 2.5, CAR 3.8	WPG 0, CAR 7
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	WPG 21.8, CAR 32.7	WPG 26, CAR 32
Win chance	CAR 69%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	2.6	2	0.86	0	32%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.5	3	0.84	1	29%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.4	3	0.67	3	26%	1
CAR S. Jarvis	2.4	3	0.80	2	28%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.4	1	1.01	2	32%	1
CAR J. Blake	2.3	1	0.84	1	25%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.2	4	0.89	2	27%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	2.1	3	0.60	0	22%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	1.9	4	0.97	0	31%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.9	5	0.36	2	9%	2
CAR J. Slavin	1.7	0	0.36	0	7%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.6	1	0.63	2	12%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	1.6	2	0.67	0	26%	0
WPG D. Mercer	1.6	0	0.40	0	18%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.6	1	0.45	0	16%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.6	4	0.41	0	9%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.5	0	0.38	0	14%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.5	0	0.33	0	8%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.4	1	0.47	0	10%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	1.3	3	0.49	1	21%	1
CAR E. Robinson	1.3	2	0.34	1	13%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.2	2	0.27	0	12%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.2	0	0.29	0	13%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.1	1	0.34	1	12%	1
WPG I. Rosen	1.0	0	0.22	0	11%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.0	1	0.22	0	4%	0
WPG V. Björck	1.0	0	0.22	0	12%	0
WPG A. Lowry	0.9	0	0.30	0	13%	0
CAR J. Välimäki	0.9	2	0.23	1	4%	1
WPG E. Salomonsson	0.9	3	0.14	0	4%	0
WPG M. Ferraro	0.8	1	0.18	0	5%	0
CAR N. Deslauriers	0.7	1	0.13	0	6%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.7	0	0.19	0	4%	0
WPG H. Fleury	0.7	1	0.13	0	3%	0
WPG T. Bauer	0.4	0	0.04	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.