Game Recap: WPG 5, CGY 3, October 26, 2024

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Game Recap

WPG5

FinalSat, Oct 26, 2024Every game that night

CGY3

WPG beat CGY 5-3, with the chances close: 2.96 expected goals to 2.34. K. Connor led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Weegar had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. E. Comrie stopped 26 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	2	0	3	5
CGY	1	1	1	3

1st 0:28CGYM. Backlund0.02 xG
1st 1:51WPGN. EhlersPP0.11 xG
1st 17:37WPGK. ConnorSH0.23 xG
2nd 17:28CGYR. Andersson0.01 xG
3rd 1:01WPGD. Samberg0.02 xG
3rd 4:19CGYN. Kadri0.09 xG
3rd 16:16WPGC. PerfettiPP0.09 xG
3rd 18:46WPGM. AppletonEN0.82 xG

Team Stats

WPGCGY

35Shots on goal29

2.96Expected goals2.34

64Shot attempts74

245v5 shots on goal24

2/4Power play0/4

18Hits31

17Blocked shots18

12Penalty minutes22

15Giveaways16

6Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 2.96 xGCGY 2.34 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG35 on goal, 5 scored

CGY29 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Connor	LW	1	1	2	5	0	0	0	0	20:13	3:25
A. Lowry	C	0	2	2	2	1	1	+2	0	16:37	0:08
M. Appleton	C	1	1	2	3	2	1	0	0	14:15	0:12
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	2	2	3	5	0	+1	2	11:21	0:29
N. Ehlers	LW	1	0	1	5	0	1	0	2	16:01	3:27
C. Perfetti	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	13:11	0:16
V. Namestnikov	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	12:10	0:16
M. Scheifele	C	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	2	20:18	3:26
G. Vilardi	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	19:06	3:30
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	2	10:55	0:00
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:41	0:16
R. Kupari	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	8:29	0:00
N. Pionk	D	0	2	2	3	1	1	+2	2	19:58	0:53
J. Morrissey	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	-2	0	23:57	3:01
D. Samberg	D	1	0	1	2	1	0	+3	2	19:38	0:11
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	0	3	5	-2	0	21:58	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	17:59	0:00
C. Miller	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Comrie	29	26	3	.897	60:00	Win
C. Hellebuyck	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	2	2	0	1	0	0	0	17:17	5:38
M. Backlund	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	21:07	1:54
N. Kadri	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	-1	12	18:36	5:43
C. Zary	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	17:25	1:40
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	19:23	5:57
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	1	3	3	0	0	18:20	1:59
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	18:02	5:32
A. Mantha	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	12:28	1:48
M. Pospisil	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	2	10:53	0:00
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	2	9:15	0:00
J. Kirkland	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:01	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	8:38	0:00
R. Andersson	D	1	0	1	3	0	2	0	4	23:42	1:53
K. Bahl	D	0	1	1	1	2	3	+2	0	22:55	0:17
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	6	6	1	-1	2	27:13	5:44
D. Miromanov	D	0	0	0	3	2	2	0	0	18:20	0:00
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	10:36	0:00
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	10:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	34	30	4	.882	58:27	Loss
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownJosh Morrissey WPG Plays in his hometown1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 3.3, CGY 3.1	WPG 5, CGY 3
Total goals	6.3	8
Shots on goal	WPG 29.4, CGY 32.6	WPG 35, CGY 29
Win chance	WPG 53%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.6	3	0.84	1	28%	1
WPG K. Connor	3.2	5	0.95	2	36%	1
CGY B. Coleman	2.8	1	0.60	0	25%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.6	1	0.53	1	19%	1
WPG N. Ehlers	2.6	5	0.77	1	25%	1
CGY M. Weegar	2.4	6	0.49	0	12%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	2.3	0	0.63	0	26%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.2	1	0.97	0	33%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	2.1	2	0.73	0	30%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.0	2	0.76	1	12%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.9	3	0.46	2	21%	0
CGY A. Kuzmenko	1.9	0	0.73	2	29%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.9	1	0.56	1	18%	1
CGY M. Pospisil	1.8	0	0.40	0	13%	0
CGY R. Andersson	1.8	3	0.50	1	10%	1
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.8	1	0.71	0	19%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.8	4	0.55	1	20%	0
CGY D. Miromanov	1.6	3	0.25	0	7%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.5	3	0.43	2	6%	0
CGY A. Mantha	1.5	1	0.49	0	19%	0
WPG M. Appleton	1.4	3	0.39	2	13%	1
WPG A. Lowry	1.4	2	0.42	2	16%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.2	1	0.23	0	11%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.2	1	0.22	0	5%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.1	1	0.43	1	14%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.1	2	0.23	1	3%	1
WPG A. Iafallo	1.0	1	0.30	0	12%	0
CGY B. Pachal	1.0	0	0.14	0	3%	0
CGY A. Klapka	0.9	1	0.15	0	8%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.9	1	0.13	0	8%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.9	0	0.32	0	4%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.9	1	0.16	0	3%	0
WPG R. Kupari	0.9	1	0.17	0	6%	0
CGY K. Bahl	0.9	1	0.17	1	3%	0
CGY J. Kirkland	0.8	1	0.31	0	11%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.5	2	0.11	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.