Game Recap: WPG 2, CGY 1, October 20, 2025

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Game Recap

WPG2

FinalMon, Oct 20, 2025Every game that night

CGY1

WPG beat CGY 2-1, with the chances close: 3.12 expected goals to 2.75. A. Iafallo had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. C. Hellebuyck stopped 32 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	0	0	2	2
CGY	0	1	0	1

2nd 13:22CGYR. Andersson0.01 xG
3rd 2:41WPGJ. ToewsPP0.19 xG
3rd 15:06WPGM. Scheifele0.19 xG

Team Stats

WPGCGY

27Shots on goal33

3.12Expected goals2.75

46Shot attempts72

75v5 shots on goal25

1/5Power play0/5

15Hits22

19Blocked shots11

10Penalty minutes6

19Giveaways18

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 3.12 xGCGY 2.75 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG27 on goal, 2 scored

CGY33 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Connor	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	22:07	6:41
M. Scheifele	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	20:40	6:47
J. Toews	C	1	0	1	1	0	2	-1	2	18:01	3:52
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	1	1	0	3	0	-1	2	15:46	2:51
G. Vilardi	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	2	17:49	6:43
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	8	2	0	0	0	16:22	5:43
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:28	2:48
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	13:45	2:42
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:46	0:00
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	10:43	0:00
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	10:33	0:00
B. Lambert	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	7:43	0:00
N. Pionk	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	0	25:24	3:07
J. Morrissey	D	0	1	1	3	0	4	0	0	22:22	6:28
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	20:05	0:06
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	14:26	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:22	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	2	14:12	0:02

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	33	32	1	.970	60:00	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Klapka	RW	0	1	1	2	3	0	+1	0	9:06	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	1	1	2	3	0	+1	0	8:24	0:06
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	20:34	2:35
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	20:21	5:50
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	2	19:39	5:50
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:54	0:57
M. Coronato	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	17:15	5:37
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	15:57	2:41
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	13:34	5:04
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	13:19	3:01
J. Kirkland	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	11:05	0:00
S. Honzek	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	9:19	0:00
R. Andersson	D	1	0	1	6	0	1	+1	0	25:18	3:21
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	3	4	2	-1	0	25:15	5:33
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	2	20:57	0:09
J. Bean	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	18:19	0:00
Z. Parekh	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:57	1:52
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	11:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	27	25	2	.926	58:37	Loss
D. Cooley	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1J. Toews13:25G. Nyquist12:32N. Niederreiter12:32

Line 2M. Scheifele11:36K. Connor12:27G. Vilardi11:01

Line 3V. Namestnikov8:55A. Iafallo8:58B. Lambert7:37

Line 4M. Barron7:43C. Koepke7:11T. Pearson8:39

Pair 1L. Stanley14:10N. Pionk17:08

Pair 2D. DeMelo13:24J. Morrissey13:19

Pair 3L. Schenn11:32H. Fleury12:36

CGY

Line 1M. Backlund12:19B. Coleman12:46M. Coronato10:41

Line 2N. Kadri12:46J. Huberdeau11:51J. Farabee10:28

Line 3C. Zary10:18S. Honzek8:38M. Frost7:56

Line 4A. Klapka8:44R. Lomberg8:18J. Kirkland7:48

Pair 1M. Weegar16:06J. Bean15:44

Pair 2K. Bahl15:00R. Andersson13:45

Pair 3J. Hanley10:32Z. Parekh11:05

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownJosh Morrissey WPG Plays in his hometown1 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 3.1, CGY 2.6	WPG 2, CGY 1
Total goals	5.7	3
Shots on goal	WPG 27.0, CGY 27.3	WPG 27, CGY 33
Win chance	WPG 59%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.1	3	0.78	0	29%	0
WPG K. Connor	3.0	3	1.02	1	35%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.1	3	0.55	0	10%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.1	2	0.53	0	22%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.1	3	0.42	0	20%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.1	4	0.93	1	33%	1
CGY J. Farabee	1.9	3	0.42	0	18%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	1.9	2	0.73	0	28%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.9	2	0.70	0	22%	0
CGY M. Backlund	1.8	0	0.35	0	15%	0
CGY R. Andersson	1.8	6	0.37	1	8%	1
WPG J. Morrissey	1.8	3	0.63	1	11%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.8	0	0.42	1	20%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.7	1	0.40	1	7%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.6	2	0.44	0	16%	0
CGY Z. Parekh	1.6	0	0.28	0	7%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.6	0	0.36	0	16%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.5	8	0.39	0	16%	0
CGY S. Honzek	1.5	0	0.15	0	10%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.5	1	0.50	1	18%	1
CGY A. Klapka	1.3	2	0.29	1	14%	0
WPG T. Pearson	1.3	0	0.30	0	12%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.3	0	0.27	0	12%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.2	2	0.45	0	15%	0
WPG G. Nyquist	1.0	0	0.40	0	13%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.0	0	0.28	0	4%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.0	0	0.20	0	10%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.0	1	0.21	0	3%	0
CGY J. Bean	0.9	1	0.14	0	4%	0
WPG L. Schenn	0.9	1	0.11	0	2%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.9	2	0.15	1	8%	0
WPG H. Fleury	0.9	1	0.13	0	2%	0
WPG B. Lambert	0.8	1	0.33	0	11%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.8	0	0.19	0	3%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.7	0	0.15	0	3%	0
CGY J. Kirkland	0.4	3	0.19	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.