Game Recap: WPG 4, CHI 2, December 7, 2024

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Game Recap

WPG4

FinalSat, Dec 7, 2024Every game that night

CHI2

WPG beat CHI 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 5.00 expected goals to 0.96. WPG outshot CHI 29 to 14. M. Appleton led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Barron had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. C. Hellebuyck stopped 12 of 14.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	1	1	2	4
CHI	2	0	0	2

1st 9:01CHIA. VlasicPP0.05 xG
1st 13:31WPGG. Vilardi0.05 xG
1st 19:47CHIA. Martinez0.09 xG
2nd 13:10WPGN. Niederreiter0.07 xG
3rd 10:18WPGM. Scheifele0.58 xG
3rd 18:19WPGM. AppletonEN0.81 xG

Team Stats

WPGCHI

29Shots on goal14

5.00Expected goals0.96

62Shot attempts35

285v5 shots on goal12

0/2Power play1/1

15Hits13

10Blocked shots12

2Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways11

3Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 5.00 xGCHI 0.96 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG29 on goal, 4 scored

CHI14 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Connor	LW	0	2	2	2	0	0	+1	0	20:59	2:18
M. Appleton	C	1	1	2	3	1	1	+2	0	16:31	0:00
M. Scheifele	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	21:01	2:19
G. Vilardi	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	19:16	2:16
N. Niederreiter	RW	1	0	1	4	0	1	+2	0	15:51	1:44
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	16:31	2:23
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	15:30	1:42
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	+1	0	15:28	0:00
B. Lambert	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:06	1:42
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:52	1:34
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	9:29	0:00
R. Kupari	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	9:06	0:00
H. Fleury	D	0	1	1	0	2	3	+2	0	19:05	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	13:06	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	24:04	2:04
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+2	0	23:30	1:56
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	22:44	0:02
V. Heinola	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	13:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	14	12	2	.857	60:00	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Bedard	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	0	20:26	0:21
T. Teravainen	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	16:44	0:21
J. Dickinson	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	-2	0	16:21	0:00
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	13:20	0:00
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	16:24	0:00
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:14	0:00
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	15:23	0:21
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	14:37	0:00
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	14:21	0:21
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	13:27	0:00
P. Maroon	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	12:11	0:00
C. Smith	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	10:59	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	1	0	1	3	2	2	-3	0	25:08	0:21
A. Martinez	D	1	0	1	1	0	2	+1	0	13:53	0:00
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	22:46	0:00
T. Brodie	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	0	19:40	0:00
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	19:14	0:00
N. Allan	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	16:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Mrazek	4	4	0	1.000	10:46
A. Soderblom	24	21	3	.875	47:26	Loss

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 3.3, CHI 2.4	WPG 4, CHI 2
Total goals	5.7	6
Shots on goal	WPG 30.1, CHI 28.0	WPG 29, CHI 14
Win chance	WPG 63%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.5	2	1.07	2	40%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.7	0	0.74	1	22%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	2.3	1	0.80	1	34%	1
CHI R. Donato	2.3	0	0.45	0	19%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.3	4	1.05	1	37%	1
WPG J. Morrissey	2.2	1	0.88	0	12%	0
CHI T. Hall	2.2	1	0.55	0	21%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	2.1	4	0.50	1	24%	1
WPG C. Perfetti	2.0	2	0.63	0	22%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.8	1	0.51	0	21%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.8	0	0.56	0	7%	0
CHI C. Smith	1.7	1	0.32	0	15%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.7	1	0.51	1	19%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.7	0	0.34	1	16%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.6	1	0.42	0	17%	0
WPG M. Appleton	1.5	3	0.40	2	14%	1
WPG A. Lowry	1.5	2	0.49	0	19%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.3	0	0.35	1	17%	0
WPG H. Fleury	1.3	0	0.19	1	3%	0
CHI L. Reichel	1.3	0	0.28	0	11%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.3	3	0.28	1	4%	1
CHI P. Kurashev	1.2	0	0.39	0	14%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.2	0	0.47	0	16%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.2	0	0.33	0	14%	0
CHI A. Martinez	1.2	1	0.24	1	5%	1
CHI C. Murphy	1.1	1	0.22	0	5%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.1	4	0.20	0	10%	0
WPG V. Heinola	1.0	1	0.21	0	2%	0
CHI P. Maroon	0.9	2	0.28	0	9%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.9	3	0.30	0	4%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	0.9	2	0.16	0	2%	0
WPG R. Kupari	0.9	0	0.15	0	6%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.9	1	0.17	1	3%	0
CHI T. Brodie	0.6	0	0.23	0	2%	0
CHI N. Allan	0.6	0	0.20	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 13 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.