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Game Recap
WPG5
CHI4
WPG beat CHI 5-4 in a shootout, with the chances close: 4.15 expected goals to 3.46. WPG outshot CHI 42 to 32. J. Morrissey led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Barron had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. C. Hellebuyck stopped 28 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| CHI | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
- 1st 10:40CHIN. FolignoSH0.01 xG
- 1st 13:21CHIC. BedardPP0.11 xG
- 2nd 11:15WPGN. NiederreiterPP0.06 xG
- 2nd 16:03WPGK. Connor0.08 xG
- 3rd 2:08WPGJ. Morrissey0.04 xG
- 3rd 10:53CHIR. Donato0.02 xG
- 3rd 14:05CHIF. Nazar0.14 xG
- 3rd 16:13WPGJ. Morrissey0.09 xG
Team Stats
WPGCHI
42Shots on goal32
4.15Expected goals3.46
76Shot attempts49
305v5 shots on goal24
1/2Power play1/2
28Hits16
7Blocked shots14
4Penalty minutes4
17Giveaways14
7Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WPG 4.15 xGCHI 3.46 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Connor | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:29 | 2:26 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:41 | 1:33 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:14 | 1:18 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:01 | 1:13 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:58 | 2:26 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:41 | 2:23 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:21 | 0:00 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:41 | 1:46 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:00 | 0:01 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:51 | 0:18 |
| J. Anderson-Dolan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:10 | 0:00 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:01 | 2:03 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 28:32 | 2:16 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 23:59 | 0:15 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:21 | 1:38 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:41 | 0:19 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:00 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:00 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 32 | 28 | 4 | .875 | 64:57 | Win |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Bedard | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:28 | 2:47 |
| F. Nazar | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:50 | 2:47 |
| R. Donato | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:29 | 0:19 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:01 | 0:00 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:48 | 2:09 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:11 | 0:00 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:55 | 2:46 |
| O. Moore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:51 | 0:07 |
| P. Kurashev | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:53 | 0:18 |
| L. Slaggert | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:30 | 0:00 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:07 | 0:00 |
| P. Maroon | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:21 | 0:56 |
| S. Rinzel | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:03 | 2:55 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 22:30 | 0:11 |
| A. Levshunov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:56 | 0:10 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:25 | 0:00 |
| A. Martinez | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:58 | 0:00 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:55 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Knight | 42 | 38 | 4 | .905 | 64:50 | OT loss |
| A. Soderblom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WPG 3.5, CHI 2.3 | WPG 5, CHI 4 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | WPG 28.9, CHI 23.3 | WPG 42, CHI 32 |
| Win chance | WPG 69% | WPG won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.4 | 4 | 1.15 | 2 | 39% | 1 |
| WPG N. Ehlers | 2.6 | 0 | 0.84 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 2.4 | 2 | 0.63 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.3 | 3 | 0.64 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.2 | 5 | 1.05 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.2 | 3 | 0.82 | 2 | 15% | 2 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 2.1 | 1 | 0.69 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| CHI S. Rinzel | 2.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.9 | 4 | 0.51 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.9 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.8 | 1 | 0.51 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| CHI F. Nazar | 1.7 | 5 | 0.38 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.6 | 2 | 0.47 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 1.6 | 0 | 0.47 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| WPG M. Appleton | 1.6 | 5 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.5 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.4 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.4 | 3 | 0.31 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| CHI A. Levshunov | 1.4 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.3 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| CHI O. Moore | 1.3 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.3 | 5 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CHI N. Foligno | 1.2 | 3 | 0.34 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 1.2 | 3 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 1.2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG L. Schenn | 1.1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG J. Anderson-Dolan | 1.1 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.1 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG B. Tanev | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.0 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI J. Veleno | 1.0 | 4 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI L. Slaggert | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CHI P. Maroon | 0.9 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CHI P. Kurashev | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 0.8 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CHI A. Martinez | 0.7 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.