Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
WPG4
Final/OTTue, Mar 31, 2026Every game that night
CHI3

WPG beat CHI 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.53 expected goals to 1.94. M. Scheifele led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). C. Hellebuyck stopped 18 of 21.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
WPG03014
CHI11103
  1. 1st 4:42CHIA. Frondell0.25 xG
  2. 2nd 1:06WPGJ. Morrissey0.22 xG
  3. 2nd 11:19WPGC. PerfettiPP0.22 xG
  4. 2nd 11:57WPGI. Rosen0.03 xG
  5. 2nd 13:26CHIT. Bertuzzi0.05 xG
  6. 3rd 9:46CHIT. Bertuzzi0.14 xG
  7. OT 0:33WPGK. Connor0.18 xG

Team Stats

WPGCHI
24Shots on goal21
2.53Expected goals1.94
48Shot attempts43
225v5 shots on goal19
1/1Power play0/2
27Hits20
12Blocked shots9
4Penalty minutes2
12Giveaways12
5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 2.53 xGCHI 1.94 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdOTCHI goal, 4:42WPG goal, 1:06WPG goal, 11:19WPG goal, 11:57CHI goal, 13:26CHI goal, 9:46WPG goal, 0:33

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG23 on goal, 4 scored
CHI21 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. ScheifeleC033101-1020:321:47
K. ConnorLW112400-1021:071:47
C. PerfettiC1014010218:491:47
A. IafalloLW011030-2016:180:08
I. RosenRW101110+107:250:00
D. ZhilkinC011120+106:540:00
G. VilardiC0000020019:271:39
A. LowryC0001620017:010:00
J. ToewsC0002100015:450:00
C. KoepkeLW0003400214:120:00
B. LambertC0001000013:010:00
P. FordC000120+108:100:00
J. MorrisseyD112100+2023:421:27
N. PionkD0110310022:550:20
D. DeMeloD0000220023:440:00
D. SambergD000302+1023:060:00
E. SalomonssonD000120-2014:440:00
J. BrysonD000011-2010:470:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Hellebuyck21183.85760:33Win
E. Comrie000–0:00

CHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. BertuzziLW202340+2020:032:15
I. MikheyevRW022210+2017:290:00
A. FrondellC101311+1016:492:22
C. BedardC000000-2019:572:52
F. NazarC0004100017:462:21
R. GreeneC000110-1016:340:35
N. LardisLW000100-1014:460:36
T. TeravainenC0001100013:592:13
A. BurakovskyLW0000000013:500:42
R. DonatoC0000000013:060:44
L. SlaggertLW0000400011:110:00
S. LaffertyC000000009:530:00
L. CrevierD022113+2020:370:05
W. KaiserD000231-2023:070:00
S. RinzelD000121-1022:440:00
A. VlasicD000101+2020:500:00
E. Del MastroD0000110214:130:00
K. KorchinskiD0001010012:580:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Knight24204.83360:33OT loss
A. Soderblom000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1K. Connor18:03M. Scheifele18:06A. Iafallo15:27
Line 2G. Vilardi17:48C. Perfetti16:49A. Lowry15:51
Line 3J. Toews15:45B. Lambert13:01C. Koepke13:15
Line 4I. Rosen7:25P. Ford8:10D. Zhilkin5:57
Pair 1D. DeMelo21:38J. Morrissey21:42
Pair 2N. Pionk21:44D. Samberg20:58
Pair 3J. Bryson10:47E. Salomonsson13:54

CHI

Line 1T. Bertuzzi17:48I. Mikheyev17:29A. Frondell13:54
Line 2C. Bedard16:32R. Greene14:35N. Lardis14:10
Line 3A. Burakovsky13:08R. Donato12:22F. Nazar15:25
Line 4T. Teravainen9:59L. Slaggert10:48S. Lafferty9:53
Pair 1S. Rinzel22:44W. Kaiser22:26
Pair 2A. Vlasic19:03L. Crevier18:53
Pair 3E. Mastro14:13K. Korchinski12:58

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreWPG 3.2, CHI 2.6WPG 4, CHI 3
Total goals5.87
Shots on goalWPG 28.4, CHI 24.9WPG 24, CHI 21
Win chanceWPG 60%WPG won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
WPG K. Connor3.541.21240%1
CHI C. Bedard2.900.94029%0
WPG C. Perfetti2.540.70123%1
WPG M. Scheifele2.511.20338%0
CHI F. Nazar2.140.65022%0
WPG J. Morrissey2.010.78217%1
WPG G. Vilardi2.000.84032%0
CHI T. Bertuzzi2.030.69227%2
WPG N. Pionk1.900.43110%0
CHI S. Rinzel1.810.3507%0
CHI I. Mikheyev1.620.43220%0
CHI L. Crevier1.510.2427%0
WPG A. Iafallo1.500.39117%0
CHI R. Greene1.510.40014%0
WPG D. Samberg1.430.3105%0
WPG A. Lowry1.410.43017%0
CHI R. Donato1.400.44018%0
WPG C. Koepke1.430.26012%0
CHI N. Lardis1.310.39017%0
WPG J. Toews1.320.37014%0
WPG E. Salomonsson1.210.2005%0
CHI A. Burakovsky1.200.44015%0
CHI A. Vlasic1.110.2804%0
CHI W. Kaiser1.120.2207%0
CHI T. Teravainen1.110.51017%0
WPG D. DeMelo1.000.2705%0
WPG B. Lambert1.010.35012%0
WPG I. Rosen0.910.22110%1
CHI L. Slaggert0.900.1607%0
CHI E. Mastro0.800.1504%0
CHI K. Korchinski0.810.1204%0
WPG P. Ford0.710.1809%0
WPG D. Zhilkin0.710.1317%0
CHI S. Lafferty0.600.1407%0
WPG J. Bryson0.400.1402%0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.