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Game Recap
WPG3
COL2
WPG beat COL 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.13 expected goals to 3.06. J. Morrissey led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). N. MacKinnon had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 4.0. C. Hellebuyck stopped 25 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| COL | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 2nd 6:09COLN. MacKinnon0.30 xG
- 2nd 10:56WPGM. Barron0.05 xG
- 2nd 18:44WPGG. Vilardi0.10 xG
- 3rd 7:05COLC. Makar0.18 xG
- OT 0:17WPGN. Pionk0.04 xG
Team Stats
WPGCOL
25Shots on goal27
2.13Expected goals3.06
44Shot attempts63
185v5 shots on goal25
0/1Power play0/2
15Hits29
20Blocked shots11
6Penalty minutes4
10Giveaways16
4Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WPG 2.13 xGCOL 3.06 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 15:45 | 0:36 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:53 | 0:46 |
| D. Gustafsson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:37 | 0:00 |
| M. Barron | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:38 | 0:00 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:51 | 1:24 |
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:43 | 1:24 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:18 | 1:03 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 16:29 | 0:47 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:19 | 1:14 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 13:55 | 0:36 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:53 | 0:00 |
| R. Kupari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:53 | 0:00 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:15 | 0:56 |
| N. Pionk | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:01 | 0:55 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:53 | 0:10 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 21:30 | 0:09 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 | 0:00 |
| H. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:19 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 60:17 | Win |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Drouin | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:26 | 2:43 |
| N. MacKinnon | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:59 | 3:36 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:36 | 3:35 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:18 | 1:17 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:03 | 2:43 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:54 | 0:00 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:39 | 1:14 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:00 |
| J. Parssinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:11 | 0:28 |
| J. Innala | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 5:58 | 0:00 |
| I. Ivan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 5:57 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:30 | 2:41 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:50 | 1:19 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:29 | 0:24 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:39 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 14:32 | 0:00 |
| K. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 11:50 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Blackwood | 25 | 22 | 3 | .880 | 60:17 | OT loss |
| S. Wedgewood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WPG 2.9, COL 3.0 | WPG 3, COL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | WPG 26.8, COL 30.3 | WPG 25, COL 27 |
| Win chance | COL 52% | WPG won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 4.0 | 7 | 1.38 | 1 | 38% | 1 |
| WPG K. Connor | 3.0 | 3 | 1.01 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 3.0 | 3 | 0.97 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| COL M. Rantanen | 2.9 | 4 | 1.15 | 1 | 38% | 0 |
| WPG N. Ehlers | 2.5 | 1 | 0.77 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.2 | 0 | 0.70 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 2.1 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.1 | 3 | 0.91 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 2.0 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 2.0 | 3 | 0.46 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 1.8 | 2 | 0.70 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 1.8 | 4 | 0.69 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.7 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| COL J. Drouin | 1.7 | 0 | 0.71 | 2 | 18% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.5 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WPG M. Appleton | 1.4 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.4 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.4 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.3 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL C. Mittelstadt | 1.3 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.2 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 1.2 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG H. Fleury | 1.2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.1 | 1 | 0.42 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.1 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| COL K. Middleton | 1.0 | 0 | 0.05 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG R. Kupari | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 0.9 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG D. Gustafsson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.13 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| COL J. Parssinen | 0.7 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| COL I. Ivan | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| COL J. Innala | 0.4 | 0 | 0.07 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.