Game Recap: WPG 2, COL 3, December 19, 2025

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Game Recap

WPG2

FinalFri, Dec 19, 2025Every game that night

COL3

COL beat WPG 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.42 expected goals to 1.30. J. Manson led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). B. Nelson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. S. Wedgewood stopped 20 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	0	1	1	2
COL	2	0	1	3

1st 9:45COLB. Burns0.01 xG
1st 15:05COLM. Necas0.21 xG
2nd 19:22WPGM. BarronSH0.13 xG
3rd 1:58COLP. Kelly0.20 xG
3rd 3:38WPGM. ScheifelePP0.21 xG

Team Stats

WPGCOL

22Shots on goal26

1.30Expected goals3.42

47Shot attempts57

185v5 shots on goal22

1/2Power play0/3

20Hits21

15Blocked shots13

9Penalty minutes9

14Giveaways12

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 1.30 xGCOL 3.42 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG21 on goal, 2 scored

COL26 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	-1	2	23:19	1:43
M. Barron	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	16:04	0:00
A. Iafallo	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	14:10	0:00
G. Nyquist	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	13:08	0:30
K. Connor	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	20:57	1:44
G. Vilardi	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	20:25	1:45
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	14:42	0:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	12:56	0:22
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	12:13	0:17
J. Toews	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	11:01	0:24
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	5	9:18	0:00
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	2	8:37	1:35
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	25:11	0:25
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	23:43	1:43
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	+1	0	22:27	0:07
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	20:23	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	2	5	0	-2	0	15:19	0:00
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	11:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	26	23	3	.885	59:00	Loss
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	24:21	4:49
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	21:16	2:10
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	1	1	3	2	0	+1	0	18:44	0:57
M. Necas	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	16:57	3:18
P. Kelly	C	1	0	1	1	6	0	+2	0	10:49	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	9:24	0:00
G. Landeskog	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	2	21:09	4:47
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	0	19:38	4:53
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	+2	0	12:56	0:00
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:28	2:01
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:00	1:05
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	8:18	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	2	2	0	2	1	+3	5	15:35	0:00
B. Burns	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	+2	0	16:57	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-1	0	26:17	5:20
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	21:42	0:40
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	17:16	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	16:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	22	20	2	.909	60:00	Win
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele20:36K. Connor17:48G. Vilardi17:40

Line 2A. Lowry11:49M. Barron13:15A. Iafallo11:24

Line 3N. Niederreiter12:34V. Namestnikov11:40C. Perfetti7:02

Line 4J. Toews10:37T. Pearson9:18G. Nyquist8:48

Pair 1N. Pionk20:07D. Samberg18:18

Pair 2D. DeMelo18:07J. Morrissey21:00

Pair 3L. Stanley13:15H. Fleury11:07

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon19:26A. Lehkonen17:03M. Necas13:39

Line 2G. Landeskog15:22V. Nichushkin17:15B. Nelson13:10

Line 3J. Drury11:30P. Kelly10:17J. Kiviranta9:24

Line 4V. Olofsson8:55G. Brindley8:27R. Colton8:18

Pair 1D. Toews18:27C. Makar18:21

Pair 2S. Girard17:16S. Malinski16:06

Pair 3B. Burns16:25J. Manson15:04

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 2.6, COL 3.3	WPG 2, COL 3
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	WPG 25.5, COL 32.9	WPG 22, COL 26
Win chance	COL 62%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.4	1	1.47	1	40%	0
WPG K. Connor	3.2	3	0.96	0	34%	0
COL C. Makar	3.1	2	1.15	0	26%	0
COL G. Landeskog	2.4	1	0.81	0	29%	0
COL M. Necas	2.3	4	0.98	1	27%	1
COL V. Nichushkin	2.2	1	0.64	1	27%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.2	3	0.67	1	27%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.2	5	0.75	0	30%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.1	2	0.90	1	32%	1
WPG G. Vilardi	1.9	2	0.65	0	28%	0
COL B. Burns	1.8	1	0.38	1	8%	1
COL R. Colton	1.8	1	0.39	0	17%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.7	2	0.34	0	7%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	1.7	2	0.60	0	10%	0
COL D. Toews	1.7	0	0.50	0	10%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.7	0	0.45	0	17%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.7	1	0.33	0	6%	0
COL G. Brindley	1.5	0	0.42	0	16%	0
COL V. Olofsson	1.5	1	0.37	0	17%	0
COL J. Manson	1.5	0	0.31	2	7%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.4	2	0.25	1	12%	1
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.4	0	0.33	0	17%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.4	2	0.29	1	14%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.2	2	0.22	0	3%	0
COL J. Drury	1.2	0	0.29	0	11%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.2	1	0.23	1	10%	1
WPG J. Toews	1.2	1	0.30	0	12%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.2	0	0.32	0	13%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.2	1	0.29	0	14%	0
WPG G. Nyquist	1.2	1	0.34	1	12%	0
COL S. Girard	1.1	2	0.29	0	5%	0
WPG T. Pearson	1.1	0	0.22	0	10%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.8	2	0.19	0	4%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.8	1	0.25	0	3%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	0.7	1	0.15	1	8%	0
WPG H. Fleury	0.7	0	0.09	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.