Game Recap: WPG 4, COL 2, March 28, 2026

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Game Recap

WPG4

FinalSat, Mar 28, 2026Every game that night

COL2

WPG beat COL 4-2, with the chances close: 2.25 expected goals to 1.71. G. Vilardi led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). P. Kelly had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. C. Hellebuyck stopped 21 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	1	1	2	4
COL	1	1	0	2

1st 3:51WPGG. Vilardi0.06 xG
1st 8:59COLB. NelsonPP0.07 xG
2nd 2:14WPGC. Koepke0.18 xG
2nd 18:05COLP. Kelly0.07 xG
3rd 14:49WPGC. Perfetti0.06 xG
3rd 17:51WPGK. ConnorEN0.82 xG

Team Stats

WPGCOL

21Shots on goal23

2.25Expected goals1.71

46Shot attempts56

185v5 shots on goal22

0/2Power play1/2

32Hits21

18Blocked shots16

8Penalty minutes6

13Giveaways14

7Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 2.25 xGCOL 1.71 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG20 on goal, 4 scored

COL23 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
G. Vilardi	C	1	1	2	4	0	0	+2	0	20:05	2:32
M. Scheifele	C	0	1	1	2	0	3	0	4	23:51	2:27
K. Connor	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	22:23	2:31
C. Perfetti	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	+2	2	19:15	2:27
A. Lowry	C	0	1	1	1	4	0	+2	0	16:55	0:02
J. Toews	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	0	14:01	1:30
C. Koepke	LW	1	0	1	2	6	1	+1	0	12:29	0:04
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	1	6	2	0	0	18:25	1:24
B. Lambert	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	10:11	1:33
P. Ford	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	9:00	0:01
D. Zhilkin	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	5:39	0:00
I. Rosen	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	5:32	0:40
D. Samberg	D	0	1	1	0	2	4	+2	2	24:19	0:01
J. Morrissey	D	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	22:25	1:55
E. Salomonsson	D	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	13:51	0:47
J. Bryson	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	9:26	0:00
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	2	6	2	+1	0	25:04	2:02
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	21:54	0:04

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	23	21	2	.913	60:00	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Nelson	C	1	0	1	3	0	2	-2	0	20:19	1:15
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	16:01	0:00
N. Kadri	C	0	1	1	0	1	2	-1	0	14:28	1:15
P. Kelly	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	2	10:34	0:00
M. Necas	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	23:50	1:15
N. MacKinnon	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-2	0	22:36	1:15
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	15:03	0:00
G. Landeskog	LW	0	0	0	2	1	2	-3	0	14:47	0:34
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	12:09	0:00
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:07	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	0	9:35	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:35	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	-3	0	26:37	1:15
J. Manson	D	0	1	1	1	4	0	0	2	14:31	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	0	21:10	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	20:23	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	19:26	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	15:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	20	17	3	.850	57:49	Loss
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele19:37K. Connor17:46A. Iafallo15:29

Line 2C. Perfetti15:14G. Vilardi14:50A. Lowry13:37

Line 3J. Toews11:23C. Koepke11:10B. Lambert8:38

Line 4P. Ford8:59D. Zhilkin5:39I. Rosen4:52

Pair 1D. DeMelo18:58J. Morrissey18:53

Pair 2D. Samberg20:00N. Pionk19:30

Pair 3E. Salomonsson11:39J. Bryson9:26

COL

Line 1A. Lehkonen15:00N. MacKinnon17:14G. Landeskog12:36

Line 2M. Necas18:14B. Nelson15:13V. Nichushkin14:35

Line 3R. Colton9:35L. O'Connor10:44N. Kadri11:01

Line 4J. Drury8:25P. Kelly8:44J. Kiviranta6:03

Pair 1B. Kulak18:07C. Makar19:28

Pair 2B. Burns12:59J. Manson13:07

Pair 3S. Malinski17:48D. Toews16:47

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayJosh Morrissey WPG Turns 31 that day1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 2.5, COL 3.4	WPG 4, COL 2
Total goals	5.9	6
Shots on goal	WPG 23.8, COL 32.4	WPG 21, COL 23
Win chance	COL 64%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.2	3	1.56	0	41%	0
WPG K. Connor	3.2	3	0.99	1	35%	1
COL C. Makar	2.8	3	1.08	1	26%	0
COL N. Kadri	2.7	0	0.79	1	27%	0
COL M. Necas	2.6	1	1.13	0	31%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.5	3	0.88	1	33%	1
COL G. Landeskog	2.3	2	0.79	0	27%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	2.2	1	0.56	1	20%	1
WPG M. Scheifele	2.2	2	0.97	1	34%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.0	0	0.63	1	26%	0
COL S. Malinski	2.0	1	0.39	0	7%	0
COL B. Burns	1.8	2	0.35	0	9%	0
COL R. Colton	1.8	0	0.37	0	15%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	1.7	4	0.66	2	28%	1
WPG J. Morrissey	1.7	2	0.63	1	12%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	1.6	0	0.52	0	21%	0
COL D. Toews	1.6	0	0.45	0	9%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.5	2	0.33	0	7%	0
COL J. Manson	1.5	1	0.33	1	7%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.3	1	0.30	0	14%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.2	1	0.34	1	15%	0
COL J. Drury	1.2	0	0.31	0	11%	0
COL B. Kulak	1.2	2	0.22	0	5%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.2	0	0.23	1	3%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.2	2	0.20	1	10%	1
COL P. Kelly	1.2	4	0.33	1	13%	1
COL L. O'Connor	1.1	1	0.33	0	12%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.1	1	0.29	1	12%	0
WPG E. Salomonsson	1.1	0	0.14	1	3%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.0	0	0.22	0	10%	0
WPG B. Lambert	0.9	1	0.29	0	10%	0
WPG I. Rosen	0.9	0	0.21	0	10%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.8	0	0.20	0	3%	0
WPG P. Ford	0.7	0	0.15	0	8%	0
WPG J. Bryson	0.4	0	0.11	1	1%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.