Game Recap: WPG 6, DET 2, October 30, 2024

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Game Recap

WPG6

FinalWed, Oct 30, 2024Every game that night

DET2

WPG beat DET 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 2.81 expected goals to 1.43. WPG outshot DET 29 to 21. K. Connor led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Hellebuyck stopped 19 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	3	0	3	6
DET	0	2	0	2

1st 2:48WPGG. Vilardi0.17 xG
1st 4:02WPGN. Pionk0.19 xG
1st 15:44WPGK. Connor0.21 xG
2nd 8:13DETD. LarkinPP0.10 xG
2nd 17:40DETA. DeBrincatPP0.17 xG
3rd 0:10WPGN. Niederreiter0.03 xG
3rd 7:19WPGN. PionkPP0.03 xG
3rd 10:25WPGC. Miller0.06 xG

Team Stats

WPGDET

29Shots on goal21

2.81Expected goals1.43

50Shot attempts51

265v5 shots on goal18

1/2Power play2/3

10Hits31

17Blocked shots6

6Penalty minutes4

12Giveaways17

3Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 2.81 xGDET 1.43 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG28 on goal, 6 scored

DET21 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Connor	LW	1	2	3	4	0	1	+3	0	16:18	2:39
G. Vilardi	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	+3	0	16:17	2:42
M. Scheifele	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+3	2	18:51	2:36
A. Lowry	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	15:09	0:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	14:48	0:53
V. Namestnikov	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	14:14	0:59
A. Iafallo	LW	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	13:03	0:51
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	17:05	2:40
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:43	0:54
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	0	13:56	0:00
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	0	13:06	0:00
R. Kupari	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	11:50	0:00
N. Pionk	D	2	0	2	3	0	0	+2	2	21:01	0:59
L. Stanley	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	14:33	0:00
C. Miller	D	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	12:21	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+2	0	24:43	2:32
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	+3	0	23:02	0:00
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+2	2	20:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	21	19	2	.905	60:00	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Raymond	LW	0	2	2	1	1	0	-2	0	15:36	2:44
A. DeBrincat	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	-3	0	18:39	2:48
D. Larkin	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	-3	2	17:04	2:50
P. Kane	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	18:31	2:42
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	17:01	0:11
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:25	0:13
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:43	0:17
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	15:15	0:16
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:48	0:00
C. Fischer	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	11:56	0:00
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	10:15	0:00
A. Watson	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	9:06	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	2	2	3	0	0	-2	0	22:37	3:01
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-2	0	23:03	0:00
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	2	6	1	-3	0	22:02	0:03
S. Edvinsson	D	0	0	0	3	3	0	-2	0	21:36	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	14:12	0:00
J. Holl	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	29	23	6	.793	60:00	Loss
C. Talbot	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMason Appleton DET Faces WPG, his team until May 20251 SOG
HometownKyle Connor WPG Plays near home (born in Shelby Township)1 G, 2 A, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 3.6, DET 3.1	WPG 6, DET 2
Total goals	6.7	8
Shots on goal	WPG 32.0, DET 29.9	WPG 29, DET 21
Win chance	WPG 57%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.4	4	1.00	3	38%	1
DET D. Larkin	3.2	2	0.91	1	34%	1
WPG N. Ehlers	2.8	2	0.80	0	27%	0
DET A. DeBrincat	2.8	1	0.73	1	27%	1
DET P. Kane	2.5	0	0.74	0	23%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.3	1	0.90	0	16%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	2.3	3	0.76	2	32%	1
WPG M. Scheifele	2.3	2	1.00	1	35%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.1	1	0.77	2	25%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	2.0	4	0.47	1	22%	1
WPG C. Perfetti	2.0	1	0.57	0	19%	0
DET M. Seider	1.8	3	0.48	2	8%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.7	3	0.49	2	7%	2
DET J. Berggren	1.5	2	0.35	0	16%	0
WPG M. Appleton	1.5	1	0.41	0	14%	0
DET J. Compher	1.5	1	0.50	0	19%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.5	0	0.44	1	17%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.3	2	0.23	0	6%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.3	2	0.24	1	6%	1
WPG M. Barron	1.3	0	0.23	0	11%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.2	0	0.36	0	14%	0
DET A. Copp	1.2	1	0.39	0	14%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.2	1	0.26	0	5%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.2	0	0.31	0	14%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.1	0	0.43	1	14%	0
DET J. Petry	1.1	1	0.30	0	5%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.1	1	0.29	1	12%	0
WPG L. Stanley	1.1	2	0.19	1	4%	0
DET C. Fischer	1.1	1	0.23	0	10%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.0	3	0.26	0	8%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.0	0	0.35	0	5%	0
DET J. Veleno	0.9	1	0.23	0	10%	0
WPG R. Kupari	0.9	2	0.16	0	6%	0
DET A. Watson	0.8	1	0.14	0	9%	0
DET J. Holl	0.5	0	0.16	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.