Game Recap: WPG 1, DET 2, December 31, 2025

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Game Recap

WPG1

FinalWed, Dec 31, 2025Every game that night

DET2

DET beat WPG 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 1.28 expected goals to 2.42. D. Samberg had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Gibson stopped 23 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	0	0	1	1
DET	2	0	0	2

1st 8:22DETD. LarkinPP0.05 xG
1st 14:48DETM. Appleton0.11 xG
3rd 7:04WPGL. Stanley0.02 xG

Team Stats

WPGDET

24Shots on goal19

2.42Expected goals1.28

54Shot attempts34

185v5 shots on goal17

0/3Power play1/3

24Hits14

11Blocked shots20

6Penalty minutes6

13Giveaways12

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 2.42 xGDET 1.28 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG23 on goal, 1 scored

DET19 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Toews	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	13:09	1:27
M. Scheifele	C	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	23:36	2:37
K. Connor	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	23:08	2:42
G. Vilardi	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	22:05	2:44
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:11	3:02
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	2	14:06	1:41
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	12:19	0:00
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	1	4	2	+1	0	12:15	0:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	11:41	1:15
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	11:31	0:11
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	10:44	0:00
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	10:21	1:08
L. Stanley	D	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	15:34	0:20
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	23:43	2:51
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	22:06	1:09
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	20:53	0:02
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	4	2	1	0	0	19:44	0:31
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	14:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	19	17	2	.895	57:32	Loss
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Larkin	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	4	20:26	2:25
L. Raymond	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	17:33	2:26
J. Compher	LW	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	16:02	0:00
M. Rasmussen	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	14:37	0:00
M. Appleton	C	1	0	1	2	1	2	+1	0	14:05	0:00
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	0	16:40	0:58
P. Kane	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	16:31	2:28
E. Finnie	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	16:10	1:05
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	15:57	2:28
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:08	0:00
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	9:50	1:02
N. Danielson	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	9:28	1:04
M. Seider	D	0	1	1	1	1	3	0	0	27:48	2:36
S. Edvinsson	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	26:48	0:00
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	20:01	0:04
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:52	0:00
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	12:54	0:00
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:10	0:54

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	24	23	1	.958	60:00	Win
C. Talbot	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1G. Vilardi16:53M. Scheifele17:08K. Connor16:12

Line 2J. Toews11:18C. Perfetti12:11A. Iafallo10:52

Line 3A. Lowry10:42T. Pearson10:22M. Barron9:36

Line 4N. Niederreiter10:26V. Namestnikov9:13G. Nyquist9:14

Pair 1L. Schenn13:02L. Stanley14:18

Pair 2D. DeMelo19:15D. Samberg16:56

Pair 3J. Morrissey17:04N. Pionk15:28

DET

Line 1D. Larkin16:02E. Finnie13:54L. Raymond13:46

Line 2P. Kane14:03A. DeBrincat13:29A. Copp12:27

Line 3M. Appleton11:28M. Rasmussen11:27J. Compher11:24

Line 4J. Riemsdyk8:48N. Danielson8:24M. Kasper8:55

Pair 1S. Edvinsson22:23M. Seider21:12

Pair 2B. Chiarot15:45A. Sandin-Pellikka11:04

Pair 3A. Johansson15:03J. Bernard-Docker10:36

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMason Appleton DET Faces WPG, his team until May 20251 G, 2 SOG
HometownKyle Connor WPG Plays near home (born in Shelby Township)4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 3.0, DET 2.9	WPG 1, DET 2
Total goals	5.8	3
Shots on goal	WPG 26.3, DET 27.9	WPG 24, DET 19
Win chance	WPG 51%	DET won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.4	4	1.17	0	39%	0
DET A. DeBrincat	3.0	3	0.81	0	30%	0
DET D. Larkin	2.7	3	0.88	1	33%	1
DET P. Kane	2.4	0	0.74	0	22%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.3	0	1.14	0	38%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.2	1	0.87	1	25%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	2.1	1	0.86	0	33%	0
DET M. Seider	2.1	1	0.57	1	9%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.0	0	0.79	0	15%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.9	2	0.43	0	18%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.7	0	0.37	0	8%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.6	2	0.34	0	15%	0
DET J. Riemsdyk	1.5	1	0.44	0	17%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.4	3	0.42	0	15%	0
DET A. Copp	1.4	3	0.46	0	14%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.4	1	0.40	0	10%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.3	4	0.27	0	4%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.3	1	0.22	0	7%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.3	0	0.25	0	12%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.3	2	0.35	0	17%	0
WPG G. Nyquist	1.3	2	0.45	0	15%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.2	1	0.30	0	14%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.2	2	0.34	0	16%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.1	1	0.33	1	13%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.1	0	0.32	1	13%	0
DET N. Danielson	1.1	0	0.25	0	9%	0
DET M. Appleton	1.1	2	0.28	1	10%	1
WPG T. Pearson	1.1	0	0.27	0	12%	0
DET J. Compher	1.0	1	0.33	1	13%	0
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	1.0	0	0.31	0	6%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.0	0	0.32	0	12%	0
WPG L. Stanley	1.0	1	0.23	1	5%	1
DET J. Bernard-Docker	1.0	0	0.17	0	4%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.9	1	0.30	0	4%	0
WPG L. Schenn	0.8	0	0.12	0	2%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.7	0	0.14	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.