Game Recap: WPG 3, DET 2, October 4, 2026

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Game Recap

WPG3

FinalSun, Oct 4, 2026Every game that night

DET2

WPG beat DET 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.99 expected goals to 4.52. DET outshot WPG 35 to 27. K. Connor led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Morrissey had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. S. Skinner stopped 33 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	2	1	0	3
DET	0	1	1	2

1st 13:04WPGC. PerfettiPP0.10 xG
1st 14:36WPGK. ConnorPP0.09 xG
2nd 5:41WPGK. ConnorPP0.37 xG
2nd 16:52DETV. ArvidssonPP0.55 xG
3rd 4:56DETE. Finnie0.81 xG

Team Stats

WPGDET

27Shots on goal35

2.99Expected goals4.52

53Shot attempts76

185v5 shots on goal22

3/4Power play1/5

20Hits25

15Blocked shots11

15Penalty minutes13

19Giveaways10

2Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 2.99 xGDET 4.52 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG27 on goal, 3 scored

DET34 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Connor	LW	2	1	3	5	1	0	-1	0	20:05	3:07
C. Perfetti	C	1	2	3	2	0	1	-1	0	17:10	3:06
G. Vilardi	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	2	14:41	3:04
M. Scheifele	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	18:06	3:05
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	17:46	0:00
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:17	0:00
V. Björck	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:21	2:00
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4	13:09	1:59
I. Rosen	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:54	1:57
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	11:44	0:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:15	2:02
B. Lambert	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	10:27	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	2	2	7	1	2	0	0	21:33	3:00
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	3	2	4	-1	0	23:53	2:05
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	4	20:53	0:00
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	20:17	0:00
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	19:50	0:00
T. Bauer	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	5	8:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	35	33	2	.943	60:00	Win
C. Stevenson	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Copp	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	23:44	6:31
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	1	1	4	0	2	+1	0	23:16	6:44
V. Arvidsson	LW	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	2	21:24	6:23
M. Brandsegg-Nygård	RW	0	1	1	6	4	0	+1	0	19:33	2:34
E. Finnie	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	16:56	1:42
L. Raymond	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	23:55	7:21
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	4	3	1	0	0	16:09	2:40
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	12:51	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7	10:49	0:00
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:23	0:00
N. Danielson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:09	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	1	1	3	1	4	0	0	25:41	6:35
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	19:32	2:30
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	17:23	0:00
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	15:37	2:20
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:30	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:37	0:00
A. Englund	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	7:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	27	24	3	.889	57:11	Loss
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele12:58K. Connor12:49C. Perfetti12:19

Line 2A. Lowry11:19B. Lambert10:27M. Barron11:22

Line 3V. Björck10:05G. Vilardi10:51I. Rosen10:11

Line 4N. Niederreiter9:13A. Iafallo8:41V. Namestnikov8:50

Pair 1N. Pionk16:00D. Samberg14:52

Pair 2D. DeMelo16:02J. Morrissey16:34

Pair 3M. Ferraro14:02T. Bauer8:35

DET

Line 1A. Copp12:51L. Raymond13:26A. DeBrincat13:59

Line 2E. Finnie12:52M. Brandsegg-Nygård16:05V. Arvidsson13:07

Line 3J. Compher11:07M. Rasmussen10:48K. Kolesar8:33

Line 4M. Appleton8:25N. Danielson7:41

Pair 1M. Seider15:17A. Johansson9:56

Pair 2B. Chiarot15:16A. Sandin-Pellikka11:24

Pair 3J. Faulk14:41A. Johansson12:27

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 14 overs hit (71%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
DET A. DeBrincat	3.5	+106	-135	4	Over
WPG K. Connor	3.5	+135	-150	5	Over
WPG C. Perfetti	2.5	+130	-170	2	Under
DET L. Raymond	2.5	+115	-140	2	Under
DET M. Seider	2.5	+135	-154	3	Over
DET V. Arvidsson	2.5	+120	-118	3	Over
DET A. Copp	1.5	-110	-110	1	Under
DET E. Finnie	1.5	-135	-110	2	Over
WPG G. Vilardi	1.5	-135	+120	2	Over
DET J. Faulk	1.5	+100	-130	3	Over
WPG J. Morrissey	1.5	-160	+142	7	Over
WPG M. Scheifele	1.5	-170	+150	2	Over
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.5	-110	-135	0	Under
WPG N. Pionk	1.5	+105	-110	3	Over

4 of 33 overs hit (12%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+340	-600	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+135	-160	0	Under
WPG A. Iafallo	0.5	+750	-2500	0	Under
DET A. Johansson	0.5	+1800	-5000	0	Under
WPG A. Lowry	0.5	+650	-1600	0	Under
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	0.5	+1000	-3500	0	Under
DET B. Chiarot	0.5	+1700	-3500	0	Under
WPG B. Lambert	0.5	+700	-2000	0	Under
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	+260	-400	1	Over
WPG D. DeMelo	0.5	+1700	-3500	0	Under
WPG D. Samberg	0.5	+2000	-4000	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+380	-700	1	Over
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	+290	-475	0	Under
WPG I. Rosen	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
DET J. Compher	0.5	+650	-1200	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+650	-1600	0	Under
WPG J. Morrissey	0.5	+600	-800	0	Under
WPG K. Connor	0.5	+170	-200	2	Over
DET K. Kolesar	0.5	+900	-2000	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+220	-310	0	Under
DET M. Appleton	0.5	+800	-1400	0	Under
WPG M. Barron	0.5	+750	-2500	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+550	-1000	0	Under
WPG M. Ferraro	0.5	+1700	-4000	0	Under
DET M. Rasmussen	0.5	+650	-1600	0	Under
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	+220	-275	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+500	-800	0	Under
DET N. Danielson	0.5	+700	-1400	0	Under
WPG N. Niederreiter	0.5	+600	-1400	0	Under
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+800	-1600	0	Under
WPG T. Bauer	0.5	+1800	-10000	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+230	-285	1	Over
WPG V. Namestnikov	0.5	+550	-800	0	Under

7 of 15 overs hit (47%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+165	-220	1	Over
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+145	-185	1	Over
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	+205	-235	2	Over
WPG D. Samberg	0.5	+270	-450	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+280	-350	0	Under
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	+176	-200	1	Over
WPG J. Morrissey	0.5	+112	-125	2	Over
WPG K. Connor	0.5	+120	-140	1	Over
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+135	-140	0	Under
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	-110	-115	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+135	-140	1	Over
WPG N. Niederreiter	0.5	+270	-450	0	Under
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+230	-285	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+215	-295	0	Under
WPG V. Namestnikov	0.5	+240	-375	0	Under

9 of 15 overs hit (60%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+105	-120	1	Over
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	-190	+160	1	Over
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	+105	-125	3	Over
WPG D. Samberg	0.5	+225	-350	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+150	-165	1	Over
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	-115	+110	1	Over
WPG J. Morrissey	0.5	-120	+105	2	Over
WPG K. Connor	0.5	-200	+160	3	Over
DET L. Raymond	0.5	-145	+130	0	Under
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	-200	+165	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	-105	+105	1	Over
WPG N. Niederreiter	0.5	+150	-210	0	Under
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+165	-220	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	-105	-115	1	Over
WPG V. Namestnikov	0.5	+150	-210	0	Under

7 of 13 overs hit (54%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+300	-600	1	Over
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+170	-260	0	Under
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	+310	-650	3	Over
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	+280	-550	1	Over
WPG J. Morrissey	0.5	+200	-300	2	Over
WPG K. Connor	0.5	+185	-280	3	Over
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+185	-280	0	Under
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	+180	-275	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+200	-300	1	Over
WPG N. Niederreiter	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+400	-1100	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+220	-375	1	Over
WPG V. Namestnikov	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMason Appleton DET Faces WPG, his team until May 20250 SOG
HometownKyle Connor WPG Plays near home (born in Shelby Township)2 G, 1 A, 5 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 3.0, DET 3.0	WPG 3, DET 2
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	WPG 25.9, DET 28.2	WPG 27, DET 35
Win chance	DET 51%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET A. DeBrincat	3.2	4	0.92	1	32%	0
WPG K. Connor	3.1	5	1.00	3	35%	2
DET L. Raymond	2.1	2	0.85	0	25%	0
DET M. Seider	2.1	3	0.63	1	10%	0
DET V. Arvidsson	2.1	3	0.56	1	20%	1
WPG M. Scheifele	2.0	2	1.04	0	33%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	2.0	2	0.53	3	19%	1
WPG J. Morrissey	1.8	7	0.66	2	14%	0
DET J. Faulk	1.7	3	0.46	0	11%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	1.7	2	0.73	1	28%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.6	3	0.38	0	8%	0
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	1.6	6	0.19	1	10%	0
DET A. Copp	1.6	1	0.54	1	15%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.5	1	0.38	0	16%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.4	1	0.32	0	13%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.4	2	0.36	1	14%	1
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.3	0	0.32	0	16%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.3	0	0.24	0	4%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.2	1	0.20	0	6%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.1	0	0.36	0	15%	0
WPG B. Lambert	1.1	2	0.28	0	11%	0
WPG M. Ferraro	1.1	0	0.25	0	6%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.0	4	0.26	0	12%	0
DET N. Danielson	1.0	0	0.24	0	9%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.0	1	0.28	0	11%	0
WPG I. Rosen	1.0	0	0.22	0	11%	0
DET J. Compher	1.0	2	0.32	0	12%	0
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	0.9	3	0.27	0	7%	0
DET M. Appleton	0.9	0	0.23	0	9%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.9	0	0.25	0	5%	0
DET K. Kolesar	0.8	0	0.23	0	9%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.7	1	0.14	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 32 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.