Game Recap: WPG 6, EDM 0, October 9, 2024

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Game Recap

WPG6

FinalWed, Oct 9, 2024Every game that night

EDM0

WPG beat EDM 6-0, with the chances close: 2.46 expected goals to 2.51. EDM outshot WPG 30 to 20. M. Appleton led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Hellebuyck stopped 30 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	2	3	1	6
EDM	0	0	0	0

1st 14:56WPGA. Lowry0.02 xG
1st 18:35WPGM. Appleton0.08 xG
2nd 4:17WPGR. Kupari0.15 xG
2nd 4:37WPGD. Samberg0.02 xG
2nd 9:33WPGK. ConnorPP0.10 xG
3rd 14:15WPGM. ScheifelePP0.09 xG

Team Stats

WPGEDM

20Shots on goal30

2.46Expected goals2.51

39Shot attempts76

185v5 shots on goal27

2/3Power play0/1

11Hits20

29Blocked shots8

2Penalty minutes6

16Giveaways8

5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 2.46 xGEDM 2.51 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG20 on goal, 6 scored

EDM29 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Appleton	C	1	2	3	3	2	1	+3	0	16:11	0:00
M. Scheifele	C	1	1	2	4	0	1	0	0	18:34	1:55
A. Lowry	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	+3	0	16:01	0:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	2	2	1	1	2	+3	0	15:52	1:09
K. Connor	LW	1	0	1	1	0	3	0	2	17:59	1:55
G. Vilardi	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	17:26	1:55
N. Ehlers	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	13:52	1:55
M. Barron	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	12:28	0:00
R. Kupari	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	12:16	0:00
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	14:03	1:09
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	13:38	1:09
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	12:15	0:49
J. Morrissey	D	0	2	2	1	0	3	+2	0	23:39	1:55
D. Samberg	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	+2	0	23:21	0:00
N. Pionk	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+2	0	19:20	0:49
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	0	0	5	+2	0	19:33	0:00
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	16:15	0:20
C. Miller	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:17	0:20

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	30	30	0	1.000	60:00	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	0	1	0	-2	0	20:49	2:00
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	2	1	1	-2	0	18:48	1:37
L. Draisaitl	C	3	3	0	-2	2	17:35	2:00
Z. Hyman	LW	0	2	0	-2	0	17:05	2:00
V. Arvidsson	LW	2	0	1	-1	0	15:56	0:00
J. Skinner	LW	4	1	0	-1	0	13:56	0:00
A. Henrique	C	2	0	0	0	0	13:38	0:00
C. Brown	RW	3	1	0	0	0	12:46	0:00
M. Janmark	C	1	0	0	0	0	12:18	0:00
C. Perry	RW	2	0	0	-1	0	12:16	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	1	4	0	-1	0	11:47	0:00
D. Ryan	C	2	1	0	0	2	11:42	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	2	0	1	-1	0	25:04	2:00
M. Ekholm	D	2	0	1	-1	0	21:30	0:23
T. Emberson	D	0	3	0	-2	2	20:15	0:00
D. Nurse	D	1	2	2	-2	0	18:42	0:00
B. Kulak	D	2	0	2	-1	0	16:43	0:00
T. Dermott	D	1	1	0	-1	0	16:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	13	8	5	.615	31:08	Loss
C. Pickard	7	6	1	.857	28:52

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamStuart Skinner WPG Faces EDM, his team until Dec 20258 saves on 13
HometownStuart Skinner WPG Plays in his hometown8 saves on 13

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 2.7, EDM 3.3	WPG 6, EDM 0
Total goals	5.9	6
Shots on goal	WPG 25.7, EDM 32.2	WPG 20, EDM 30
Win chance	EDM 60%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM Z. Hyman	4.0	0	0.92	0	41%	0
EDM C. McDavid	3.8	0	1.64	0	40%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	3.5	2	0.76	0	25%	0
WPG K. Connor	3.3	1	0.85	1	34%	1
EDM L. Draisaitl	3.0	3	1.23	0	40%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.9	2	0.92	0	16%	0
WPG N. Ehlers	2.8	0	0.66	1	23%	0
EDM J. Skinner	2.5	4	0.58	0	24%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.3	2	0.87	0	24%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	2.2	0	0.62	1	27%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.2	4	0.85	2	31%	1
EDM M. Ekholm	2.2	2	0.47	0	10%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.0	1	0.71	2	13%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.9	1	0.38	2	19%	0
EDM D. Nurse	1.7	1	0.29	0	7%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.7	1	0.40	0	15%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.4	2	0.45	0	20%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.4	1	0.37	1	6%	0
WPG M. Appleton	1.4	3	0.33	3	12%	1
EDM C. Brown	1.4	3	0.28	0	10%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.3	3	0.35	2	14%	1
EDM B. Kulak	1.2	2	0.23	0	4%	0
EDM M. Janmark	1.2	1	0.28	0	11%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.2	2	0.27	0	13%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.1	0	0.20	0	5%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.1	0	0.26	0	11%	0
WPG H. Fleury	1.1	1	0.12	0	4%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.1	1	0.19	0	10%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.1	1	0.19	1	9%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.1	0	0.33	0	12%	0
EDM T. Emberson	1.0	0	0.27	0	4%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.0	0	0.32	0	5%	0
WPG D. Samberg	0.8	1	0.18	1	2%	1
WPG R. Kupari	0.8	2	0.14	1	5%	1
EDM T. Dermott	0.8	1	0.14	0	4%	0
EDM D. Ryan	0.7	2	0.14	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.