Game Recap: WPG 4, EDM 3 (OT), March 20, 2025

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Game Recap

WPG4

Final/OTThu, Mar 20, 2025Every game that night

EDM3

WPG beat EDM 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.99 expected goals to 3.28. J. Skinner led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). K. Connor had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. C. Hellebuyck stopped 21 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
WPG	1	1	1	1	4
EDM	1	1	1	0	3

1st 5:28EDMJ. Skinner0.04 xG
1st 13:39WPGC. Perfetti0.32 xG
2nd 5:30EDMJ. Skinner0.22 xG
2nd 7:41WPGJ. Morrissey0.08 xG
3rd 3:56WPGB. Tanev0.21 xG
3rd 14:26EDMZ. Hyman0.44 xG
OT 1:13WPGK. Connor0.10 xG

Team Stats

WPGEDM

20Shots on goal24

2.99Expected goals3.28

57Shot attempts62

165v5 shots on goal22

0/4Power play0/2

23Hits16

19Blocked shots18

2Penalty minutes8

22Giveaways14

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 2.99 xGEDM 3.28 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG20 on goal, 4 scored

EDM24 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	23:54	5:02
K. Connor	LW	1	0	1	7	0	0	0	0	23:43	5:00
N. Ehlers	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	15:45	4:51
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	14:12	1:52
C. Perfetti	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	2	12:53	2:00
B. Tanev	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	10:50	0:00
A. Iafallo	LW	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	10:46	1:51
M. Barron	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	+2	0	9:03	0:00
G. Vilardi	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	21:48	5:02
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	14:31	0:02
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:39	0:00
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	13:31	1:40
J. Morrissey	D	1	1	2	2	2	2	+2	0	27:29	4:41
D. Samberg	D	0	1	1	1	1	4	-1	0	23:38	0:19
H. Fleury	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	10:40	0:13
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	0	22:44	0:02
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	0	8	5	0	0	17:28	0:00
C. Miller	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	13:15	2:15

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	24	21	3	.875	61:03	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Skinner	LW	2	0	2	4	3	0	+2	0	17:06	3:15
Z. Hyman	LW	1	0	1	5	3	1	+2	0	19:40	3:00
C. McDavid	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	14:59	3:22
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	18:41	3:02
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	17:21	0:40
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:30	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	0	15:27	0:00
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	0	15:12	0:49
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:52	0:00
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:40	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	9:41	1:00
M. Jones	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	8:21	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	2	2	1	0	2	-1	2	21:56	0:58
J. Walman	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	20:13	0:42
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	2	1	4	0	2	21:20	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	21:05	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	-2	0	20:21	3:12
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	14:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	16	13	3	.813	55:03
C. Pickard	4	3	1	.750	6:10	OT loss

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamStuart Skinner WPG Faces EDM, his team until Dec 202513 saves on 16
HometownStuart Skinner WPG Plays in his hometown13 saves on 16

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 3.0, EDM 3.0	WPG 4, EDM 3
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	WPG 26.6, EDM 30.5	WPG 20, EDM 24
Win chance	EDM 51%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	2.9	7	0.98	1	35%	1
EDM C. McDavid	2.8	0	1.33	1	35%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.7	1	0.72	0	13%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	2.5	5	0.62	1	32%	1
WPG N. Ehlers	2.4	1	0.76	1	25%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.4	1	0.34	2	8%	0
EDM J. Walman	2.1	0	0.37	1	10%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.0	0	0.46	0	18%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	2.0	2	0.40	0	9%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	1.9	2	0.68	2	14%	1
WPG M. Scheifele	1.9	0	0.88	1	31%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	1.8	0	0.74	0	29%	0
EDM J. Skinner	1.7	4	0.40	2	19%	2
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.7	3	0.64	0	20%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.6	3	0.51	1	17%	1
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.5	0	0.38	1	18%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.4	1	0.27	0	5%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.3	1	0.34	0	18%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.3	1	0.27	1	6%	0
WPG M. Appleton	1.3	0	0.30	0	11%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.2	2	0.29	0	10%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.2	1	0.39	0	16%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.2	3	0.25	0	11%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.2	1	0.44	0	14%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.1	0	0.33	0	17%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.1	1	0.29	1	12%	0
WPG L. Schenn	1.0	0	0.14	0	4%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.0	0	0.19	0	5%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.0	1	0.17	1	9%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.0	0	0.24	0	10%	0
WPG B. Tanev	0.9	1	0.22	1	10%	1
EDM M. Jones	0.8	0	0.17	0	7%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.8	1	0.26	0	5%	0
WPG H. Fleury	0.8	0	0.11	1	2%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.7	1	0.11	0	3%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.7	0	0.22	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.