Game Recap: WPG 2, EDM 6, December 6, 2025

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Game Recap

WPG2

FinalSat, Dec 6, 2025Every game that night

EDM6

EDM beat WPG 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.71 expected goals to 2.20. L. Draisaitl led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Koepke had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. S. Skinner stopped 19 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	0	0	2	2
EDM	4	1	1	6

1st 3:00EDMR. Nugent-Hopkins0.27 xG
1st 4:37EDML. Draisaitl0.09 xG
1st 7:24EDMM. Savoie0.16 xG
1st 13:31EDME. BouchardPP0.13 xG
2nd 2:42EDMC. Lazar0.13 xG
3rd 4:12WPGG. Vilardi0.23 xG
3rd 13:29EDMD. Tomasek0.18 xG
3rd 15:25WPGC. Koepke0.03 xG

Team Stats

WPGEDM

21Shots on goal27

2.20Expected goals3.71

48Shot attempts47

185v5 shots on goal25

0/1Power play1/1

36Hits9

6Blocked shots12

4Penalty minutes4

12Giveaways16

5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 2.20 xGEDM 3.71 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG21 on goal, 2 scored

EDM27 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
G. Vilardi	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	19:20	1:05
M. Scheifele	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	18:41	1:07
K. Connor	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	2	17:32	1:06
C. Koepke	LW	1	0	1	4	4	0	+1	0	12:39	0:00
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	0	7	0	-1	0	16:09	0:00
J. Toews	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:57	0:55
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	14:31	1:05
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-3	0	13:33	0:55
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	13:04	0:54
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	12:36	0:00
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	3	6	1	+1	0	12:28	0:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-3	0	12:13	0:52
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	2	22:46	1:08
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	21:41	0:53
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-3	0	21:27	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	20:13	0:00
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	18:05	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	14:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Comrie	16	12	4	.750	19:44	Loss
T. Milic	11	9	2	.818	40:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	0	2	2	5	0	1	0	2	18:38	1:13
L. Draisaitl	C	1	1	2	1	1	1	+1	0	16:20	1:13
Z. Hyman	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	18:28	1:13
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	-1	0	18:06	1:13
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	1	1	1	4	1	+1	0	14:14	0:00
M. Savoie	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+2	0	13:42	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	13:22	0:00
D. Tomasek	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	12:50	0:00
C. Lazar	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	+2	0	12:48	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	11:39	0:00
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2	0	13:44	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:00	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	1	1	2	1	0	2	-1	0	20:51	1:13
M. Ekholm	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	19:11	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+3	0	17:36	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	21:41	0:00
A. Regula	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	+1	2	21:33	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	18:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	21	19	2	.905	60:00	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele16:28K. Connor15:27G. Vilardi17:07

Line 2J. Toews15:02A. Lowry14:30C. Perfetti11:54

Line 3T. Pearson11:53M. Barron11:56C. Koepke12:09

Line 4N. Niederreiter11:08V. Namestnikov12:26A. Iafallo13:14

Pair 1D. DeMelo19:42J. Morrissey21:22

Pair 2L. Schenn13:26D. Samberg17:06

Pair 3L. Stanley18:41N. Pionk19:04

EDM

Line 1Z. Hyman16:19C. McDavid16:17R. Nugent-Hopkins15:22

Line 2L. Draisaitl14:07V. Podkolzin13:28M. Savoie13:01

Line 3C. Lazar12:14D. Tomasek12:50T. Frederic11:39

Line 4A. Henrique12:09A. Mangiapane13:28M. Janmark12:16

Pair 1D. Nurse20:02A. Regula20:48

Pair 2M. Ekholm17:24E. Bouchard17:48

Pair 3B. Kulak16:35T. Emberson16:48

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamStuart Skinner WPG Faces EDM, his team until Dec 202519 saves on 21, the win
HometownStuart Skinner WPG Plays in his hometown19 saves on 21, the win

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 2.8, EDM 3.1	WPG 2, EDM 6
Total goals	5.9	8
Shots on goal	WPG 25.2, EDM 30.1	WPG 21, EDM 27
Win chance	EDM 55%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.0	2	1.04	1	35%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.8	1	0.89	2	16%	1
EDM C. McDavid	2.7	5	1.32	2	33%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	2.6	0	0.69	1	33%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.5	1	1.19	2	40%	1
EDM D. Nurse	2.1	5	0.38	0	9%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	2.1	2	0.47	1	9%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.0	3	0.98	1	32%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	2.0	1	0.75	1	29%	1
WPG C. Perfetti	1.7	1	0.52	0	18%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.7	2	0.68	1	20%	1
WPG J. Morrissey	1.6	1	0.67	0	13%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.5	0	0.41	0	19%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.5	0	0.40	0	18%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	1	0.38	1	15%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.5	3	0.32	1	15%	1
WPG N. Pionk	1.4	0	0.32	0	6%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.4	1	0.42	0	16%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.3	1	0.31	0	14%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.3	1	0.21	0	5%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.3	1	0.39	0	14%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.2	0	0.34	0	15%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.2	3	0.24	0	10%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.2	1	0.25	0	4%	0
EDM A. Mangiapane	1.2	0	0.35	0	16%	0
EDM D. Tomasek	1.1	1	0.21	1	10%	1
WPG T. Pearson	1.0	0	0.25	0	11%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.0	3	0.19	1	11%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.0	4	0.19	1	9%	1
EDM T. Emberson	0.9	0	0.22	1	4%	0
EDM A. Regula	0.9	1	0.08	0	4%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.8	0	0.25	1	9%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.8	1	0.28	0	4%	0
WPG L. Schenn	0.8	0	0.13	0	2%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.7	1	0.19	0	3%	0
EDM C. Lazar	0.6	1	0.16	1	7%	1

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.