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Game Recap
WPG2
FLA1
WPG beat FLA 2-1, with the chances close: 1.89 expected goals to 1.93. C. Verhaeghe had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. E. Comrie stopped 27 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| FLA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 14:40FLAE. Luostarinen0.04 xG
- 3rd 8:34WPGC. Perfetti0.24 xG
- 3rd 15:46WPGM. Scheifele0.14 xG
Team Stats
WPGFLA
21Shots on goal28
1.89Expected goals1.93
35Shot attempts56
165v5 shots on goal16
0/5Power play0/2
18Hits30
14Blocked shots7
4Penalty minutes8
18Giveaways9
4Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WPG 1.89 xGFLA 1.93 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Scheifele | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 25:26 | 6:19 |
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:04 | 6:28 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:08 | 6:27 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:34 | 6:22 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:36 | 1:51 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:18 | 0:00 |
| J. Toews | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:31 | 2:34 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:11 | 0:00 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:06 | 2:28 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:02 | 1:56 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:45 | 0:08 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 7:57 | 0:04 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:03 | 6:32 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:03 | 0:48 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:52 | 0:08 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 | 18:33 | 2:21 |
| E. Salomonsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:54 | 0:19 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Comrie | 28 | 27 | 1 | .964 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Hellebuyck | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:12 | 0:42 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:41 | 0:42 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:24 | 2:15 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:18 | 2:15 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:16 | 2:15 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:19 | 0:00 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:13 | 2:15 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:00 |
| S. Vilmanis | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:14 | 0:00 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:12 | 0:42 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:58 | 0:00 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:24 | 0:00 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:27 | 0:42 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 21:45 | 0:42 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:10 | 0:00 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:29 | 2:15 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:12 | 0:00 |
| T. Bjornfot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:12 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 21 | 19 | 2 | .905 | 59:11 | Loss |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
WPG
Line 1M. Scheifele17:34K. Connor16:42A. Iafallo11:23
Line 2G. Vilardi12:37C. Perfetti11:12A. Lowry9:45
Line 3J. Toews11:45N. Niederreiter10:06V. Namestnikov9:25
Line 4M. Barron8:30C. Koepke7:05G. Nyquist12:18
Pair 1D. DeMelo17:35J. Morrissey16:37
Pair 2D. Samberg15:46E. Salomonsson13:59
Pair 3L. Schenn13:09L. Stanley15:22
FLA
Line 1S. Reinhart13:33E. Rodrigues14:33E. Luostarinen12:19
Line 2C. Verhaeghe12:12S. Bennett11:44M. Tkachuk11:03
Line 3A. Greer12:13S. Vilmanis11:14C. Schwindt9:58
Line 4J. Boqvist10:02M. Samoskevich10:24L. Kunin9:02
Pair 1A. Ekblad16:31G. Forsling17:52
Pair 2N. Mikkola16:19U. Balinskis16:21
Pair 3J. Petry13:58T. Bjornfot11:32
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WPG 2.8, FLA 3.1 | WPG 2, FLA 1 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | WPG 23.8, FLA 28.6 | WPG 21, FLA 28 |
| Win chance | FLA 54% | WPG won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA S. Bennett | 3.1 | 3 | 0.91 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| WPG K. Connor | 2.8 | 5 | 1.05 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.7 | 4 | 1.09 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.6 | 2 | 1.01 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.2 | 7 | 0.76 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.1 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 1.9 | 4 | 0.76 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 1.9 | 2 | 1.00 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.7 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.7 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 1.6 | 3 | 0.72 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.6 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.5 | 3 | 0.44 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.5 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WPG E. Salomonsson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.3 | 2 | 0.43 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.3 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.3 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG J. Toews | 1.3 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.1 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG G. Nyquist | 1.1 | 0 | 0.39 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.0 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG C. Koepke | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA S. Vilmanis | 0.8 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG L. Schenn | 0.8 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA J. Petry | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA L. Kunin | 0.7 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA T. Bjornfot | 0.6 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA C. Schwindt | 0.5 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.