Game Recap: WPG 2, FLA 5, October 30, 2026

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Game Recap

WPG2

FinalFri, Oct 30, 2026Every game that night

FLA5

FLA beat WPG 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.45 expected goals to 2.53. FLA outshot WPG 38 to 24. A. Lundell scored three for FLA. A. Lundell had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. A. Schmid stopped 22 of 24.

Team Stats

WPGFLA

24Shots on goal38

2.53Expected goals3.45

48Shot attempts67

155v5 shots on goal26

1/4Power play2/5

25Hits25

20Blocked shots15

15Penalty minutes11

15Giveaways11

4Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 2.53 xGFLA 3.45 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG24 on goal, 2 scored

FLA37 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	0	1	1	1	0	4	-2	0	22:18	3:57
K. Connor	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	-3	0	20:44	4:06
D. Mercer	C	0	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	18:14	1:57
M. Barron	C	1	0	1	3	3	1	+1	2	15:04	0:13
G. Vilardi	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	20:05	4:01
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:38	3:37
V. Björck	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	15:30	1:42
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	14:07	1:48
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:57	0:17
I. Rosen	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:49	1:40
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	9:36	0:00
N. Pionk	D	0	1	1	4	5	0	-2	0	23:42	4:13
D. DeMelo	D	0	1	1	2	2	1	0	4	17:39	0:05
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	-2	0	20:40	0:42
E. Salomonsson	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	18:39	1:42
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	-1	0	18:18	0:00
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	2	15:19	0:00
T. Bauer	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	5	2:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
N. Daws	37	33	4	.892	58:06	Loss
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Lundell	C	3	0	3	8	2	0	+3	2	16:48	1:14
S. Reinhart	C	1	1	2	4	2	0	-1	0	19:46	3:27
E. Luostarinen	C	0	2	2	1	0	1	+3	0	16:27	0:55
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	19:58	3:28
L. Eller	C	0	1	1	2	0	2	+3	0	16:55	0:38
M. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	16:53	3:44
S. Vilmanis	LW	0	0	0	2	7	1	-1	0	16:05	0:00
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	6	3	0	0	0	14:58	3:12
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:25	0:53
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	2	9:37	0:11
C. Schwindt	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	8:28	0:11
B. Imama	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	5	6:07	0:11
S. Jones	D	1	2	3	1	0	3	+2	0	24:16	3:25
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	21:17	1:00
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+2	0	19:26	0:00
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	0	19:04	0:09
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	2	16:32	0:11
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:04	0:11

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Schmid	24	22	2	.917	60:00	Win
C. Black	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele16:19G. Vilardi14:10C. Perfetti13:07

Line 2A. Lowry11:32A. Iafallo11:22I. Rosen10:09

Line 3V. Björck13:48D. Mercer14:57K. Connor13:54

Line 4C. Koepke8:07M. Barron12:33

Pair 1D. Samberg15:59N. Pionk15:37

Pair 2D. DeMelo17:15M. Ferraro16:14

Pair 3H. Fleury14:43E. Salomonsson14:45

FLA

Line 1C. Verhaeghe16:00S. Vilmanis15:38S. Reinhart13:59

Line 2M. Tkachuk12:48S. Bennett13:11B. Tkachuk11:46

Line 3L. Eller11:51A. Lundell12:17E. Luostarinen12:33

Line 4G. Hathaway8:20C. Schwindt8:17B. Imama5:56

Pair 1S. Jones16:46N. Mikkola15:20

Pair 2A. Ekblad16:28G. Forsling15:06

Pair 3D. Kulikov16:21R. Gudas14:53

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 15 overs hit (53%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
FLA B. Tkachuk	3.5	+120	-150	6	Over
FLA A. Lundell	2.5	+140	-175	8	Over
WPG C. Perfetti	2.5	+150	-180	2	Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.5	+105	-130	3	Over
WPG K. Connor	2.5	-165	+135	2	Under
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.5	-115	-105	2	Under
FLA S. Bennett	2.5	+110	-130	2	Under
FLA S. Jones	2.5	+135	-180	1	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	2.5	-105	-115	4	Over
FLA A. Ekblad	1.5	+110	-140	2	Over
WPG E. Salomonsson	1.5	+135	-180	2	Over
FLA G. Forsling	1.5	-113	-115	2	Over
WPG G. Vilardi	1.5	-130	+102	1	Under
WPG M. Scheifele	1.5	-155	+134	1	Under
WPG N. Pionk	1.5	-105	-120	4	Over

5 of 33 overs hit (15%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
FLA A. Ekblad	0.5	+800	-2000	0	Under
WPG A. Iafallo	0.5	+725	-1200	0	Under
WPG A. Lowry	0.5	+850	-1400	0	Under
FLA A. Lundell	0.5	+260	-370	3	Over
FLA B. Imama	0.5	+950	-1600	0	Under
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	+140	-155	0	Under
WPG C. Koepke	0.5	+1000	-1400	0	Under
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	+300	-400	0	Under
FLA C. Schwindt	0.5	+800	-1400	0	Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	+180	-250	0	Under
WPG D. DeMelo	0.5	+2000	-3500	0	Under
FLA D. Kulikov	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
WPG D. Samberg	0.5	+1700	-4000	0	Under
FLA E. Luostarinen	0.5	+370	-550	0	Under
WPG E. Salomonsson	0.5	+875	-2500	0	Under
FLA G. Forsling	0.5	+1000	-1600	0	Under
FLA G. Hathaway	0.5	+900	-1600	0	Under
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	+290	-370	0	Under
WPG H. Fleury	0.5	+1600	-4000	0	Under
WPG I. Rosen	0.5	+550	-800	0	Under
WPG K. Connor	0.5	+190	-225	1	Over
FLA L. Eller	0.5	+475	-700	0	Under
WPG M. Barron	0.5	+900	-1400	1	Over
WPG M. Ferraro	0.5	+1900	-3500	0	Under
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	+270	-390	0	Under
FLA M. Tkachuk	0.5	+175	-210	0	Under
FLA N. Mikkola	0.5	+1300	-2000	0	Under
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+900	-1600	0	Under
FLA R. Gudas	0.5	+2000	-3500	0	Under
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	+210	-270	0	Under
FLA S. Jones	0.5	+480	-700	1	Over
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	+155	-200	1	Over
FLA S. Vilmanis	0.5	+550	-900	0	Under

7 of 17 overs hit (41%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
FLA A. Ekblad	0.5	+196	-235	0	Under
FLA A. Lundell	0.5	+255	-325	0	Under
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	+115	-150	0	Under
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	+200	-225	0	Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	+135	-145	1	Over
FLA E. Luostarinen	0.5	+300	-425	2	Over
WPG E. Salomonsson	0.5	+250	-320	0	Under
FLA G. Forsling	0.5	+245	-350	0	Under
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	+200	-215	0	Under
WPG K. Connor	0.5	+140	-175	0	Under
FLA L. Eller	0.5	+270	-500	1	Over
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	+125	-145	1	Over
FLA M. Tkachuk	0.5	-155	+125	0	Under
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+180	-230	1	Over
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	+155	-210	0	Under
FLA S. Jones	0.5	-105	-115	2	Over
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	+105	-130	1	Over

9 of 17 overs hit (53%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
FLA M. Tkachuk	1.5	+146	-180	0	Under
FLA A. Ekblad	0.5	+150	-175	0	Under
FLA A. Lundell	0.5	+120	-150	3	Over
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	-220	+170	0	Under
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	+100	-120	0	Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	-150	+145	1	Over
FLA E. Luostarinen	0.5	+165	-185	2	Over
WPG E. Salomonsson	0.5	+176	-210	0	Under
FLA G. Forsling	0.5	+195	-250	0	Under
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	+100	-110	0	Under
WPG K. Connor	0.5	-155	+135	1	Over
FLA L. Eller	0.5	+160	-200	1	Over
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	-145	+125	1	Over
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+140	-175	1	Over
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	-135	+110	0	Under
FLA S. Jones	0.5	-145	+125	3	Over
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	-190	+180	2	Over

6 of 16 overs hit (38%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
FLA A. Ekblad	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
FLA A. Lundell	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	+210	-250	0	Under
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	+270	-300	0	Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	+210	-275	1	Over
FLA E. Luostarinen	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
WPG E. Salomonsson	0.5	+350	-500	0	Under
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	+270	-300	0	Under
WPG I. Rosen	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
WPG K. Connor	0.5	+220	-275	1	Over
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	+220	-295	1	Over
FLA M. Tkachuk	0.5	+160	-170	0	Under
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+450	-1200	1	Over
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	+425	-650	0	Under
FLA S. Jones	0.5	+180	-250	2	Over
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	+200	-260	2	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
FLA A. Schmid	21.5	-104	-115	22	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 2.7, FLA 3.3	WPG 2, FLA 5
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	WPG 24.0, FLA 28.4	WPG 24, FLA 38
Win chance	FLA 60%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA B. Tkachuk	3.1	6	0.83	0	29%	0
WPG K. Connor	2.6	2	0.89	1	32%	1
FLA S. Reinhart	2.5	4	0.96	2	36%	1
FLA S. Bennett	2.5	2	0.73	0	27%	0
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.4	2	1.12	0	31%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.4	3	0.86	1	31%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	2.2	2	0.64	0	23%	0
WPG N. Pionk	2.0	4	0.49	1	10%	0
FLA A. Lundell	2.0	8	0.60	3	20%	3
WPG M. Scheifele	1.9	1	1.02	1	32%	0
FLA S. Jones	1.9	1	0.60	3	11%	1
WPG G. Vilardi	1.6	1	0.70	0	27%	0
WPG D. Mercer	1.6	2	0.41	1	18%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.5	2	0.37	0	9%	0
FLA S. Vilmanis	1.4	2	0.36	0	16%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.4	1	0.48	2	16%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.4	2	0.46	0	10%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.3	0	0.26	0	5%	0
FLA L. Eller	1.3	2	0.40	1	15%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.2	1	0.26	0	7%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.2	3	0.27	1	12%	1
WPG A. Iafallo	1.1	2	0.30	0	13%	0
WPG M. Ferraro	1.1	2	0.23	0	5%	0
WPG E. Salomonsson	1.1	2	0.17	0	4%	0
WPG I. Rosen	1.1	0	0.24	0	12%	0
WPG V. Björck	1.0	0	0.23	0	13%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.0	0	0.19	0	9%	0
WPG A. Lowry	0.9	0	0.32	0	14%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.9	2	0.23	1	4%	0
FLA C. Schwindt	0.9	0	0.23	0	9%	0
WPG H. Fleury	0.9	1	0.16	0	3%	0
FLA R. Gudas	0.8	1	0.18	0	3%	0
FLA G. Hathaway	0.8	0	0.19	0	10%	0
FLA B. Imama	0.7	0	0.09	0	6%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	0.7	1	0.17	0	4%	0
WPG T. Bauer	0.6	0	0.06	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 27 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.