Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
WPG0
LAK3
LAK beat WPG 3-0, with the chances close: 2.79 expected goals to 2.24. J. Edmundson had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. D. Kuemper stopped 23 of 23.
Team Stats
WPGLAK
23Shots on goal26
2.24Expected goals2.79
49Shot attempts54
105v5 shots on goal19
0/5Power play1/6
16Hits13
15Blocked shots10
10Penalty minutes8
10Giveaways12
5Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WPG 2.24 xGLAK 2.79 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 22:13 | 4:43 |
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:12 | 4:45 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:24 | 4:41 |
| J. Toews | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:14 | 3:26 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:52 | 4:24 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15:14 | 3:25 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:08 | 0:09 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:31 | 3:15 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:27 | 3:17 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:08 | 0:00 |
| P. Ford | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7:43 | 0:01 |
| B. Lambert | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6:58 | 0:24 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 25:40 | 5:09 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:31 | 3:06 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 20:23 | 0:38 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:53 | 0:07 |
| H. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:44 | 0:00 |
| C. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:19 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 25 | 23 | 2 | .920 | 58:12 | Loss |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:15 | 4:24 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:48 | 5:20 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:50 | 5:25 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:02 | 0:00 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:51 | 4:53 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 17:09 | 5:23 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:48 | 3:22 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:46 | 3:29 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:40 | 0:03 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:05 | 4:26 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:54 | 0:00 |
| J. Malott | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:58 | 0:00 |
| D. Doughty | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 23:22 | 3:26 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:59 | 0:00 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:54 | 0:08 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:23 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:21 | 0:00 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:20 | 3:21 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 23 | 23 | 0 | 1.000 | 59:35 | Win |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
WPG
Line 1M. Scheifele12:43K. Connor12:11G. Vilardi12:16
Line 2J. Toews11:09A. Iafallo10:45V. Namestnikov9:57
Line 3N. Niederreiter8:45T. Pearson7:56A. Lowry9:35
Line 4C. Koepke7:56P. Ford7:20B. Lambert6:34
Pair 1L. Stanley16:42N. Pionk12:59
Pair 2D. DeMelo14:02J. Morrissey13:19
LAK
Line 1P. Danault11:20A. Kuzmenko10:39T. Moore10:31
Line 2A. Laferriere10:32Q. Byfield9:45K. Fiala8:50
Line 3A. Kopitar9:11J. Armia9:36A. Kempe10:06
Line 4C. Perry8:39A. Turcotte9:54J. Malott7:58
Pair 1B. Dumoulin14:32C. Ceci12:39
Pair 2D. Doughty16:02M. Anderson12:49
Pair 3J. Edmundson11:13B. Clarke10:59
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WPG 2.9, LAK 2.8 | WPG 0, LAK 3 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | WPG 26.6, LAK 28.5 | WPG 23, LAK 26 |
| Win chance | WPG 52% | LAK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.1 | 2 | 0.99 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| LAK K. Fiala | 3.1 | 2 | 0.75 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 3.1 | 3 | 0.86 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.3 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.2 | 1 | 0.67 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.1 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.0 | 4 | 0.90 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 1.9 | 0 | 0.71 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 1.9 | 3 | 0.64 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.8 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.8 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK C. Perry | 1.8 | 3 | 0.45 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.6 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.5 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kuzmenko | 1.5 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.5 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.5 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| LAK P. Danault | 1.4 | 4 | 0.47 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.4 | 0 | 0.73 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| WPG J. Toews | 1.4 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| LAK J. Armia | 1.3 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.3 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG T. Pearson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG C. Koepke | 1.1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.0 | 4 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK C. Ceci | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG C. Miller | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK B. Dumoulin | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WPG H. Fleury | 0.9 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG P. Ford | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG B. Lambert | 0.8 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK J. Malott | 0.6 | 2 | 0.11 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.