WPG beat MIN 4-1, with the chances close: 2.70 expected goals to 2.96. MIN outshot WPG 44 to 32. A. Iafallo led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Middleton had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. C. Hellebuyck stopped 43 of 44.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| MIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 8:37MINJ. Middleton0.19 xG
- 1st 10:03WPGA. Iafallo0.07 xG
- 2nd 12:05WPGN. Niederreiter0.13 xG
- 3rd 13:20WPGA. IafalloPP0.09 xG
- 3rd 18:57WPGA. LowryEN0.48 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WPG 2.70 xGMIN 2.96 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Iafallo | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 13:13 | 2:01 |
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:36 | 3:06 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:22 | 1:29 |
| A. Lowry | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:03 | 0:00 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:19 | 2:46 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:28 | 1:44 |
| R. Kupari | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:00 | 0:00 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:45 | 1:45 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18:07 | 3:06 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:32 | 3:05 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:00 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:03 | 0:00 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:54 | 1:34 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25:02 | 3:17 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:42 | 0:00 |
| H. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18:14 | 0:00 |
| C. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:40 | 0:22 |
| V. Heinola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:14 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 44 | 43 | 1 | .977 | 60:00 | Win |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:00 | 1:41 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:12 | 2:19 |
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:08 | 2:19 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 22:52 | 2:20 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:14 | 2:21 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:09 | 1:41 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:54 | 0:00 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:58 | 0:00 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 13:09 | 1:40 |
| B. Jones | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:49 | 0:00 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:47 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:08 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24:54 | 2:38 |
| J. Middleton | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 19:27 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 22:03 | 0:02 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:56 | 1:32 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:40 | 0:00 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:05 | 1:27 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 31 | 28 | 3 | .903 | 58:44 | Loss |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WPG 3.0, MIN 2.9 | WPG 4, MIN 1 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | WPG 28.3, MIN 30.2 | WPG 32, MIN 44 |
| Win chance | WPG 50% | WPG won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.5 | 5 | 1.22 | 0 | 43% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.2 | 4 | 0.86 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| WPG K. Connor | 3.0 | 3 | 0.88 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 2.9 | 3 | 0.68 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| WPG N. Ehlers | 2.6 | 2 | 0.74 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.3 | 5 | 0.56 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.2 | 1 | 0.78 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 2.0 | 4 | 0.66 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 1.9 | 3 | 0.85 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.9 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.8 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.8 | 4 | 0.44 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.8 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.6 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.6 | 3 | 0.45 | 2 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.6 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.5 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.5 | 2 | 0.47 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| WPG M. Appleton | 1.4 | 3 | 0.36 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.3 | 4 | 0.40 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.2 | 5 | 0.30 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.43 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG C. Miller | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG H. Fleury | 1.1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 1.1 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG V. Heinola | 1.1 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.0 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.0 | 2 | 0.27 | 2 | 11% | 2 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.0 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN J. Lauko | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WPG R. Kupari | 0.9 | 0 | 0.14 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.6 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.