Game Recap: WPG 4, MIN 3 (OT), October 28, 2025

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Game Recap

WPG4

Final/OTTue, Oct 28, 2025Every game that night

MIN3

WPG beat MIN 4-3 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.27 expected goals to 3.54. MIN outshot WPG 35 to 21. B. Faber led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Faber had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. C. Hellebuyck stopped 32 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
WPG	2	0	1	1	4
MIN	0	2	1	0	3

1st 12:16WPGG. Vilardi0.14 xG
1st 12:38WPGV. Namestnikov0.08 xG
2nd 6:03MINK. Kaprizov0.44 xG
2nd 13:12MINB. Faber0.19 xG
3rd 3:48MINM. JohanssonPP0.18 xG
3rd 11:35WPGN. Niederreiter0.24 xG
OT 0:46WPGK. Connor0.13 xG

Team Stats

WPGMIN

21Shots on goal35

2.27Expected goals3.54

48Shot attempts76

195v5 shots on goal30

0/1Power play1/4

24Hits28

17Blocked shots10

13Penalty minutes7

12Giveaways14

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 2.27 xGMIN 3.54 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG21 on goal, 4 scored

MIN35 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	0	2	2	2	0	0	+1	0	19:09	0:00
K. Connor	LW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	19:13	0:00
G. Vilardi	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	17:58	0:00
V. Namestnikov	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	17:26	0:22
M. Barron	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	15:54	0:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	14:07	0:00
G. Nyquist	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	13:08	0:14
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	15:19	0:22
J. Toews	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:32	0:22
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	9:17	0:00
P. Ford	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	8:58	0:00
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	8:54	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	2	2	1	2	3	+2	2	22:45	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	0	25:44	0:22
N. Pionk	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+2	0	24:53	0:00
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	-1	0	24:51	0:08
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	2	11:40	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	5	11:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	35	32	3	.914	60:45	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rossi	C	0	2	2	2	1	1	+1	0	17:15	1:05
K. Kaprizov	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	22:17	4:37
M. Boldy	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	2	19:46	4:41
M. Johansson	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	-1	0	19:40	1:04
V. Hinostroza	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	10:08	0:00
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	4	5	0	-2	0	19:53	3:44
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	0	18:18	4:35
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:34	1:52
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	11:30	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	11:27	0:00
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	9:18	0:00
T. Pitlick	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	8:58	0:00
B. Faber	D	1	1	2	7	0	2	-1	0	21:25	1:17
J. Spurgeon	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	-1	0	27:06	4:23
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	-2	5	20:05	0:00
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	19:43	0:00
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:48	1:02
D.Jiricek	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	21	17	4	.810	60:46	OT loss
J. Wallstedt	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1G. Vilardi17:57K. Connor16:12M. Scheifele16:39

Line 2V. Namestnikov14:20A. Iafallo13:58J. Toews14:06

Line 3G. Nyquist12:44N. Niederreiter14:07M. Barron13:20

Line 4T. Pearson7:42P. Ford8:18C. Koepke7:03

Pair 1D. DeMelo20:54J. Morrissey21:42

Pair 2L. Stanley21:42N. Pionk21:40

Pair 3L. Schenn8:28H. Fleury10:48

MIN

Line 1K. Kaprizov16:13M. Rossi15:14M. Johansson17:18

Line 2V. Tarasenko13:43J. Ek14:19M. Boldy15:05

Line 3M. Foligno11:29R. Hartman13:42V. Hinostroza10:08

Line 4Y. Trenin11:27D. Yurov9:18T. Pitlick8:58

Pair 1J. Spurgeon21:53J. Middleton19:05

Pair 2J. Brodin18:33B. Faber18:22

Pair 3D.Jiricek12:07Z. Buium14:46

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 3.1, MIN 2.7	WPG 4, MIN 3
Total goals	5.8	7
Shots on goal	WPG 28.4, MIN 27.4	WPG 21, MIN 35
Win chance	WPG 57%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.5	3	1.13	1	42%	1
MIN M. Boldy	3.4	2	0.89	1	32%	0
WPG K. Connor	3.3	4	1.08	1	36%	1
MIN J. Ek	3.0	4	0.64	0	25%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.4	1	0.45	0	20%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.2	2	0.99	2	34%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.2	1	0.79	1	13%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	2.0	1	0.75	1	29%	1
WPG N. Pionk	2.0	1	0.44	1	7%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.8	5	0.55	0	22%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.7	3	0.39	1	19%	1
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.6	2	0.40	1	9%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.6	0	0.41	0	17%	0
MIN M. Rossi	1.6	2	0.48	2	19%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.6	7	0.27	2	6%	1
MIN M. Johansson	1.5	2	0.39	1	15%	1
WPG J. Toews	1.3	0	0.42	0	16%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.3	1	0.26	1	12%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.2	1	0.30	0	6%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.2	0	0.19	0	11%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	1.2	0	0.23	1	11%	0
MIN Z. Buium	1.2	1	0.37	0	4%	0
WPG T. Pearson	1.2	1	0.27	0	11%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.1	1	0.40	1	14%	1
WPG G. Nyquist	1.1	2	0.40	1	13%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.1	0	0.32	0	4%	0
WPG H. Fleury	1.1	1	0.16	0	2%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.1	1	0.30	0	14%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.1	2	0.20	0	11%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.0	0	0.21	0	5%	0
WPG P. Ford	0.9	0	0.22	0	11%	0
WPG L. Schenn	0.9	0	0.11	0	2%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.9	1	0.22	2	3%	0
MIN T. Pitlick	0.8	2	0.14	0	6%	0
MIN D.Jiricek	0.7	1	0.16	0	3%	0
MIN D. Yurov	0.7	1	0.17	0	10%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.