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Game Recap
WPG6
MIN2
WPG beat MIN 6-2, with the chances close: 3.09 expected goals to 2.42. M. Scheifele led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). J. Spurgeon had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. C. Hellebuyck stopped 32 of 34.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| MIN | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 14:08WPGJ. ToewsPP0.70 xG
- 1st 19:49WPGT. Pearson0.09 xG
- 1st 19:57WPGJ. Morrissey0.02 xG
- 2nd 4:53MIND. Yurov0.16 xG
- 2nd 9:33WPGL. Stanley0.02 xG
- 2nd 12:51WPGG. VilardiPP0.41 xG
- 2nd 17:12WPGM. Scheifele0.03 xG
- 3rd 17:18MINM. Johansson0.16 xG
Team Stats
WPGMIN
29Shots on goal34
3.09Expected goals2.42
49Shot attempts56
255v5 shots on goal26
2/4Power play0/3
19Hits11
12Blocked shots7
6Penalty minutes8
7Giveaways13
2Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WPG 3.09 xGMIN 2.42 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Scheifele | C | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:55 | 4:11 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:06 | 4:11 |
| J. Toews | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:45 | 4:11 |
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:38 | 4:11 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 16:47 | 2:02 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:54 | 0:03 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:51 | 0:05 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:13 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:16 | 2:04 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:46 | 1:54 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:40 | 1:52 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:13 | 5:07 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:49 | 0:00 |
| L. Stanley | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:04 | 1:00 |
| E. Salomonsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:45 | 0:15 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:36 | 0:11 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -1 | 2 | 16:44 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 34 | 32 | 2 | .941 | 59:42 | Win |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:16 | 4:18 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:25 | 3:46 |
| D. Yurov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:46 | 2:14 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:35 | 1:42 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:52 | 1:05 |
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:04 | 4:55 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:23 | 3:43 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 15:37 | 0:00 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:17 | 0:00 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:52 | 0:00 |
| B. Jones | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:05 | 0:00 |
| T. Pitlick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 8:19 | 0:00 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:40 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 28:28 | 4:55 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 25:38 | 1:05 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:57 | 2:17 |
| D. Spacek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:59 | 0:00 |
| D. Hunt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:36 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Wallstedt | 20 | 14 | 6 | .700 | 40:00 | Loss |
| F. Gustavsson | 9 | 9 | 0 | 1.000 | 20:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
WPG
Line 1M. Scheifele14:26K. Connor13:29A. Iafallo13:31
Line 2T. Pearson11:11M. Barron12:33C. Koepke10:15
Line 3G. Vilardi11:55C. Perfetti10:52J. Toews10:52
Line 4N. Niederreiter11:12V. Namestnikov10:48A. Lowry10:52
Pair 1D. Samberg14:56E. Salomonsson16:28
Pair 2J. Morrissey16:48D. DeMelo16:16
Pair 3L. Schenn15:35L. Stanley15:01
MIN
Line 1D. Yurov13:14M. Zuccarello12:22K. Kaprizov15:01
Line 2M. Johansson12:37R. Hartman14:36M. Boldy12:04
Line 3M. Foligno13:20N. Sturm10:31V. Tarasenko12:44
Line 4T. Pitlick8:19B. Jones9:05Y. Trenin8:19
Pair 2J. Spurgeon13:57J. Middleton16:09
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WPG 2.9, MIN 2.9 | WPG 6, MIN 2 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | WPG 26.9, MIN 27.8 | WPG 29, MIN 34 |
| Win chance | MIN 51% | WPG won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.4 | 0 | 1.20 | 0 | 42% | 0 |
| WPG K. Connor | 3.1 | 2 | 1.00 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 2.9 | 4 | 0.94 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| MIN Q. Hughes | 2.8 | 1 | 1.08 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.2 | 2 | 0.97 | 4 | 33% | 1 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.1 | 2 | 0.72 | 2 | 14% | 1 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.1 | 3 | 0.82 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.0 | 3 | 0.51 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 1.9 | 3 | 0.71 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.9 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.7 | 4 | 0.31 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.7 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.6 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MIN V. Tarasenko | 1.5 | 3 | 0.46 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.5 | 0 | 0.37 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| WPG J. Toews | 1.4 | 1 | 0.41 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.4 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.4 | 3 | 0.48 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| MIN D. Yurov | 1.3 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.3 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.2 | 5 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG C. Koepke | 1.1 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 1.0 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| WPG T. Pearson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| MIN N. Sturm | 1.0 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG L. Schenn | 0.9 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN B. Jones | 0.9 | 2 | 0.06 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN T. Pitlick | 0.8 | 3 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN D. Hunt | 0.5 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 15 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.