Game Recap: WPG 4, MTL 1, January 28, 2025

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Game Recap

WPG4

FinalTue, Jan 28, 2025Every game that night

MTL1

WPG beat MTL 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.54 expected goals to 2.68. K. Connor led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). B. Gallagher had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. C. Hellebuyck stopped 24 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	1	2	1	4
MTL	1	0	0	1

1st 11:03MTLJ. Slafkovský0.10 xG
1st 15:36WPGK. Connor0.30 xG
2nd 10:44WPGM. Scheifele0.16 xG
2nd 19:58WPGK. Connor0.05 xG
3rd 18:15WPGR. KupariEN0.93 xG

Team Stats

WPGMTL

24Shots on goal25

3.54Expected goals2.68

61Shot attempts59

195v5 shots on goal25

0/3Power play0/0

13Hits40

20Blocked shots14

0Penalty minutes6

16Giveaways17

5Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 3.54 xGMTL 2.68 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG24 on goal, 4 scored

MTL25 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
K. Connor	LW	2	0	2	3	0	0	+3	19:36	4:09
G. Vilardi	C	0	2	2	0	0	3	+2	16:41	3:51
M. Scheifele	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+2	18:39	4:07
N. Ehlers	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	16:08	3:51
C. Perfetti	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	15:02	1:50
R. Kupari	C	1	0	1	2	2	3	+1	14:15	0:00
D. Gustafsson	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	13:17	0:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:00	2:11
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:43	0:00
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	14:40	1:50
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	14:06	1:53
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:10	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+3	23:51	4:18
D. DeMelo	D	0	1	1	2	1	3	+4	22:47	0:00
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	24:42	1:41
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	0	22:15	0:19
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	10:54	0:00
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	10:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	25	24	1	.960	59:13	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	0	1	1	3	1	1	-1	0	20:36	0:00
C. Caufield	RW	0	1	1	4	4	2	-1	0	18:09	0:00
J. Slafkovský	LW	1	0	1	1	1	2	-1	0	17:35	0:00
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	15:42	0:00
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	14:59	0:00
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	14:45	0:00
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	13:53	0:00
P. Laine	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:47	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	5	0	0	-2	0	13:17	0:00
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:03	0:00
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:27	0:00
M. Pezzetta	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	5:15	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	23:35	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	-2	0	22:41	0:00
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	2	19:13	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	2	8	0	-1	2	18:35	0:00
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	18:29	0:00
D. Savard	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	0	2	18:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Montembeault	23	20	3	.870	59:31	Loss
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayAlex Newhook MTL Turns 24 that day1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 3.2, MTL 2.6	WPG 4, MTL 1
Total goals	5.8	5
Shots on goal	WPG 28.8, MTL 27.0	WPG 24, MTL 25
Win chance	WPG 59%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.2	3	1.04	2	38%	2
MTL C. Caufield	3.1	4	0.70	1	30%	0
WPG N. Ehlers	2.6	0	0.82	1	27%	0
MTL P. Laine	2.6	1	0.70	0	28%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.1	1	0.91	1	34%	1
MTL M. Matheson	2.1	1	0.54	0	10%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	2.1	2	0.49	0	24%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.0	3	0.79	1	25%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.0	0	0.77	1	12%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	1.9	0	0.76	2	31%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.8	1	0.53	1	19%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.7	5	0.34	0	15%	0
MTL J. Armia	1.7	0	0.36	0	16%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.6	1	0.41	0	18%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.6	2	0.51	0	8%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.6	1	0.51	1	17%	1
WPG A. Iafallo	1.5	3	0.37	0	16%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.5	1	0.40	0	16%	0
WPG M. Appleton	1.5	0	0.38	0	15%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.4	0	0.32	0	7%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.4	1	0.29	0	15%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.3	2	0.30	0	5%	0
MTL C. Dvorak	1.3	1	0.34	0	13%	0
WPG H. Fleury	1.2	0	0.18	0	3%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.2	4	0.49	0	17%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.2	1	0.31	0	5%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.2	2	0.65	0	6%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.2	0	0.20	0	11%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	0	0.38	0	13%	0
WPG R. Kupari	1.1	2	0.19	1	8%	1
WPG D. DeMelo	1.0	2	0.33	1	5%	0
WPG L. Stanley	1.0	1	0.22	0	4%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	1.0	2	0.13	0	4%	0
WPG D. Gustafsson	0.9	1	0.18	1	7%	0
MTL D. Savard	0.7	1	0.21	0	4%	0
MTL M. Pezzetta	0.5	0	0.11	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.