Game Recap: WPG 2, MTL 3 (SO), December 3, 2025

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Game Recap

WPG2

Final/SOWed, Dec 3, 2025Every game that night

MTL3

MTL beat WPG 3-2 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 4.52 expected goals to 2.71. K. Connor led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). V. Namestnikov had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Dobes stopped 30 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
WPG	1	1	0	0	2
MTL	0	2	0	1	3

1st 18:35WPGM. Scheifele0.21 xG
2nd 9:59MTLJ. SlafkovskýPP0.17 xG
2nd 11:53WPGK. Connor0.09 xG
2nd 14:03MTLO. Kapanen0.21 xG

Team Stats

WPGMTL

32Shots on goal31

2.71Expected goals4.52

68Shot attempts65

305v5 shots on goal25

0/1Power play1/1

22Hits25

15Blocked shots19

7Penalty minutes7

25Giveaways14

6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 2.71 xGMTL 4.52 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG32 on goal, 2 scored

MTL30 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	1	1	2	1	0	1	+1	0	22:06	1:00
K. Connor	LW	1	1	2	4	0	1	+1	0	21:07	0:58
G. Vilardi	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	19:40	0:59
J. Toews	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	19:04	1:01
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	18:22	1:00
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:06	1:02
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	16:22	0:59
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	15:58	1:01
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	5	14:48	0:00
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	10:07	0:00
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	8:33	0:00
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	8:11	0:00
D. DeMelo	D	0	1	1	1	2	3	-1	0	24:52	0:10
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	27:57	0:57
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	+1	0	24:18	0:53
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	22:03	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	0	12:19	0:00
E. Salomonsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	11:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Comrie	31	29	2	.935	65:00	OT loss
T. Milic	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
O. Kapanen	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	20:07	0:00
N. Suzuki	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	-2	0	20:06	0:28
J. Slafkovský	LW	1	0	1	3	3	2	-2	0	20:06	0:28
C. Caufield	RW	0	1	1	4	1	0	-2	0	19:55	0:28
I. Demidov	RW	0	1	1	4	1	1	+1	2	19:29	0:28
A. Texier	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	17:56	0:00
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:22	0:00
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	15:23	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	13:03	0:00
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	9:50	0:00
J. Davidson	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	8:18	0:00
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	7:54	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	-1	0	27:12	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	26:19	0:28
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	0	0	6	-1	0	21:16	0:00
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:18	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:54	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	5	13:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	32	30	2	.938	64:51	Win
S. Montembeault	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele18:24K. Connor17:51G. Vilardi18:05

Line 2J. Toews16:33V. Namestnikov15:54C. Perfetti15:30

Line 3N. Niederreiter14:57A. Iafallo14:55A. Lowry13:32

Line 4C. Koepke8:24T. Pearson8:02M. Barron9:54

Pair 1D. DeMelo24:33J. Morrissey23:43

Pair 2D. Samberg21:07N. Pionk21:33

Pair 3L. Stanley12:19E. Salomonsson11:39

MTL

Line 1O. Kapanen18:34I. Demidov17:46A. Texier16:53

Line 2J. Slafkovský18:22C. Caufield17:33N. Suzuki16:29

Line 3J. Anderson13:45J. Evans14:46B. Gallagher13:03

Line 4J. Veleno8:37J. Davidson8:18Z. Bolduc7:54

Pair 1M. Matheson22:58N. Dobson20:43

Pair 2J. Struble17:49L. Hutson23:00

Pair 3A. Carrier16:44A. Xhekaj13:41

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 3.2, MTL 2.6	WPG 2, MTL 3
Total goals	5.8	5
Shots on goal	WPG 27.0, MTL 25.0	WPG 32, MTL 31
Win chance	WPG 60%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.2	4	1.16	2	39%	1
MTL C. Caufield	2.7	4	0.74	1	30%	0
MTL N. Dobson	2.1	0	0.54	0	10%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.1	1	1.07	2	36%	1
WPG G. Vilardi	2.1	3	0.82	1	32%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	1.9	2	0.84	1	25%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.9	1	0.60	0	21%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	1.9	2	0.85	0	16%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.8	3	0.54	1	20%	1
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.7	1	0.46	0	21%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.6	1	0.43	0	9%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.5	2	0.43	0	19%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.5	2	0.33	0	14%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.5	2	0.39	0	7%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.5	2	0.49	0	18%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.4	2	0.77	0	8%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.4	1	0.34	0	15%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.4	2	0.38	1	15%	1
WPG M. Barron	1.3	0	0.27	0	12%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.3	3	0.31	0	5%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.3	1	0.38	0	17%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.3	5	0.44	0	16%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.2	1	0.28	0	15%	0
WPG T. Pearson	1.2	0	0.29	0	13%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.1	1	0.28	1	12%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.1	4	0.54	1	15%	0
MTL J. Veleno	1.0	3	0.21	0	10%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.0	2	0.19	0	10%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.0	1	0.28	0	4%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.0	1	0.33	1	5%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.0	1	0.31	0	10%	0
MTL J. Davidson	0.9	1	0.12	0	7%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.9	1	0.10	0	3%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.9	2	0.25	0	5%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.8	0	0.20	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.