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Game Recap
WPG5
Final/OTTue, Nov 3, 2026Every game that night
MTL4

WPG beat MTL 5-4 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.75 expected goals to 3.28. WPG outshot MTL 47 to 22. K. Connor led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). K. Connor had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. S. Skinner stopped 18 of 22.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
WPG00415
MTL21104
  1. 1st 3:05MTLO. Beck0.09 xG
  2. 1st 18:18MTLJ. Anderson0.12 xG
  3. 2nd 4:00MTLC. CaufieldPP0.35 xG
  4. 3rd 0:46MTLC. CaufieldPP0.11 xG
  5. 3rd 17:21WPGT. Bauer0.07 xG
  6. 3rd 18:03WPGM. Barron0.09 xG
  7. 3rd 19:00WPGK. Connor0.01 xG
  8. 3rd 19:27WPGK. ConnorPP0.01 xG
  9. OT 3:30WPGD. Samberg0.23 xG

Team Stats

WPGMTL
47Shots on goal22
4.75Expected goals3.28
87Shot attempts46
295v5 shots on goal16
1/5Power play2/4
20Hits16
9Blocked shots23
20Penalty minutes22
9Giveaways14
4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 4.75 xGMTL 3.28 xGGoal

0123451st2nd3rdOTMTL goal, 3:05MTL goal, 18:18MTL goal, 4:00MTL goal, 0:46WPG goal, 17:21WPG goal, 18:03WPG goal, 19:00WPG goal, 19:27WPG goal, 3:30

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG47 on goal, 5 scored
MTL21 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. ScheifeleC022310+1228:096:32
K. ConnorLW202800+1027:506:33
M. BarronC112601+2215:250:02
G. VilardiC011311+2025:146:33
A. LowryC011330+1516:070:22
C. KoepkeLW011130+106:530:00
C. PerfettiC000611+1021:036:11
D. MercerC0002000019:421:30
A. IafalloLW000110-1011:061:28
V. BjörckC000210-1010:111:29
N. NiederreiterRW000001-206:251:30
D. DeMeloD022110+1018:380:00
T. BauerD112220+2510:440:00
D. SambergD101100+1018:020:00
N. PionkD000331+1423:325:11
M. FerraroD0001220019:130:00
E. SalomonssonD0004020217:392:51
H. FleuryD000010-107:360:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Skinner22184.81862:18Win
N. Daws000–0:00

MTL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. CaufieldRW202400-1017:224:06
J. SlafkovskýLW022101-1016:303:35
J. AndersonRW101220+1017:450:00
C. KreiderLW0110100013:321:41
O. BeckC101110009:270:00
F. XhekajLW011331+198:540:00
A. NewhookC0001000019:433:29
J. EvansC000000-1019:240:00
P. DanaultC000003-2018:291:02
A. TexierLW000201-1014:351:53
Z. BolducRW000000-1013:012:39
O. KapanenC0001000010:581:32
K. GuhleD0110450025:180:10
L. HutsonD011102-2224:143:37
N. DobsonD0112030220:132:27
A. XhekajD011242-1713:050:00
A. CarrierD0000140223:350:09
A. EngstromD0002010014:230:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Fowler47425.89463:30OT loss
J. Dobes000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele16:49G. Vilardi16:23K. Connor16:01
Line 2D. Mercer15:35C. Perfetti13:42A. Lowry12:52
Line 3M. Barron12:15V. Björck8:04A. Iafallo7:46
Line 4N. Niederreiter4:55C. Koepke5:50
Pair 1D. Samberg13:50N. Pionk14:40
Pair 2M. Ferraro14:53E. Salomonsson12:23
Pair 3D. DeMelo14:14T. Bauer10:39

MTL

Line 1J. Anderson12:28J. Evans12:21C. Kreider10:56
Line 2C. Caufield10:58J. Slafkovský11:37A. Newhook11:24
Line 3P. Danault11:57A. Texier10:44Z. Bolduc9:45
Line 4O. Kapanen8:39O. Beck9:27F. Xhekaj8:54
Pair 1A. Carrier15:43K. Guhle16:49
Pair 2N. Dobson14:52L. Hutson17:02
Pair 3A. Xhekaj11:53A. Engstrom12:11

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

13 of 25 overs hit (52%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
MTL C. Caufield3.5+128-1504Over
WPG K. Connor3.5+125-1528Over
WPG C. Perfetti2.5+130-1456Over
MTL J. Slafkovský2.5+122-1401Under
MTL N. Dobson2.5+155-1802Under
WPG N. Pionk2.5+150-1853Over
WPG A. Iafallo1.5+150–1Under
WPG A. Lowry1.5+165–3Over
MTL A. Newhook1.5-137+1151Under
MTL A. Texier1.5+138-1402Over
MTL C. Kreider1.5+170–0Under
WPG D. Mercer1.5-110–2Over
WPG D. Samberg1.5+190–1Under
WPG E. Salomonsson1.5+150–4Over
WPG G. Vilardi1.5-135+1103Over
MTL J. Anderson1.5-115-1132Over
MTL J. Evans1.5+185–0Under
MTL K. Guhle1.5+140-1400Under
MTL L. Hutson1.5-105-1051Under
WPG M. Barron1.5+150–6Over
WPG M. Scheifele1.5-174+1353Over
MTL O. Kapanen1.5+120–1Under
MTL P. Danault1.5+125-1400Under
WPG V. Björck1.5+185–2Over
MTL Z. Bolduc1.5-125-1050Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreWPG 2.9, MTL 3.4WPG 5, MTL 4
Total goals6.39
Shots on goalWPG 26.6, MTL 27.1WPG 47, MTL 22
Win chanceMTL 59%WPG won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
WPG K. Connor3.280.99236%2
MTL C. Caufield2.940.98237%2
WPG C. Perfetti2.260.61024%0
WPG M. Scheifele2.130.99232%0
MTL J. Slafkovský2.110.80226%0
MTL N. Dobson2.020.59113%0
WPG N. Pionk2.030.48010%0
WPG G. Vilardi1.830.70128%0
WPG D. Mercer1.720.43019%0
MTL A. Newhook1.610.61024%0
MTL J. Anderson1.620.43120%1
MTL L. Hutson1.510.94113%0
MTL Z. Bolduc1.500.53020%0
MTL P. Danault1.400.54016%0
WPG M. Barron1.460.30214%1
MTL C. Kreider1.400.54122%0
MTL A. Texier1.320.45016%0
WPG A. Iafallo1.310.30013%0
WPG D. Samberg1.310.2515%1
WPG E. Salomonsson1.340.2006%0
MTL K. Guhle1.200.4118%0
WPG N. Niederreiter1.200.27014%0
MTL J. Evans1.100.47015%0
WPG C. Koepke1.110.20110%0
WPG A. Lowry1.130.34115%0
MTL O. Kapanen1.110.34015%0
WPG M. Ferraro1.010.1904%0
WPG V. Björck0.920.20010%0
MTL A. Carrier0.900.4007%0
WPG H. Fleury0.900.1604%0
MTL F. Xhekaj0.830.2017%0
MTL O. Beck0.810.1818%1
WPG D. DeMelo0.810.1923%0
MTL A. Engstrom0.820.1405%0
MTL A. Xhekaj0.720.1214%0
WPG T. Bauer0.520.0521%1

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.