NSH beat WPG 4-1, with the chances close: 2.63 expected goals to 2.88. NSH outshot WPG 36 to 24. R. Josi led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Marchessault had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. J. Saros stopped 23 of 24.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WPG 2.88 xGNSH 2.63 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lowry | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:15 | 0:00 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 | 0:00 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:33 | 2:08 |
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:22 | 3:25 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 6 | 20:12 | 3:32 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:12 | 3:22 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:30 | 3:30 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:47 | 2:19 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:34 | 2:06 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:42 | 1:56 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:33 | 0:00 |
| R. Kupari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:08 | 0:00 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 2 | 28:23 | 3:53 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:07 | 0:05 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:07 | 1:57 |
| H. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:59 | 0:00 |
| C. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:00 | 0:02 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:07 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Comrie | 35 | 32 | 3 | .914 | 58:56 | Loss |
| C. Hellebuyck | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Marchessault | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:10 | 3:49 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:35 | 3:14 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:23 | 2:58 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:33 | 4:02 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:00 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:46 | 1:53 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:51 | 0:00 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 14:55 | 0:00 |
| T. Novak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:29 | 2:10 |
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:10 | 0:00 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:34 | 1:20 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:27 | 2:25 |
| R. Josi | D | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 25:52 | 3:39 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:05 | 1:55 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:27 | 0:20 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:28 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 14:24 | 0:00 |
| M. Del Gaizo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:55 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 24 | 23 | 1 | .958 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Wedgewood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WPG 2.9, NSH 3.0 | WPG 1, NSH 4 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | WPG 28.6, NSH 31.6 | WPG 24, NSH 36 |
| Win chance | NSH 51% | NSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.6 | 3 | 0.93 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| NSH R. Josi | 3.1 | 3 | 0.84 | 2 | 18% | 2 |
| WPG K. Connor | 3.1 | 3 | 0.84 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 3.0 | 6 | 0.71 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.8 | 3 | 0.84 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| WPG N. Ehlers | 2.7 | 4 | 0.73 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.1 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 2.1 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 2.0 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.0 | 3 | 0.74 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.0 | 1 | 0.82 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.9 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.9 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.8 | 3 | 0.63 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| NSH G. Nyquist | 1.6 | 1 | 0.70 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.5 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NSH T. Novak | 1.5 | 4 | 0.50 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WPG M. Appleton | 1.4 | 3 | 0.34 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| NSH M. Jankowski | 1.2 | 3 | 0.30 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH M. Gaizo | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.2 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH J. Lauzon | 1.2 | 3 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH L. Schenn | 1.2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH A. Carrier | 1.1 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH Z. L'Heureux | 1.1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG C. Miller | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG H. Fleury | 1.0 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG R. Kupari | 1.0 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.