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Game Recap
WPG1
NSH2
NSH beat WPG 2-1, with the chances close: 3.28 expected goals to 3.46. NSH outshot WPG 31 to 23. K. Connor had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.4. J. Saros stopped 22 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| NSH | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 4:26NSHF. Forsberg0.01 xG
- 1st 11:05WPGN. Pionk0.01 xG
- 1st 15:29NSHT. NovakPP0.17 xG
Team Stats
WPGNSH
23Shots on goal31
3.46Expected goals3.28
63Shot attempts53
185v5 shots on goal23
0/4Power play1/3
24Hits26
10Blocked shots17
6Penalty minutes8
11Giveaways14
5Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WPG 3.46 xGNSH 3.28 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Kupari | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:55 | 0:00 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 7:32 | 1:42 |
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:57 | 4:39 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:44 | 4:22 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:12 | 4:24 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:57 | 3:35 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:35 | 1:44 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:13 | 2:03 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 14:20 | 0:12 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:50 | 1:43 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:48 | 0:00 |
| D. Gustafsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:37 | 0:00 |
| N. Pionk | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21:26 | 1:29 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27:44 | 4:37 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:05 | 0:00 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:51 | 0:00 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:44 | 0:00 |
| H. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:33 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Comrie | 31 | 29 | 2 | .935 | 57:26 | Loss |
| C. Hellebuyck | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:32 | 4:28 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 19:58 | 2:44 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 19:40 | 4:04 |
| T. Novak | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:57 | 1:22 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:50 | 0:58 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:11 | 4:36 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:37 | 4:23 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:49 | 0:05 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:26 | 0:08 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:11 | 0:00 |
| K. Bellows | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:04 | 0:00 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:36 | 0:55 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:32 | 1:07 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:40 | 2:39 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:04 | 0:06 |
| M. Del Gaizo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:06 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:50 | 0:00 |
| A. Englund | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 23 | 22 | 1 | .957 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WPG 2.9, NSH 2.7 | WPG 1, NSH 2 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | WPG 27.6, NSH 29.0 | WPG 23, NSH 31 |
| Win chance | WPG 54% | NSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.5 | 4 | 0.88 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| WPG K. Connor | 3.4 | 7 | 1.03 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 3.0 | 1 | 0.76 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| WPG N. Ehlers | 2.6 | 4 | 0.81 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.5 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.2 | 0 | 0.93 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.1 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.1 | 4 | 0.76 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 2.0 | 1 | 0.74 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 1.9 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.9 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.9 | 5 | 0.61 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.8 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.8 | 3 | 0.50 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| NSH T. Novak | 1.6 | 3 | 0.45 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.6 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.5 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG M. Appleton | 1.5 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH G. Nyquist | 1.5 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.4 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH J. Barron | 1.3 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH M. Gaizo | 1.2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NSH L. Schenn | 1.2 | 3 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG H. Fleury | 1.1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.0 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG R. Kupari | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH K. Bellows | 0.9 | 3 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WPG D. Gustafsson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NSH A. Englund | 0.5 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.