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Game Recap
WPG5
NSH2
WPG beat NSH 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.74 expected goals to 2.11. D. Samberg led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). N. Blankenburg had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. E. Comrie stopped 21 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| NSH | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 0:47WPGG. Vilardi0.45 xG
- 1st 19:06WPGN. Niederreiter0.04 xG
- 2nd 12:18WPGC. Perfetti0.22 xG
- 2nd 17:02NSHN. BlankenburgPP0.06 xG
- 3rd 2:45NSHL. Evangelista0.08 xG
- 3rd 9:37WPGK. Connor0.02 xG
- 3rd 19:39WPGN. NiederreiterEN0.86 xG
Team Stats
WPGNSH
27Shots on goal23
4.74Expected goals2.11
48Shot attempts53
245v5 shots on goal17
0/4Power play1/4
27Hits19
14Blocked shots8
15Penalty minutes15
14Giveaways14
5Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WPG 4.74 xGNSH 2.11 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:30 | 3:17 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 16:01 | 3:29 |
| K. Connor | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:42 | 3:31 |
| J. Toews | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:41 | 3:39 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:56 | 3:26 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:50 | 3:01 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:22 | 2:52 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:49 | 0:00 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:59 | 0:00 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:20 | 3:15 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:35 | 0:00 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:29 | 0:00 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 21:51 | 0:34 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 22:55 | 3:35 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 19:46 | 0:00 |
| C. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:40 | 3:11 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13:20 | 0:00 |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:51 | 2:18 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:01 | 2:33 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 2 | 21:26 | 2:35 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:33 | 2:45 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 18:12 | 2:43 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:29 | 2:25 |
| M. Wood | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:45 | 2:31 |
| O. Wiesblatt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:22 | 0:00 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 11:25 | 0:00 |
| R. Schaefer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:46 | 0:00 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 8:40 | 0:00 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8:32 | 0:00 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 27:12 | 3:08 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:11 | 2:06 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:18 | 0:17 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:51 | 2:53 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 17:08 | 0:06 |
| S. Stastney | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Annunen | 26 | 22 | 4 | .846 | 56:28 | Loss |
| J. Saros | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
WPG
Line 1M. Scheifele11:44K. Connor12:41G. Vilardi11:39
Line 2N. Niederreiter12:20A. Lowry12:33A. Iafallo11:47
Line 3J. Toews11:21C. Perfetti11:36V. Namestnikov10:17
Line 4G. Nyquist8:31T. Pearson7:34M. Barron7:29
Pair 1L. Schenn14:27D. Samberg16:25
Pair 2D. DeMelo14:47J. Morrissey15:24
Pair 3C. Miller13:02L. Stanley12:23
NSH
Line 1S. Stamkos12:56R. O'Reilly13:19L. Evangelista11:35
Line 2E. Haula12:01F. Forsberg14:10M. Wood10:15
Line 3F. Svechkov9:26R. Schaefer8:46T. Jost8:40
Line 4M. Bunting11:53O. Wiesblatt9:39M. McCarron6:48
Pair 3N. Blankenburg13:37S. Stastney11:43
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WPG 3.0, NSH 2.7 | WPG 5, NSH 2 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | WPG 25.6, NSH 28.3 | WPG 27, NSH 23 |
| Win chance | WPG 56% | WPG won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.2 | 3 | 1.15 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.1 | 1 | 0.78 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| NSH R. Josi | 2.7 | 2 | 0.75 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 2.4 | 1 | 0.56 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.2 | 3 | 1.08 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 2.0 | 2 | 0.79 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.0 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 1.9 | 0 | 0.83 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.8 | 1 | 0.59 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 1.8 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.8 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NSH M. Bunting | 1.8 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NSH M. Wood | 1.6 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH E. Haula | 1.6 | 1 | 0.41 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.6 | 4 | 0.44 | 2 | 19% | 2 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.4 | 4 | 0.36 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| WPG J. Toews | 1.4 | 3 | 0.45 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.3 | 0 | 0.27 | 3 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.3 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.3 | 3 | 0.31 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH N. Perbix | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.2 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.2 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH N. Hague | 1.2 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH T. Jost | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WPG C. Miller | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WPG T. Pearson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG G. Nyquist | 1.0 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH O. Wiesblatt | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 0.9 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG L. Schenn | 0.8 | 1 | 0.12 | 2 | 3% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stastney | 0.7 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.