Game Recap: WPG 2, NYI 3, March 4, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

WPG2

FinalTue, Mar 4, 2025Every game that night

NYI3

NYI beat WPG 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 1.82 expected goals to 2.67. J. Morrissey led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. Ehlers had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. I. Sorokin stopped 26 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	0	1	1	2
NYI	1	1	1	3

1st 16:49NYIK. PalmieriPP0.10 xG
2nd 1:33NYIB. Nelson0.20 xG
2nd 8:48WPGJ. MorrisseyPP0.07 xG
3rd 4:03NYIR. Pulock0.01 xG
3rd 12:51WPGN. EhlersPP0.15 xG

Team Stats

WPGNYI

28Shots on goal29

2.67Expected goals1.82

75Shot attempts52

195v5 shots on goal28

2/3Power play1/2

16Hits34

8Blocked shots26

9Penalty minutes11

13Giveaways9

8Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 2.67 xGNYI 1.82 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG28 on goal, 2 scored

NYI27 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Connor	LW	0	2	2	4	0	0	-1	0	21:23	4:00
M. Scheifele	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	21:55	4:00
N. Ehlers	LW	1	0	1	7	0	0	0	0	18:08	4:00
G. Vilardi	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	19:53	4:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	18:15	0:20
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	16:49	0:00
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	15:04	0:20
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	5	14:45	0:00
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:47	0:20
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	8:50	0:00
R. Kupari	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	7:34	0:00
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	6:50	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	1	1	2	4	1	1	-1	0	25:45	4:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	22:26	0:20
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	21:48	0:20
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	18:14	0:00
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:57	0:00
C. Miller	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	29	26	3	.897	58:26	Loss
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Nelson	C	1	1	2	1	1	2	+1	0	20:14	2:02
K. Palmieri	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	18:47	2:02
B. Horvat	C	0	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	17:22	2:02
C. Cizikas	C	0	1	1	1	4	2	+1	0	16:19	0:21
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	14:34	0:00
A. Lee	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	7	13:21	0:21
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	18:53	2:02
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	+1	2	18:47	0:21
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:45	0:00
H. Fasching	RW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	8:48	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:05	0:00
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	8:03	0:00
N. Dobson	D	0	1	1	3	3	3	+1	0	20:45	2:02
R. Pulock	D	1	0	1	2	2	4	+1	2	17:47	0:21
A. Romanov	D	0	0	0	2	3	7	0	0	23:51	0:00
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	5	4	0	+1	0	21:35	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	19:33	0:21
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	14:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	28	26	2	.929	59:25	Win
J. Skarek	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 3.0, NYI 2.4	WPG 2, NYI 3
Total goals	5.5	5
Shots on goal	WPG 28.0, NYI 27.8	WPG 28, NYI 29
Win chance	WPG 60%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.5	4	1.11	2	39%	0
NYI B. Horvat	2.8	2	0.62	1	29%	0
WPG N. Ehlers	2.7	7	0.85	1	27%	1
NYI B. Nelson	2.7	1	0.70	2	31%	1
NYI A. Lee	2.5	1	0.50	1	24%	0
NYI N. Dobson	2.4	3	0.47	1	9%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.3	4	0.81	2	13%	1
WPG M. Scheifele	2.2	0	1.01	1	36%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	2.2	3	0.47	0	9%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	2.1	1	0.83	0	33%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.0	2	0.53	1	23%	1
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.8	0	0.44	0	21%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.8	1	0.50	0	8%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.8	0	0.57	0	19%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.6	5	0.27	0	4%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.5	2	0.28	0	5%	0
WPG M. Appleton	1.5	3	0.34	0	13%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.5	1	0.39	0	19%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.5	2	0.39	0	15%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.4	2	0.51	0	17%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.4	2	0.45	0	20%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.3	1	0.41	0	16%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.2	2	0.22	1	5%	1
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.2	1	0.31	1	11%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.1	1	0.21	1	9%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.1	0	0.19	0	10%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.1	1	0.21	0	4%	0
WPG H. Fleury	1.0	1	0.15	0	2%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.0	0	0.26	0	11%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.0	1	0.32	0	5%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	0.9	0	0.21	0	11%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.9	0	0.17	0	3%	0
WPG R. Kupari	0.9	2	0.17	0	7%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.8	0	0.16	0	8%	0
NYI H. Fasching	0.8	1	0.18	0	8%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.7	0	0.12	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.