Game Recap: WPG 5, NYI 2, October 13, 2025

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Game Recap

WPG5

FinalMon, Oct 13, 2025Every game that night

NYI2

WPG beat NYI 5-2, with the chances close: 3.19 expected goals to 3.21. NYI outshot WPG 35 to 26. N. Niederreiter led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). E. Comrie stopped 33 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	2	2	1	5
NYI	0	2	0	2

1st 7:35WPGM. Barron0.19 xG
1st 11:48WPGN. NiederreiterPP0.16 xG
2nd 2:05NYIJ. Pageau0.11 xG
2nd 2:19WPGL. Stanley0.02 xG
2nd 12:39WPGT. Pearson0.26 xG
2nd 14:45NYIE. Heineman0.04 xG
3rd 17:35WPGM. ScheifeleEN0.88 xG

Team Stats

WPGNYI

26Shots on goal35

3.19Expected goals3.21

47Shot attempts82

135v5 shots on goal27

1/3Power play0/5

16Hits14

24Blocked shots13

8Penalty minutes6

13Giveaways12

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 3.19 xGNYI 3.21 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG26 on goal, 5 scored

NYI35 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Barron	C	1	1	2	2	2	0	+2	0	15:42	0:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	1	1	2	3	0	1	0	0	13:41	3:34
T. Pearson	LW	1	1	2	2	0	1	+3	0	11:39	0:00
K. Connor	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	20:28	2:23
J. Toews	C	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	19:51	3:36
M. Scheifele	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	2	17:30	2:25
G. Nyquist	RW	0	1	1	2	1	3	-1	0	12:52	3:36
C. Koepke	LW	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	2	2:50	0:00
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	16:53	2:21
G. Vilardi	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	16:52	2:23
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	16:24	3:32
N. Chibrikov	RW	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	10:21	0:00
L. Stanley	D	1	1	2	1	3	1	+1	2	18:22	0:00
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	+3	0	24:18	3:36
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+2	0	22:01	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	22:00	2:24
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	17:23	0:00
C. Miller	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	10:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Comrie	35	33	2	.943	59:56	Win
C. Hellebuyck	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Drouin	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	20:04	7:53
J. Pageau	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	13:38	0:25
E. Heineman	LW	1	0	1	3	4	1	+1	0	12:11	1:44
B. Horvat	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	24:24	7:36
M. Barzal	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	24:15	8:06
K. Palmieri	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	19:32	6:50
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	2	15:53	3:11
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:09	1:43
M. Shabanov	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	12:47	1:51
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	2	10:50	0:00
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	10:50	0:00
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	6:43	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	0	1	1	4	1	1	-1	0	26:35	6:50
T. DeAngelo	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	0	17:46	3:04
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	2	16:41	0:04
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:17	0:06
A. Romanov	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	16:05	0:26
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	16:04	0:11

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	25	21	4	.840	58:18	Loss
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1K. Connor14:10M. Scheifele13:11G. Vilardi14:11

Line 2J. Toews14:21A. Iafallo9:54N. Chibrikov10:17

Line 3N. Niederreiter10:07V. Namestnikov9:22G. Nyquist9:16

Line 4T. Pearson10:03M. Barron9:05C. Koepke2:00

Pair 1L. Stanley17:20N. Pionk13:30

Pair 2J. Morrissey15:28D. DeMelo14:54

Pair 3L. Schenn13:14C. Miller10:57

NYI

Line 1A. Duclair13:26M. Barzal14:27K. Palmieri9:54

Line 2A. Lee10:56M. Shabanov10:52J. Pageau9:59

Line 3J. Drouin10:29B. Horvat10:27E. Heineman10:27

Line 4C. Cizikas9:42S. Holmstrom9:14M. Tsyplakov6:43

Pair 1S. Mayfield15:27M. Schaefer16:17

Pair 2A. Romanov14:57T. DeAngelo14:23

Pair 3A. Pelech11:42R. Pulock11:58

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 3.1, NYI 2.7	WPG 5, NYI 2
Total goals	5.7	7
Shots on goal	WPG 27.6, NYI 28.5	WPG 26, NYI 35
Win chance	WPG 56%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.4	1	1.10	1	37%	0
NYI B. Horvat	3.0	4	0.71	0	30%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.7	3	0.85	0	23%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.5	1	0.51	0	24%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.4	3	0.64	0	27%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	2.3	2	0.56	1	11%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.2	4	0.98	1	33%	1
WPG G. Vilardi	2.1	3	0.78	0	29%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.0	1	0.71	0	12%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.9	3	0.43	2	20%	1
WPG N. Pionk	1.8	3	0.47	0	8%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.6	1	0.51	1	18%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.5	0	0.39	0	16%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.4	1	0.38	0	20%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.4	2	0.25	0	5%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.4	1	0.34	0	11%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.3	3	0.25	0	3%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.3	1	0.25	0	5%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.3	0	0.47	0	15%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.2	2	0.40	1	14%	1
WPG M. Barron	1.2	2	0.24	2	10%	1
NYI R. Pulock	1.2	0	0.28	0	6%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.2	0	0.22	0	10%	0
WPG T. Pearson	1.2	2	0.25	2	10%	1
WPG C. Koepke	1.2	0	0.21	1	11%	0
WPG N. Chibrikov	1.1	1	0.34	0	14%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.1	0	0.32	0	4%	0
NYI J. Drouin	1.1	3	0.49	1	13%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.1	0	0.39	0	17%	0
WPG G. Nyquist	1.0	2	0.39	1	13%	0
WPG L. Schenn	1.0	1	0.13	0	3%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.9	1	0.18	0	4%	0
NYI E. Heineman	0.9	3	0.21	1	12%	1
WPG L. Stanley	0.7	1	0.17	2	2%	1

Shots on goal: 18 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.