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Game Recap
WPG6
NYR3
WPG beat NYR 6-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.35 expected goals to 4.65. K. Connor led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). K. Connor had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. C. Hellebuyck stopped 33 of 36.
Team Stats
WPGNYR
33Shots on goal36
2.35Expected goals4.65
51Shot attempts67
295v5 shots on goal26
1/2Power play1/4
13Hits21
12Blocked shots12
6Penalty minutes4
23Giveaways16
3Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WPG 2.35 xGNYR 4.65 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Connor | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 2 | 20:59 | 3:03 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 20:02 | 3:07 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:45 | 3:05 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 17:30 | 3:03 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:40 | 0:24 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:09 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:03 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:54 | 0:32 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:36 | 0:35 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 11:46 | 0:22 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:51 | 0:00 |
| R. Kupari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:41 | 0:00 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:25 | 0:59 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:57 | 0:00 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 22:38 | 0:09 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 21:55 | 2:39 |
| H. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:00 |
| C. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:55 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 36 | 33 | 3 | .917 | 59:59 | Win |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Cuylle | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 11:31 | 0:00 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 23:09 | 5:52 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 18:53 | 2:24 |
| F. Chytil | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:40 | 1:28 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:47 | 1:21 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 24:55 | 5:13 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:26 | 5:53 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 20:20 | 5:31 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:34 | 1:27 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Vesey | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:22 | 0:00 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:56 | 0:00 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 13:22 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 25:28 | 5:57 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 19:19 | 0:00 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 17:36 | 0:03 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:22 | 0:00 |
| Z. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:00 | 1:21 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 32 | 27 | 5 | .844 | 58:14 | Loss |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WPG 3.1, NYR 3.1 | WPG 6, NYR 3 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | WPG 31.1, NYR 30.8 | WPG 33, NYR 36 |
| Win chance | NYR 51% | WPG won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.2 | 7 | 0.82 | 3 | 32% | 2 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 2.9 | 5 | 1.03 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| WPG N. Ehlers | 2.7 | 1 | 0.68 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 2.5 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.5 | 3 | 0.77 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.3 | 3 | 0.77 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 2.3 | 3 | 0.65 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.2 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| NYR F. Chytil | 2.1 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 2.1 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.1 | 3 | 0.81 | 2 | 29% | 2 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.0 | 3 | 0.67 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR R. Smith | 1.9 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.9 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYR J. Trouba | 1.7 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.7 | 4 | 0.33 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.6 | 2 | 0.69 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.6 | 0 | 0.39 | 3 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG M. Appleton | 1.5 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR K. Kakko | 1.4 | 3 | 0.32 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.3 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.2 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.2 | 4 | 0.40 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.2 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.2 | 2 | 0.20 | 2 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR Z. Jones | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG H. Fleury | 1.1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR J. Vesey | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG C. Miller | 1.1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 1.0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR R. Lindgren | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG R. Kupari | 0.9 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.