Game Recap: WPG 3, NYR 2 (SO), March 22, 2026

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Game Recap

WPG3

Final/SOSun, Mar 22, 2026Every game that night

NYR2

WPG beat NYR 3-2 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 3.56 expected goals to 2.64. WPG outshot NYR 37 to 29. G. Vilardi led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. Pionk had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. E. Comrie stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
WPG	1	1	0	1	3
NYR	0	2	0	0	2

1st 13:06WPGA. Lowry0.19 xG
2nd 0:41NYRT. Kartye0.22 xG
2nd 6:43WPGG. VilardiPP0.25 xG
2nd 14:03NYRM. ZibanejadPP0.10 xG

Team Stats

WPGNYR

37Shots on goal29

3.56Expected goals2.64

67Shot attempts58

265v5 shots on goal18

1/4Power play1/3

19Hits31

9Blocked shots12

6Penalty minutes8

11Giveaways19

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 3.56 xGNYR 2.64 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG37 on goal, 2 scored

NYR29 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
G. Vilardi	C	1	1	2	2	1	1	0	0	17:19	2:30
K. Connor	LW	0	1	1	4	0	2	0	0	24:46	3:19
C. Perfetti	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	2	17:43	2:29
A. Lowry	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	17:06	0:01
M. Scheifele	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	2	24:40	3:19
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	18:22	0:24
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	13:46	0:00
B. Lambert	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	13:04	2:30
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	11:12	0:00
J. Toews	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:05	2:39
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:30	2:12
I. Rosen	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:10	2:13
J. Morrissey	D	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	26:47	3:08
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	5	1	0	+1	0	25:27	2:49
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	23:05	0:00
E. Salomonsson	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	19:38	0:00
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	18:14	0:00
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	10:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Comrie	29	27	2	.931	64:37	Win
C. Hellebuyck	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Miller	C	0	2	2	2	1	1	0	0	20:21	4:41
M. Zibanejad	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	23:29	4:48
T. Kartye	LW	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	2	13:18	0:00
V. Trocheck	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	24:31	4:47
G. Perreault	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	19:58	0:26
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	19:43	2:39
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	17:51	0:20
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	17:30	0:28
C. Sheary	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:16	0:19
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	7:12	0:00
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	6:04	0:00
J. Chmelar	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	6:03	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	-1	0	23:19	4:45
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	1	5	3	+1	0	24:38	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	24:17	0:22
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	2	23:16	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	14:32	0:00
C. Mackey	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Garand	37	35	2	.946	65:00	OT loss
I. Shesterkin	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele19:02K. Connor18:15A. Iafallo17:36

Line 2G. Vilardi14:26C. Perfetti14:16A. Lowry13:00

Line 3M. Barron11:53B. Lambert10:34I. Rosen7:57

Line 4J. Toews8:26C. Koepke10:13G. Nyquist8:18

Pair 1J. Morrissey22:06N. Pionk19:44

Pair 2D. Samberg18:48E. Salomonsson18:14

Pair 3D. DeMelo14:09H. Fleury10:43

NYR

Line 1V. Trocheck17:10T. Raddysh17:15W. Cuylle15:49

Line 2M. Zibanejad15:33G. Perreault17:42A. Lafrenière15:26

Line 3J. Miller12:02C. Sheary12:27T. Kartye12:08

Line 4J. Brodzinski6:04A. Edstrom7:12J. Chmelar6:03

Pair 1M. Robertson22:04B. Schneider21:20

Pair 2V. Gavrikov18:10A. Fox17:06

Pair 3W. Borgen11:39C. Mackey12:30

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 2.8, NYR 2.9	WPG 3, NYR 2
Total goals	5.7	5
Shots on goal	WPG 26.9, NYR 25.2	WPG 37, NYR 29
Win chance	NYR 51%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.3	4	1.13	1	37%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.4	4	0.94	1	29%	1
WPG C. Perfetti	2.4	1	0.63	1	21%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.2	3	1.12	0	35%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.2	1	0.78	0	27%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.1	4	0.71	1	14%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.0	2	0.96	2	28%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.0	3	0.85	0	25%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.9	1	0.93	1	15%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	1.8	2	0.73	2	28%	1
WPG N. Pionk	1.8	5	0.37	0	7%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.7	3	0.47	0	20%	0
NYR G. Perreault	1.6	1	0.56	0	18%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.5	2	0.42	0	10%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.5	1	0.33	0	13%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.4	3	0.37	0	16%	0
WPG E. Salomonsson	1.4	1	0.20	0	5%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.4	2	0.26	0	4%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.4	1	0.29	0	7%	0
NYR M. Robertson	1.3	2	0.27	0	7%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.3	1	0.40	1	16%	1
WPG J. Toews	1.2	1	0.36	0	13%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.2	1	0.32	0	12%	0
NYR C. Mackey	1.2	1	0.25	0	7%	0
NYR T. Kartye	1.1	2	0.35	1	14%	1
WPG G. Nyquist	1.1	1	0.36	0	12%	0
WPG I. Rosen	1.1	0	0.28	0	11%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.1	2	0.23	0	6%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.1	2	0.27	0	11%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.0	3	0.21	0	9%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.0	3	0.23	0	4%	0
WPG B. Lambert	0.9	2	0.38	0	11%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.9	0	0.19	0	10%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	0.9	1	0.28	0	11%	0
WPG H. Fleury	0.8	0	0.12	0	2%	0
NYR J. Chmelar	0.7	0	0.17	0	10%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.