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Game Recap
WPG3
SEA2
WPG beat SEA 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.70 expected goals to 2.93. D. Samberg led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Samberg had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. E. Comrie stopped 14 of 15.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| SEA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 9:58SEAJ. NymanPP0.16 xG
- 1st 15:23SEAM. Eyssimont0.11 xG
- 1st 19:43WPGC. Perfetti0.02 xG
- 2nd 11:42WPGK. Connor0.13 xG
- OT 1:47WPGD. Samberg0.24 xG
Team Stats
WPGSEA
26Shots on goal21
2.70Expected goals2.93
67Shot attempts46
225v5 shots on goal14
0/2Power play1/2
37Hits21
9Blocked shots17
6Penalty minutes6
16Giveaways14
3Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WPG 2.70 xGSEA 2.93 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:42 | 1:53 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 15:50 | 1:58 |
| K. Connor | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:20 | 1:59 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 8:09 | 0:00 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:10 | 2:08 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:56 | 2:07 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:03 | 1:53 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:48 | 1:49 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:13 | 0:00 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:05 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:22 | 1:35 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:19 | 0:03 |
| D. Samberg | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 22:49 | 0:11 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 28:59 | 2:11 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 24:18 | 0:19 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:53 | 0:00 |
| C. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:56 | 1:49 |
| H. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:04 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Comrie | 15 | 14 | 1 | .933 | 51:34 | Win |
| C. Hellebuyck | 6 | 5 | 1 | .833 | 10:10 |
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:55 | 1:15 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:34 | 1:17 |
| J. Nyman | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:19 | 1:15 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:25 | 0:00 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21:32 | 1:14 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:53 | 2:15 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:26 | 2:13 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:58 | 2:16 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:19 | 0:00 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:21 | 2:15 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:15 | 0:00 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8:57 | 0:00 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 25:03 | 1:18 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:30 | 0:00 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23:05 | 2:12 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22:13 | 0:00 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:27 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 26 | 23 | 3 | .885 | 61:47 | OT loss |
| P. Grubauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WPG 3.2, SEA 2.7 | WPG 3, SEA 2 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | WPG 27.3, SEA 27.2 | WPG 26, SEA 21 |
| Win chance | WPG 58% | WPG won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 2.9 | 3 | 1.08 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.6 | 3 | 0.46 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG N. Ehlers | 2.4 | 2 | 0.82 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.2 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 2.1 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.1 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.0 | 2 | 0.76 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 1.9 | 1 | 0.96 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.8 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 1.8 | 1 | 0.82 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 1.7 | 0 | 0.53 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.7 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.7 | 4 | 0.49 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.6 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.4 | 4 | 0.51 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| SEA M. Eyssimont | 1.4 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.4 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG M. Appleton | 1.4 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.4 | 5 | 0.30 | 2 | 6% | 1 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.3 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.1 | 0 | 0.43 | 2 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.1 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WPG L. Schenn | 1.1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.63 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.1 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.1 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG C. Miller | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 1.0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| WPG H. Fleury | 0.9 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG B. Tanev | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 0.9 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 0.7 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 0.7 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.