Game Recap: WPG 3, SEA 5, November 13, 2025

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Game Recap

WPG3

FinalThu, Nov 13, 2025Every game that night

SEA5

SEA beat WPG 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.09 expected goals to 2.21. WPG outshot SEA 26 to 18. V. Dunn led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). P. Grubauer stopped 23 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	1	2	0	3
SEA	1	1	3	5

1st 10:17WPGA. Iafallo0.31 xG
1st 15:15SEAK. Kakko0.03 xG
2nd 3:18WPGM. Scheifele0.19 xG
2nd 7:27SEAV. Dunn0.31 xG
2nd 18:50WPGK. ConnorPP0.10 xG
3rd 4:11SEAE. TolvanenPP0.05 xG
3rd 7:21SEAJ. Eberle0.10 xG
3rd 18:25SEAJ. EberleEN0.92 xG

Team Stats

WPGSEA

26Shots on goal18

2.21Expected goals3.09

52Shot attempts46

225v5 shots on goal14

1/3Power play1/3

20Hits14

13Blocked shots12

4Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways7

5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 2.21 xGSEA 3.09 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG26 on goal, 3 scored

SEA17 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	-2	0	21:17	3:39
K. Connor	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	-3	0	22:04	3:39
A. Iafallo	LW	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	15:31	0:00
A. Lowry	C	0	1	1	0	4	2	+1	0	14:17	0:00
G. Vilardi	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-3	0	18:59	3:39
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	17:59	3:08
J. Toews	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:25	0:32
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:46	0:01
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	2	13:09	0:00
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	9:38	0:00
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	8:59	0:01
P. Ford	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	7:59	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	-3	0	25:17	3:39
N. Pionk	D	0	1	1	2	2	3	0	0	23:38	0:31
D. DeMelo	D	0	1	1	1	4	0	-2	0	18:04	0:00
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	+1	0	23:04	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	13:49	0:01
C. Miller	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	13:17	0:01

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	17	13	4	.765	58:04	Loss
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Beniers	C	0	2	2	0	0	2	+2	0	24:07	3:47
J. Eberle	RW	2	0	2	3	0	2	+2	0	20:33	3:52
M. Marchment	LW	0	2	2	0	1	0	+2	0	18:11	1:29
J. Schwartz	LW	0	1	1	2	0	2	+2	0	17:38	2:21
C. Stephenson	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	17:10	2:52
E. Tolvanen	RW	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	15:46	3:26
R. Winterton	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	0	11:06	0:00
K. Kakko	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	3:51	0:00
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:37	1:50
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	-2	0	13:56	0:00
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:13	1:24
B. Meyers	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	11:50	0:00
V. Dunn	D	1	2	3	1	1	2	0	2	21:06	2:57
A. Larsson	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	22:42	0:00
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	19:35	2:22
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	18:12	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+2	0	17:58	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	15:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Grubauer	26	23	3	.885	60:00	Win
M. Murray	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele16:17K. Connor15:27G. Vilardi13:59

Line 2V. Namestnikov12:44C. Perfetti14:01J. Toews13:50

Line 3N. Niederreiter13:00A. Iafallo12:13A. Lowry12:33

Line 4G. Nyquist8:54T. Pearson7:32P. Ford6:36

Pair 1D. DeMelo16:57J. Morrissey19:24

Pair 2D. Samberg18:31N. Pionk17:28

Pair 3C. Miller12:44L. Stanley13:20

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle15:29M. Beniers18:22M. Marchment15:51

Line 2J. Schwartz13:02C. Stephenson12:20E. Tolvanen12:16

Line 3B. Meyers10:42T. Kartye12:36R. Winterton9:45

Line 4B. Catton10:44S. Wright12:13

Pair 1A. Larsson19:23V. Dunn18:09

Pair 2B. Montour16:39R. Lindgren14:35

Pair 3R. Evans15:57J. Oleksiak13:36

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 3.1, SEA 2.7	WPG 3, SEA 5
Total goals	5.7	8
Shots on goal	WPG 26.7, SEA 26.2	WPG 26, SEA 18
Win chance	WPG 57%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.3	2	1.07	1	36%	1
SEA B. Montour	2.5	1	0.48	0	13%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.3	3	0.65	2	23%	2
SEA V. Dunn	2.2	1	0.62	3	12%	1
WPG M. Scheifele	2.2	2	1.00	2	34%	1
WPG G. Vilardi	2.2	3	0.78	0	30%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.1	2	0.51	1	22%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	1.9	2	0.75	1	13%	0
SEA M. Marchment	1.9	0	0.50	2	21%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.9	2	0.60	0	21%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.8	2	0.44	1	8%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.8	0	0.56	2	22%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.6	0	0.42	0	19%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.6	1	0.43	1	19%	1
WPG A. Iafallo	1.5	2	0.39	1	16%	1
WPG D. Samberg	1.5	2	0.29	0	5%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.4	1	0.46	0	17%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.3	0	0.38	1	16%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.3	0	0.45	0	16%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.3	1	0.37	1	15%	1
SEA C. Stephenson	1.3	1	0.66	1	20%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.3	0	0.27	1	6%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.2	1	0.44	0	18%	0
WPG T. Pearson	1.1	1	0.27	0	11%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.1	1	0.15	1	9%	0
WPG L. Stanley	1.0	1	0.27	0	4%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.0	3	0.19	0	4%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.0	1	0.30	1	4%	0
SEA T. Kartye	1.0	0	0.22	0	11%	0
WPG G. Nyquist	0.9	1	0.33	0	11%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.9	0	0.27	0	5%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.8	2	0.24	0	3%	0
SEA B. Catton	0.8	0	0.19	0	7%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.8	3	0.18	0	4%	0
SEA B. Meyers	0.7	1	0.14	0	7%	0
WPG P. Ford	0.7	1	0.20	0	10%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.