Game Recap: WPG 4, SJS 3, December 17, 2024

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Game Recap

WPG4

FinalTue, Dec 17, 2024Every game that night

SJS3

WPG beat SJS 4-3, with the chances close: 2.74 expected goals to 2.35. M. Scheifele led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). K. Connor had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 3.4. C. Hellebuyck stopped 32 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	1	1	2	4
SJS	0	2	1	3

1st 12:18WPGK. Connor0.16 xG
2nd 1:52SJST. Toffoli0.13 xG
2nd 7:28WPGM. ScheifelePP0.13 xG
2nd 17:11SJSM. CelebriniPP0.03 xG
3rd 4:44SJSF. Zetterlund0.12 xG
3rd 11:56WPGK. ConnorPP0.13 xG
3rd 18:47WPGA. Lowry0.05 xG

Team Stats

WPGSJS

33Shots on goal35

2.74Expected goals2.35

61Shot attempts69

255v5 shots on goal27

2/2Power play1/3

17Hits18

13Blocked shots13

6Penalty minutes4

9Giveaways12

8Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 2.74 xGSJS 2.35 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG32 on goal, 4 scored

SJS35 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	1	2	3	2	0	1	0	0	19:39	1:37
G. Vilardi	C	0	3	3	4	0	0	0	0	17:31	1:37
K. Connor	LW	2	0	2	9	0	0	0	0	18:50	1:37
A. Lowry	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	16:51	0:00
M. Appleton	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	15:57	0:00
C. Perfetti	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	15:45	1:37
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	15:08	0:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	14:23	0:00
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:35	0:00
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	10:42	0:00
R. Kupari	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:03	0:00
N. Chibrikov	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	8:50	0:00
D. DeMelo	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+2	2	21:08	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	0	23:01	1:37
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	22:33	0:00
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	22:04	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	16:06	0:00
C. Miller	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	13:49	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	35	32	3	.914	60:00	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	1	1	2	6	1	0	0	0	18:11	4:11
T. Toffoli	C	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	0	16:23	4:07
F. Zetterlund	LW	1	0	1	3	0	2	0	0	17:21	0:58
N. Kovalenko	RW	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	13:05	0:57
M. Granlund	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	21:52	4:12
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	18:11	4:08
W. Eklund	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	16:08	0:54
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:22	0:53
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	14:45	0:00
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	0	12:06	0:00
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:42	0:00
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	11:37	0:00
J. Walman	D	0	2	2	4	0	1	0	0	22:49	4:18
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	20:20	0:00
J. Rutta	D	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	0	19:00	0:00
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	17:49	0:00
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	16:18	0:47
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	16:11	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Georgiev	33	29	4	.879	59:13	Loss
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamEric Comrie SJS First game against WPG since he left (his team until Apr 2026)0 saves on 0
Old teamMario Ferraro WPG First game back in San Jose, his team until Apr 20262 SOG
Old teamTyler Toffoli SJS Faces WPG, his team until Apr 20241 G, 1 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 3.7, SJS 2.6	WPG 4, SJS 3
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	WPG 31.6, SJS 28.6	WPG 33, SJS 35
Win chance	WPG 65%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.4	9	1.16	2	41%	2
SJS M. Celebrini	3.0	6	0.76	2	26%	1
SJS T. Toffoli	2.6	3	0.59	2	27%	1
WPG J. Morrissey	2.4	2	0.96	0	15%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.2	2	1.09	3	37%	1
WPG G. Vilardi	2.2	4	0.86	3	35%	0
SJS M. Granlund	2.2	4	0.77	0	17%	0
SJS J. Walman	2.2	4	0.43	2	13%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	2.2	3	0.70	1	23%	0
SJS F. Zetterlund	2.1	3	0.49	1	20%	1
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.9	2	0.50	0	23%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.8	2	0.57	0	8%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.6	1	0.60	0	17%	0
WPG H. Fleury	1.5	1	0.23	0	4%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.4	0	0.26	0	7%	0
WPG M. Appleton	1.4	1	0.40	1	14%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.4	2	0.48	1	18%	1
SJS W. Smith	1.4	0	0.40	0	16%	0
SJS C. Grundstrom	1.4	2	0.20	0	11%	0
SJS L. Kunin	1.4	1	0.30	0	16%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.3	1	0.54	0	18%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.2	0	0.39	0	15%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.2	1	0.29	0	6%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	1.2	0	0.21	0	4%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.2	1	0.22	0	11%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.1	2	0.37	0	15%	0
SJS C. Ceci	1.1	0	0.26	0	5%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.1	1	0.35	1	5%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.1	2	0.19	0	4%	0
WPG L. Stanley	1.1	0	0.22	0	4%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	1.0	2	0.23	0	11%	0
SJS N. Kovalenko	0.9	0	0.33	1	12%	0
WPG R. Kupari	0.9	0	0.16	0	6%	0
SJS J. Rutta	0.9	5	0.18	0	4%	0
SJS N. Sturm	0.8	1	0.19	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.