Game Recap: WPG 1, SJS 2 (OT), March 1, 2026

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Game Recap

WPG1

Final/OTSun, Mar 1, 2026Every game that night

SJS2

SJS beat WPG 2-1 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.92 expected goals to 2.59. L. Stanley had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. A. Nedeljkovic stopped 27 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
WPG	1	0	0	0	1
SJS	0	0	1	1	2

1st 2:44WPGM. Barron0.04 xG
3rd 1:47SJSW. Smith0.39 xG
OT 1:40SJSM. Misa0.13 xG

Team Stats

WPGSJS

28Shots on goal33

2.59Expected goals2.92

44Shot attempts66

215v5 shots on goal27

0/3Power play0/4

20Hits25

16Blocked shots8

8Penalty minutes6

12Giveaways11

7Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 2.59 xGSJS 2.92 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG28 on goal, 1 scored

SJS33 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Barron	C	1	0	1	2	1	3	+1	0	16:17	0:16
C. Koepke	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	14:09	0:00
T. Pearson	LW	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	10:47	0:00
K. Connor	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	2	23:08	5:15
M. Scheifele	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	22:51	5:15
G. Vilardi	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	19:43	5:15
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	0	17:34	5:15
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	2	15:58	0:45
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	14:04	0:35
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	9:28	0:29
J. Toews	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	8:42	0:29
W. Duehr	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	8:20	0:00
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	3	0	5	+1	0	24:12	0:16
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	23:50	5:15
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	23:20	0:10
E. Salomonsson	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	18:47	0:16
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	13:13	0:00
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	12:47	0:29

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	33	31	2	.939	61:30	OT loss
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	19:58	4:07
W. Smith	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	18:36	4:07
C. Graf	RW	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	17:16	0:18
M. Misa	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+2	0	15:39	3:56
W. Eklund	LW	0	1	1	5	0	1	+1	0	15:33	3:53
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	20:57	3:38
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	3	9	0	0	2	17:31	2:57
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	17:07	3:37
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	13:56	4:43
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	10:22	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	9:33	0:00
P. Regenda	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	7:46	0:00
S. Dickinson	D	0	1	1	4	0	1	+1	0	18:36	0:44
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	21:16	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	20:36	3:58
J. Klingberg	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	19:41	4:02
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	18:19	0:00
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	16:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	28	27	1	.964	61:40	Win
Y. Askarov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele16:28K. Connor15:34G. Vilardi14:18

Line 2A. Lowry12:44A. Iafallo13:21C. Perfetti11:28

Line 3J. Toews8:13G. Nyquist8:59W. Duehr8:02

Line 4C. Koepke9:05M. Barron10:57T. Pearson8:21

Pair 1D. Samberg18:20E. Salomonsson16:27

Pair 2L. Stanley17:31D. DeMelo17:09

Pair 3L. Schenn10:53H. Fleury11:20

SJS

Line 1W. Smith14:29M. Celebrini14:46K. Sherwood14:25

Line 2A. Wennberg11:49P. Kurashev13:20C. Graf12:43

Line 3W. Eklund10:35M. Misa10:59T. Toffoli9:13

Line 4B. Goodrow8:52Z. Ostapchuk8:10P. Regenda7:46

Pair 1S. Mukhamadullin15:15M. Ferraro16:38

Pair 2D. Orlov15:13J. Klingberg15:39

Pair 3S. Dickinson15:36V. Desharnais13:42

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamEric Comrie SJS First game against WPG since he left (his team until Apr 2026)0 saves on 0
Old teamMario Ferraro WPG First game back in San Jose, his team until Apr 20262 SOG
Old teamTyler Toffoli SJS Faces WPG, his team until Apr 20243 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 3.5, SJS 2.7	WPG 1, SJS 2
Total goals	6.2	3
Shots on goal	WPG 27.9, SJS 26.4	WPG 28, SJS 33
Win chance	WPG 62%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.8	2	1.41	0	45%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	3.5	0	1.15	1	31%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.5	0	1.37	0	42%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	2.4	5	0.76	0	25%	0
SJS K. Sherwood	2.4	3	0.54	0	23%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	2.2	0	1.01	0	36%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.2	3	0.60	0	24%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.2	4	0.78	1	25%	1
SJS W. Eklund	1.9	5	0.56	1	16%	0
SJS J. Klingberg	1.7	1	0.51	0	13%	0
SJS P. Regenda	1.6	0	0.31	0	17%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.5	2	0.31	1	13%	1
WPG L. Stanley	1.5	5	0.44	0	11%	0
WPG E. Salomonsson	1.5	1	0.17	0	7%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.4	1	0.45	0	17%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.4	3	0.33	0	5%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.3	0	0.44	0	18%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.3	2	0.45	1	18%	0
WPG G. Nyquist	1.3	0	0.44	0	15%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.3	2	0.40	0	17%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.3	0	0.58	0	16%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.3	1	0.39	0	7%	0
SJS M. Misa	1.2	2	0.43	1	12%	1
SJS P. Kurashev	1.2	2	0.41	0	13%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.2	2	0.23	0	5%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.1	0	0.35	0	6%	0
WPG T. Pearson	1.1	3	0.29	1	13%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.0	2	0.23	1	11%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	1.0	4	0.22	1	4%	0
WPG W. Duehr	0.9	1	0.24	0	12%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	0.9	1	0.24	0	7%	0
WPG L. Schenn	0.8	1	0.15	0	3%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	1	0.15	0	8%	0
SJS V. Desharnais	0.7	2	0.13	0	2%	0
WPG H. Fleury	0.6	0	0.11	0	2%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.6	0	0.12	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.