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Game Recap
WPG3
FinalTue, Oct 22, 2024Every game that night
STL2

WPG beat STL 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.43 expected goals to 3.01. C. Perfetti led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). C. Hellebuyck stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
WPG0303
STL1012
  1. 1st 10:11STLB. Saad0.28 xG
  2. 2nd 8:12WPGN. NiederreiterPP0.06 xG
  3. 2nd 13:58WPGC. Miller0.04 xG
  4. 2nd 17:40WPGK. Connor0.06 xG
  5. 3rd 5:15STLB. Saad0.21 xG

Team Stats

WPGSTL
24Shots on goal29
2.43Expected goals3.01
63Shot attempts60
195v5 shots on goal24
1/2Power play0/2
14Hits22
16Blocked shots21
4Penalty minutes4
12Giveaways22
3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 2.43 xGSTL 3.01 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdSTL goal, 10:11WPG goal, 8:12WPG goal, 13:58WPG goal, 17:40STL goal, 5:15

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG24 on goal, 3 scored
STL29 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. PerfettiC033200+2015:551:26
K. ConnorLW101300-1019:572:05
N. EhlersLW011012+1017:261:58
N. NiederreiterRW1012200013:271:27
M. ScheifeleC000310-2019:382:04
A. LowryC0001120017:040:02
G. VilardiC000000-2016:302:04
V. NamestnikovC000000+2014:361:27
M. AppletonC0000000014:010:02
A. IafalloLW0000000010:351:18
M. BarronC0002210010:160:02
R. KupariC0001010010:040:00
N. PionkD0113150022:271:15
D. SambergD0111210220:560:02
C. MillerD101331+1014:440:15
J. MorrisseyD000200-1221:352:18
D. DeMeloD000110-1020:560:00
L. StanleyD000003+1016:280:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Hellebuyck29272.93159:25Win
E. Comrie000–0:00

STL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. SaadLW202400+2016:301:02
R. ThomasC022101+2015:192:00
J. KyrouRW011410+2019:142:58
P. BuchnevichLW000203-1020:042:58
B. SchennC000212-1217:391:05
J. NeighboursLW000231-1016:092:52
D. HollowayLW000251-1015:571:01
M. JosephRW000310-1015:030:00
A. TexierLW0000010012:401:01
R. FaksaC0001100012:190:00
Z. BolducRW000220-1011:151:02
K. KapanenRW0002500011:120:00
C. ParaykoD011114+1023:060:01
J. FaulkD000022-1024:473:07
R. SuterD000203+1221:380:00
P. BrobergD000002-1020:160:53
P. JosephD0000010012:480:00
M. KesselD0001000012:040:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Binnington24213.87558:27Loss
J. Hofer000–0:00

Storylines That Played Out

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreWPG 3.3, STL 3.1WPG 3, STL 2
Total goals6.45
Shots on goalWPG 31.3, STL 30.6WPG 24, STL 29
Win chanceWPG 53%WPG won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
WPG K. Connor3.430.90136%1
STL J. Kyrou3.140.84132%0
WPG N. Ehlers2.700.70124%0
STL P. Buchnevich2.320.77028%0
WPG G. Vilardi2.300.71030%0
WPG M. Scheifele2.330.93034%0
WPG J. Morrissey2.220.75013%0
STL B. Schenn2.220.62022%0
WPG N. Niederreiter2.120.45122%1
STL J. Faulk2.100.5009%0
STL R. Thomas2.010.92224%0
WPG C. Perfetti1.920.48318%0
STL B. Saad1.940.49223%2
STL J. Neighbours1.920.43023%0
STL C. Parayko1.810.3117%0
STL A. Texier1.700.46019%0
WPG N. Pionk1.630.4016%0
WPG M. Appleton1.500.38014%0
STL D. Holloway1.420.28014%0
WPG A. Lowry1.410.40016%0
STL Z. Bolduc1.420.35014%0
STL M. Joseph1.430.35012%0
STL K. Kapanen1.320.32012%0
WPG M. Barron1.320.23011%0
WPG C. Miller1.330.2115%1
WPG A. Iafallo1.100.30012%0
WPG V. Namestnikov1.100.40014%0
WPG D. Samberg1.110.2113%0
STL R. Suter1.020.2204%0
STL P. Broberg1.000.3006%0
STL P. Joseph1.000.2104%0
WPG D. DeMelo1.010.3104%0
WPG L. Stanley1.000.1503%0
STL R. Faksa0.910.2009%0
WPG R. Kupari0.910.1706%0
STL M. Kessel0.610.1403%0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.